Bitcoin encountered a massive counterattack by short sellers above $100,000. It went up to $100,000 and then fell down in one day. It was defeated last night just as it rushed forward the day before yesterday. As a result, it continued to fall during the day today, plummeting to $95,250 at its lowest point. As a result, the strong breakthrough that the bulls had worked hard for for many days turned into a false breakthrough.
The sharp drop in Bitcoin this time is the result of the superposition of multiple factors:
(1) Reduced expectations of interest rate cuts
Yesterday, the U.S. released employment data. The job market was hotter than expected, with 8 million job openings. It looks like companies are doing quite well, which means that the previous assertion that "interest rate cuts are needed to save the U.S. economy" is no longer that important. Following this, the interest rate market predicts that the probability of a rate cut in January is basically zero (<5%), and the rate cuts predicted for March and June have also become smaller.
(2) Trump’s remarks increased market uncertainty
Trump made some imperialist remarks yesterday, saying he wanted to change the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, and planned to merge with Canada, and even use force to retake Greenland. These remarks obviously intensified the risk aversion in the market.
(3) Large investors dump the market to support their short positions
Data shows that more than 2,000 bitcoins flowed out last night, and now it has become more than 9,000. This shows that there are still big investors who are buying the bottom during the decline, buying halfway up the mountain, and then intend to hold it for a long time. The funds that fell from the market came from big investors or dealers who smashed the market, and they may not be a group of people. Whether it is for hedging needs or funds to cooperate with short selling, they may be involved.
The next thing to pay attention to is, to what level will Bitcoin fall?
Bitcoin has fallen back to the range of 90,000-100,000. If it cannot hold 95,000, the structure will retest the 90,000 support. It has been said before that the 90,000 support cannot be broken. It will be fine as long as it does not break 90,000. If it falls below 90,000, Bitcoin will experience a stampede and a large number of people will die!
If it rebounds today and rebounds to around $99,000, that will be our position to lighten up. If it does not rebound, or falls below $97,000 again after the rebound, then the next target will be $91,000. The further target is $86,000, which is also the starting point for the rise.
If we reduce our positions, we will reduce our positions significantly at $99,000, and the same is true for other currencies. Next, we will buy at a lower point, and the key support levels are around $91,000 and $86,000.
This round of Bitcoin is a little different. It will not repeat the previous cyclical theory. It is more likely that BTC will alternate between pullbacks and rebounds. It is unlikely to continue falling like the previous bear market.
The copycats are bleeding like a river today. The copycats are a bit tragic. They can't keep up when Bitcoin rises, and they don't pull up when it falls.
It is highly likely that the awesome alpha will not come out of the secondary exchanges in the future. Binance has now become a place for shipment. Without the get-rich-quick effect, the market share will gradually be divided and eroded.
In the future, all the awesome alphas will come out of the chain and meme.
As a sector that can bring crypto out of the circle, meme will also have hot spots to play with from time to time. After this wave of pullback, it is necessary to ambush another wave of hot spots.
These asset categories are not necessarily pure memes, they may also be application-based. Even if they do not follow the meme model, they will adopt the meme issuance method. For example, $virtual (ai agent luanchpad), $buzz (DeFi agents), and $hype (L1+perp dex), which have a market value of more than 1B recently, are not only pure meme/IP narratives, but also have certain application scenarios, but they all adopt a more native issuance method, from the chain to the CEX.
