From recent times until around January 5 next year, this time window may gradually enter a better buying time for Bitcoin.

1. On the macro level of dollar liquidity: due to the regular short-term liquidity squeeze at the end of the year, resulting in a short-term spike in SOFR, squeezing risk assets.

It is expected that liquidity will recover around January 4 (at that time, SOFR will return to below EFFR, which was also the case at the end of 2023; SOFR will return to normal on January 4, 2024).

Specifically, the logic chain is: financial institutions start to reduce leverage and increase cash or cash equivalents in response to regulatory compliance at the end of the year -> short-term market liquidity is withdrawn -> less money leads to a spike in ultra-short-term financing rates -> strategies in the US stock market that are extremely sensitive to short-term rates are forced to close positions -> US stocks are squeezed -> Bitcoin is squeezed accordingly.

2. Large holder situation:

On the BTC chain: Long-term holders (LTH) have almost stopped selling after a large amount of selling (totalling 1 million BTC) began after the election and the main upward wave started.

Bitfinex large holders: have started to continuously buy BTC spot at around a 0.2% premium.

Bitfinex leveraged long positions on BTC: increasing positions since the evening of the 28th.

3. Americans are going back to work:

Recently, there has been almost no issuance of USDT at the level of 1 billion dollars, confirming that MSTR has not been buying coins. It is expected that Americans will start returning to work to continue buying coins after January 1 (MSTR is a bit of an exception; the optimistic scenario is a two-week blackout period from January 14 to February 5 when they cannot finance and buy coins; the pessimistic scenario is a four-week blackout period starting from January 1 to February 5 when they cannot finance and buy coins).

4. The correction has reached its bottom:

Repeatedly bottoming around 92-93, there has been about a 20% pullback from the high of 108,000 to 92,000. In this round of the bull market, except for the black swan on August 5, which caused a 30% correction, most corrections have been around 20%.

5. The bubble squeeze is relatively clean:

Even though last Friday, US stocks fell mainly due to a short-term liquidity squeeze, with the Nasdaq dropping as much as 2% at one point, I noticed that Bitcoin also dropped a little over 2% around 93, which felt like a clear indication of a relatively clean bubble squeeze.

6. On the order book: In the last couple of days, there have been some relatively dense and large orders starting on Binance's spot market.

Altcoin: It seems to be losing momentum.

Since Bitcoin does not drop when the market falls, it indicates that altcoins have reached a relative bottom. Bitcoin cannot keep falling indefinitely; it will bounce back. When Bitcoin rebounds, altcoins will rebound even more.

The correct strategy is:

Buying may make you feel scared, but this is the right time.

Selling may make you feel reluctant, but this is a rational choice.

If you can operate against the trend, building positions during corrections and buying boldly during panic sell-offs, you will have an advantage over most people.

Build positions in batches, operate patiently.

Do not chase the rise; instead, build positions during corrections.

Gradually build positions. If the price drops by 5%, and you invest all your funds into altcoins at once, you might panic and sell if the market experiences a larger correction (like a drop of 10%, 20%, or even 30%).

The correct strategy is: when the price drops by 5%, first invest 10% of your funds. This way, when a larger correction occurs later (such as 10%, 20%, or 30%), you can continue to gradually increase your position instead of being thrown out by market fluctuations.

What if the correction does not deepen further? That's okay. Don't invest all your funds at once out of fear of missing out; this may force you to exit in a deeper correction.

There will be more opportunities for corrections and building positions in the future.

In a highly volatile market, you cannot perfectly grasp every fluctuation. You do not need to buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point; just focus on long-term returns.