It's really abominable!

Mentougou actually transferred 500 BTC to prepare for sale, and the US government is also transferring and selling a large amount of ETH. Executives of the CB exchange are planning to sell $900 million worth of stocks, and the sales will start on November 18 and last until November 14, 2025!

$2.7 billion will be unlocked in November, $3 billion in December, and $4 billion in January. Brothers, this situation is really too difficult to bear. These project parties are really unethical. It seems that they will not give up until they squeeze everyone's money dry.

#美国大选后涨或跌？ #美联储利率决议来袭 #11月市场预测

Are you achieving contrarian behavior in trading? Then you're not far from earning 10 million!

We all know that trading is contrarian. But what exactly does it go against?

And how should we go against it? Here, I want to share some thoughts based on my own trading experience.

The vast majority of investors conduct trades based on their own feelings and emotions.

Take profit-taking as an example: when profits are made, investors worry about giving back those profits, so most people choose to take profits.

This behavior of taking profits is actually to eliminate the fear within retail investors.

Now let's look at stop-losses: the pain brought by cutting losses can be described as deeply etched in the heart, more unbearable than any other pain in the world.

Therefore, to escape this pain, many retail investors are unwilling to cut losses, which is also a result of following their emotions.

Furthermore, in terms of fund management, position management is an extremely tedious and complex task that requires constant adjustment of positions based on market conditions, and this requires investors to have strong execution ability and patience.

The essence of human nature is to seek benefits and avoid harm. Nowadays, people don't even have the patience to watch a movie, let alone patiently manage their positions.

Because trading is both complex and painful, and human nature inherently dislikes complexity and pain.

The key to truly being contrarian lies in whether you can control your emotions and feelings, and whether you can remain calm in every trade.

The method is to establish your own stable trading system, to guide our trading behavior with a standardized framework, so that each of our trades is no longer blind.

#美联储利率决议来袭 #美国大选后涨或跌？ #11月市场预测 #BANANA、ADA、ENA大额解锁

This week's focus is mainly on the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the interest rate decision on November 8. Against the backdrop of these two significant events, the impact of other data is relatively small.

U.S. Election
The U.S. election has entered its final sprint stage, with competition between the Democratic and Republican candidates becoming increasingly intense. Previous data indicated that Trump's approval rating exceeded 60%, far ahead of Harris. However, recent polling data shows that their support levels are nearly equal. The interpretation of the impact of polling data on prices is as follows:

When Trump's polling data peaked at 67%, Bitcoin reached a historical high of around 73776. However, during the subsequent decline, despite significantly positive non-farm data, prices continued to fall.

The main reason for the decline is that American media exposed a platform suspected of wash trading, which caused Trump's winning probability to drop sharply.

Although BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF saw the largest single-day net inflow, the liquidation of assets by the former largest cryptocurrency exchange Mt.Gox triggered market panic.

Currently, we need to pay close attention to the performance of different camps in swing states. According to market news reports, Trump is performing better than Harris in 7 swing states, suggesting a higher probability of his victory. However, before the official results are announced, the risk of uncertainty is gradually increasing, and we need to maintain a cautious attitude.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in November is as high as 98%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 1.1%. Given the high consensus in market expectations on this matter, combined with the recent market rally, we need to be wary of the risk of "buying the expectation and selling the fact."

Data-related Situation
From a data perspective, the Bitcoin spot ETF continues to show a significant net inflow.

As Trump is seen as a cryptocurrency-friendly president and his polling data still indicates a considerable chance of victory, the market's expectations for his increased winning probability have triggered optimistic sentiment regarding the cryptocurrency outlook.

#美国大选后涨或跌？ #比特币矿工收入飙升 #美联储利率决议来袭

The bottom of Bitcoin (BTC) is forming. When the closing price falls below the stop-loss level of 67,478, it is normal for the blue line to touch 67,864 during the pullback process, and this point can even become a support level.

We can try to focus on the two levels of 69,000 and 71,286.

However, it is important to note that if the closing price cannot break through the high of 73,620 during the day, the price may experience another decline.

At the daily level, the level of 65,257 is crucial. Regardless of Bitcoin's subsequent trend, as long as the daily closing price does not fall below this level, the upward trend will continue.

Once this price level is breached, the downward trend will further intensify.

Bitcoin still has the potential to move to the level of 74,642, which is the C leg of the ABC pattern formed on the daily chart. Analyzing from a pattern perspective, the pullback may start from this position of 74,642 and could pull back to 59,000.

If the ABC pattern further expands, we can also pay attention to the level of 86,331, which is the next resistance level.

It should be clear that all these price movements are part of an adjustment action, and the main trend of Bitcoin is upward.

#美国大选后涨或跌？ #美联储利率决议来袭 #BANANA、ADA、ENA大额解锁

Abandon the fantasy of a (full) bull market and embrace a life of volatility!

Before discussing this issue, let's first align our granularity and unify our understanding. Ask yourself, what does a big bull market mean to you?

I believe that for most people, a big bull market looks like the comprehensive rises of 2020 and 2021, where the only difference is how much it rises, and anything bought will be profitable. I was the same way before.

