BTC continues to fluctuate. The so-called volatile market means that there is no stimulation of trend sentiment and no strong liquidity. It is driven by market sentiment and fluctuates between 92,000 and 98,000. Once the sentiment is good, it will be pulled above 98,000. Once the sentiment is bad, it will drop to 98,000 and grind back and forth around the current 94,000.
Currently, the trading volume of Bitcoin is getting smaller and smaller, which shows that the selling pressure at this position has weakened, the decline is weak, and the downward space is limited in the short term. The probability of a rebound is relatively high.
However, the market currently lacks factors for a surge:
(1) Expectations of a Fed rate cut further weakened;
Minutes of the December meeting: We are at or close to slowing the pace of rate cuts, and some officials believe that it is necessary to keep the pace in December. Inflation will continue to slow, but the policies of the new government may increase the risk of price pressures.
(2) Crypto market liquidity has not improved in the short term
In the days after New Year's Day, there was an overall positive inflow, especially USDC performed well, indicating that after the US investor holiday, the entry sentiment and overall liquidity have recovered to a certain extent. However, the net inflow began to slow down from 1/4, especially on 1/7, it turned into a net outflow (red box). Compared with the previous November, when a large amount of funds poured in every day (white box), it can be seen that the current follow-up funds are still relatively cautious.
(3) Bitcoin ETF continues to see large net outflows
FBTC+ARKB+BITB+BTC had a net outflow of US$418 million yesterday, a slight increase compared to the net outflow of US$414 million on the previous trading day. The selling pressure on Bitcoin ETF is still very large.
(4) There is a large amount of locked-in Bitcoin between 97,000 and 100,000
From the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, it can be seen that there is a relatively large locked-in position in the Bitcoin range between 97,000 and 100,000.
Therefore, the rebound space for Bitcoin is relatively limited, and the rebound height may not exceed US$98,000. After the rebound, it may fluctuate at a low level for a period of time. There is still a risk of a deep decline in the short term.
Let’s talk about the Shanzhai. This round of hellish difficulty, not to mention the short-term situation, even long-term players who have always been the final winners in the past will be confused if they don’t choose the right coin. The brothers who can survive this have a steely will that can even ring through the security check machine!
This round of copycat season has not really started yet. It will probably take at least half a year to a year before the violent copycat season can really begin.
We are still in the early stages of rate cuts, and the transmission of liquidity takes time. The extremely simplified transmission relationship is: US rate cuts > currency issuance and balance sheet expansion > liquidity surges in various capital markets > everyone has money > everyone's expectations for the future have improved > all-in high-risk assets > high-risk asset prices surge. The final result is that liquidity slowly overflows from low-risk assets to high-risk assets layer by layer.
The time for this transmission is measured in quarters or even years, which is not too fast. So if I were to guess, it would probably take at least half a year to a year.
How to layout now?
1. Secondary altcoins should not touch new coins
You can refer to this standard to match the bluest altcoins that have experienced at least one cycle. Don’t be a Fomo. Wait patiently for the buying point. When you catch it, pull the trigger hard and wait for the flowers to bloom.
2. Take a small amount of money to the place with the most liquidity on the chain to seek alpha returns
Base and Sol are both good starting points. You must learn them. If you want to play meme, don't go directly to the second level. First, come to the chain to feel the rhythm of meme. If you have never played on the chain, you will definitely die if you go directly to the second level. Investing is a game that rewards patient people. Be more patient, my friend.
