News overview:
Fed policy expectations: According to CME's "Fed Watch", the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September with a probability of 72% and a probability of 50 basis points. This shows that the market's expectations for rate cuts are relatively strong, which may have a certain impact on the financial market.
Political dynamics: Polls show Harris leading Trump in support, while Trump has mentioned using cryptocurrencies to replace traditional banks, indicating that cryptocurrencies may play an important role in future policies.
Bitcoin's Status: BlackRock said Bitcoin is seen as an alternative to global fiat currencies, a view that could increase its status and trust among investors.
Technical analysis:
Bitcoin (BCH): Bitcoin has recently encountered strong pressure at $58,500. Although there may be a false break in the short term, the overall selling pressure in the $58,500-59,500 range is heavy. In the short term, it may take several small surges to release these pressures in order to create conditions for the price to return to above $60,000. The support level below is to focus on the retracement near $56,700.
Ethereum (Two Pies): Although Bitcoin hit a new high, Ethereum’s rebound was relatively weak, with the price failing to break through the daily concussive downward channel, and there is significant short-term pressure above $2,400. For intraday operations, it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure in the range of 2,380-2,410 US dollars and go short, and below to focus on the support level of 2,340-2,310 US dollars for rebound operations.
Altcoins: Altcoins have been strong recently, with an upward turn at the daily level. It is expected that this upward trend may last for about a week. However, as Bitcoin enters a high-level shock, altcoins may fall in advance. Specifically, ZRO's target is $4.3, and FLOKI is in the bottoming stage. It remains to be seen whether there will be a strong rebound in the future.
Summarize:
The current market is facing the influence of multiple factors, including the Fed's policy expectations, political dynamics and the discussion of Bitcoin as a substitute for legal currency, which may have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. On the technical side, Bitcoin is facing strong pressure, and the short-term trend still needs to pay attention to key support and resistance levels; Ethereum is not strong enough to rebound, so pay attention to the short-term pressure and support range; altcoins are strong, but it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the high-level shock of Bitcoin.
