Potential macro risks in the United States in 2025

Risk 1-Debt risk caused by fiscal deficit

Trump policy->Good for the stock market, but will increase fiscal deficit->Increase in fiscal deficit will make US debt a threat

The issuance of US debt has increased significantly, exacerbating market concerns about the sustainability of US debt and selling US debt

Risk 2-China/Trade War

The risk of trade war is not Trump's policy but China's countermeasures. The trend of US stocks in 2019 is also tortuous

Risk 3-Recurrence of inflation (long-term risk)

If inflation recurs, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again, and the United States will reappear the risk of recession.

The first two risks have a high probability of occurrence, but they are short-term risks and have a small impact. The last risk has a low probability of occurrence, but the impact is huge. When there is this momentum, the market is likely to hype.