Yesterday, BTC continued to fall after a brief surge in the afternoon. As the US stock market opened, BTC followed closely and finally broke through 94,000, with the lowest price falling to around 93,400, triggering the long stop loss of 94,000 recommended yesterday. I did not expect it, but I still have to admit my mistake. But for now, the reasons for me to turn to short are still not sufficient. First, the market is still in the large range of fluctuations previously judged, 94,000-107,000, and it has not really fallen below. Second, the highest intraday decline of the Nasdaq 100 last night was more than 2%, and the lowest point just hit the lower edge of the support area. In the late trading, it recovered half of the decline and rose to the upper edge of the range support. In the case that the daily level did not fall below the lower edge of the support, I am still bullish on the Nasdaq, and the trading suggestion is still to buy on dips, and the Nasdaq is expected to break new highs. Maybe I will be slapped in the face later, but I am still bullish on the Nasdaq without meeting the conditions for turning bearish.
If we are to shift to a bearish outlook on BTC, there must either be negative news, BTC must break below recent lows, and it should be a daily-level breakdown that disrupts the large range of fluctuations. Or the NASDAQ must break below support levels and turn into a bearish trend. Of course, this does not mean I see a bullish long-term trend for BTC; I have emphasized looking for range fluctuations over the past week or two. It's just that the market has reached the lower part of the range, and since I am bullish on the NASDAQ, I recommend buying BTC near the lower boundary of the range instead of chasing shorts.
As for my own trading yesterday, I set my stop-loss point quite low, near the recent low points, and it did not hit the stop-loss level because the recent long positions I took at the lows were not all meant for short-term trading; at least half of the long positions were meant to be held for a longer duration, with the target being a return to the upper boundary of the range, which is above 100,000. In terms of operations, I reduced the higher-cost long positions when a rebound occurred yesterday, then added back the long positions at a lower price point. If the market presents opportunities, I alternate my operations to try to lower the holding costs. This approach can serve as a reference for everyone.
There are no significant suggestions for today's trading. The NASDAQ had no clear direction on Friday. If there are no special news stimuli, it is expected that BTC will maintain a low-level fluctuation over the weekend. Short-term operations are quite difficult, but the range is also not large, so there's no need to fuss over it. If you agree with my forecast that the market will rebound after fluctuating at a low level, it would be a good idea to look for low-level buying and holding over the weekend, with the stop-loss set just below the recent low points.
