Judgment of the Bottom of Altcoins and the Key Role of BTC

At the current stage, the bottom of altcoins is clearly the focus of everyone's attention. Based on the logic you mentioned, let's analyze how to further judge the bottom and the impact of BTC:

1. Possibility of Altcoin Bottom

• Previous Pin Position: Typically, the previous pin point is a strong support area, as this is where significant capital previously entered. If altcoins can stop falling and rebound in this area, it may confirm the bottom.

• Hypothesis of Breaking 10%: If the bottom indeed breaks the previous low by more than 10%, it may indicate a further decline in the market's risk appetite for altcoins. In this case, the bull market may be delayed until around March, but it also provides a better opportunity for accumulating at lower prices.

2. Key Role of Bitcoin

• BTC Stability Means Altcoin Viability: Bitcoin is still the market's benchmark, and its stability is critical for whether altcoins can rebound quickly. As long as BTC remains above strong support, the rebound of altcoins may just be a matter of time, potentially even within a few days.

• Impact of BTC Breaking Support: If Bitcoin unexpectedly falls below an important support level, it will trigger a chain reaction across the entire market, potentially causing further declines in altcoins. However, this process may also accelerate the bottom formation.

Operational Suggestions

• Short-term Strategy: Focus on the key support areas of Bitcoin (such as important daily support levels of BTC) and combine them with the pin positions of altcoins to determine entry timing.

• Medium to Long-term Perspective: Even if there is a short-term break of support, the bull market timeline may simply be postponed; accumulating at lower prices remains the main strategy.

Summary

The stability of Bitcoin is the core condition for a rapid rebound of altcoins. At this stage, it is advisable to patiently observe market fluctuations, combine the pin positions and BTC trends, and gradually prepare for low-position layouts, waiting for the arrival of the main upward trend in the bull market.