Hot topics of Master Chat:

Today is Friday. If there is no special market fluctuation over the weekend, I guess my updates will be suspended. But let's anticipate the market trends next week in advance. After all, no one knows when the market will quietly bring you surprises or challenges.

The first thing to watch is the Fed's decision to cut interest rates early next Thursday. A 25 basis point cut is almost certain. Generally speaking, there will be a wave of market fluctuations six hours before the meeting. If the rate cut is in line with expectations, a market rebound is also expected.

Therefore, this news will not have too much negative impact on the market. The operating strategy is still to buy on dips and take appropriate profits when there is a rebound. It is also safe to make a small profit.

Next, pay attention to Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 19. If Japan does not raise interest rates and there are not strong expectations for a January hike, the market may very well take this opportunity to push higher again.

Recent news suggests that Japan's interest rate hike may be postponed until March next year, which also means that from a long-term perspective, a significant correction may indeed occur between March and May next year.

This significant correction generally refers to a pullback of about 32-38% from the upward space from November 5 to March. If viewed from the weekly level adjustment, market fluctuations during that period may be more intense.

However, based on the current situation, there are no signs of such a deep adjustment. Therefore, I personally speculate that there will generally not be a risk of deep adjustment in the market between December and March. As long as we avoid the short-term impact from Japan's interest rate hike, the idea of buying on dips remains applicable, and there is no need to be overly cautious.

As for the major asset, the key support level is currently around the 100k mark. If this line holds stable, the next targets may be 120k to 150k. Even if there are some short-term corrections, I personally believe that this wave of adjustment is more likely to occur after March next year.

What I refer to as a significant correction actually means that the pullback of the major asset will be an adjustment at the daily to weekly level, with an overall expected correction space of about 32%. This is based on support level data, especially considering that early investors below 94k have not shown obvious panic selling.

The current mid-term support remains relatively stable, with support levels between 94.5k and 98.5k still solid. Although some funds have flowed towards the 100k area, these are mainly short-term investors, so their presence is not enough to break the 95k support without significant negative news.

Trend analysis:

Resistance level reference:

First resistance level: 105000

Second resistance level: 101500

Support level reference:

First support level: 99000

Second support level: 98000

Today's advice:

From the price action following the breakout at 100K, the price consistently encounters resistance above 100K and has shown signs of decline. Therefore, the current focus is on verifying upward momentum rather than anticipating a breakout to new highs. It is a more prudent strategy to operate after confirming upward momentum.

In today’s trading, the price declined due to the failure to retest yesterday’s high. Therefore, in the short term, we can observe whether the rebound is effective in conjunction with trading volume, and flexibly adjust positions. Currently, the price is continuously testing the highs, and since it is not far from the new high, be cautious of profit-taking selling pressure; absolutely avoid chasing prices to buy into a rising market!

12.13 Trend analysis:

Long entry reference: Range of 98950-98850 for light position; if it falls back to around 98000-97450, can buy directly. Target: 100500-101400

Short entry reference: Not applicable for now