Hot topics of Master Chat:
During the two days of National Day, the White House said that Iran was preparing to attack Israel; the United States was actively supporting Israel in its defense preparations to deal with this attack. The news caused a sharp increase in volatility and a sharp drop in the market.
This reminded me of Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel in mid-April, which drove the price of Bitcoin to over $50,000 that weekend.
Recently, the trend of Bitcoin and US stocks has deviated from liquidity. Risk appetite has surged, but liquidity has declined. The quarter-end position adjustment of institutions is also an important influencing factor, which will bring fluctuations to the market.
The short-term trend is ahead of liquidity, but it cannot always deviate from it. Liquidity must also keep up. So we need to see whether liquidity improves after entering October. In addition, in October, the US stock market has entered the earnings season. This fundamental driving logic will prevail in the short term.
The master believes that under ideal circumstances this is also the best script, so we still need to wait and see.
Master looks at the trend:
Bitcoin broke through 62K yesterday. Although it seems to be rising, it has encountered resistance from 62.4K and the 120-day moving average after the rise and has fallen back to 60K.
With the Middle East war still unresolved, the situation has intensified, geopolitical risks are increasing, and commodity and oil prices are also rising.
From the technical analysis point of view, the current rebound is due to the upward divergence in the short term. The current 60K is once again held, and the short-term low is temporarily determined to be around 60K. At the same time, the opportunity to enter the market on the ultra-short-term basis can also be considered.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 61700
Second resistance level: 60100
If the price breaks through the first resistance level, the probability of retesting 62K will increase. However, it is still in a short-term rebound stage, so the possibility of a decline cannot be ruled out.
At this time, we can expect the 4-hour K-line to engulf the previous big negative line, and it is expected to go sideways and hold 61K for backtesting.
Support level reference:
First support level: 60750
Second support level: 60100
Since the chart shows that Bitcoin remains in the early stage of 61K, I suggest that you do not set 61K as support, but set it around 60.7K.
Currently, only if the currency price holds the first support can it be judged as an adjustment to raise the low point and maintain the rebound view.
If it falls below and returns to 60K again, the selling pressure below will be absorbed and we need to pay attention to the risk of further decline.
Today's trading suggestions:
In today's trading, since there is an upward divergence in the short term, we can expect a rebound after the adjustment and conduct short-term operations based on the rebound point of view.
The current 60.7K is considered a short-term low, and during adjustments, a layout can be made near 61K. And respond at 60.7K, this trading strategy can be used for ultra-short-term operations.
If the adjustment is a small negative line, you can continue to rebound; if it is a large negative line, you can maintain a bearish view.
10.3 Short-term pre-buried orders:
Long entry reference: 60100-60400 range long in batches, defense 500 points, target 61700-62400
Reference for short entry: short in batches between 62400-62700, defense 500 points, target 61700-60750