At the beginning of last year, I was discussing with a few friends how ordinary people should seize the last round of the bull market and when this bull market would arrive. Looking back now, I realize that the bull has long passed us by; BTC has risen from 20k at the beginning of 2023 to now 69k, yet everyone is still waiting for that fully blossoming bull market.

Reflecting back has shown me many things, one of which is that the era of traders has arrived, and the era of holders is deceased. Moving forward, there will no longer be such large-scale comprehensive rises in the crypto space; what will come instead are cycles, tracks, directions, and rises of individual coins.

The last bull market cannot be replicated; externally, the pandemic rampaged and the Federal Reserve loosened its policies, while internally, the ETH ecosystem experienced complete prosperity and explosion, together constructing the last round of comprehensive rising bull market. Everything was filled with historical randomness and the development theory of things; the former is accidental, while the latter is the inevitability of the development of things, which is also why the performance of ETH in this round has been so unsatisfactory, because the story has already ended. Although this may sound a bit harsh, but this is the reality.

#美国大选后涨或跌？ #美联储利率决议来袭 #BANANA、ADA、ENA大额解锁

BTC is currently maintaining a bullish trend overall, but it is not in the kind of upward mode typical of a main bull run.

The characteristics of a main bull run should be a rapid entry into the overbought state and the ability to sustain an upward trend for a month while remaining in overbought conditions. However, BTC is currently rising gradually, with every 5k increase followed by a 3k pullback, which leans more towards a divergence situation.

We will wait and see how the market develops after the election results are announced this week. Will the bullish trend accelerate further, or will it start to form a topping pattern?

As of now, although BTC is overall in a bullish situation, it theoretically should continue to rise.

However, if it fails to break through 80k or even 737 later on, subsequently forming a double top, that would not be surprising. In such a case, one could continue to hold the spot position.

#美国大选后行情预测 #美国大选后涨或跌？ #比特币矿工收入飙升

Let's talk about TON:

The TON cryptocurrency has truly impressed me; I've made quite a bit of money from it over the past few months. I started getting into Telegram Q and learned about TON in less than a month.

During that time, I basically put all my funds and energy into TON and NOT, and both of these cryptocurrencies have been quite good to me, not letting me incur losses.

I remember back then, I was recommending TON every day, and I really wonder if the owner of Telegram would give me some rewards if he found out?

TON's performance in the first half of this year has been outstanding, ranking among the top cryptocurrencies.

However, its performance in the second half of the year has been a bit mediocre, leaving no deep impression. Looking back, it rose from a low of 2 dollars in February to a historical peak of 8.2 dollars in June.

If it weren't for the arrest and prosecution of Telegram's CEO Durov in August, which caused a sharp drop in the company's stock price, I really wouldn't know how high the price of TON would have risen.

In the past 30 days, the price of this coin has plummeted by more than 20%, and its current trading price is around 4.9 dollars.

Although the current situation seems a bit grim, looking at it from another angle, it is now in a very attractive buying range, and it might be one of the best cryptocurrencies to invest in at the current market price. There's a saying that goes well: buy when no one is paying attention.

If you have some spare cash, you might as well buy some to stash away; I believe TON won't disappoint you.

#美国大选后行情预测 #非农就业人数大幅降温 #TON生态

From the 12-hour level, we have now entered the divergence area.

In principle, do not chase the price near this "red circle" because this is a position where it is very easy to see a pullback after a rise. Currently, the 12-hour level is experiencing a correction process.

However, there is non-farm data being released tonight.

According to past practices, if the entire day is in a state of continuous decline, then when the data is released in the evening, if a bottom divergence occurs in the 30-minute or 1-2 hour levels to match it, the market will show a V-shaped reversal; if there is no bottom divergence to match, do not make any trades.

#美国大选后行情预测 #下一BTC历史新高是多少？ #市场关注美国非农数据

Good morning, brothers! Should we buy in when there is a sharp drop early on?

This wave of volume drop was actually expected; I just didn't anticipate the high-level fluctuations to last an entire day, only starting to drop in volume after 9 PM, which was later than I personally expected.

Additionally, with the US elections about to start, there will definitely be various news hype in the coming days, and the market will experience significant volatility, which is also a consistent tactic of those cunning market manipulators.

However, 69500 was originally the point where I planned to reverse my short position to long. Now there is an accelerated drop in the smaller timeframe, and if a lower shadow candle can form, we can attempt to go long.

You can buy in batches in the range of 69300 - 69000, and also leave a position for averaging down; if it drops below 68300, make sure to exit quickly.

#市场关注美国非农数据 #美国大选后行情预测 #下一BTC历史新高是多少？

BTC is currently in a state where there is no obvious pressure above and lack of support below.

Today is the last day of this month. From the perspective of market makers' layout, if we follow the trend of Nasdaq, then in these two days, BTC will neither fall sharply nor rise sharply. Sideways fluctuations will be the most ideal. trend.

BTC is just 200 points away from a new high.

It shot as high as 73,600 last night but failed to break through and is now back around 72,200.

Don't panic because of its pullback, and don't guess the top easily. If there is an opportunity for a price plunge, you must seize the opportunity to increase your position.

Bitcoin looks promising for a breakout, and once it successfully breaks through and establishes itself at new highs, the secondary market will be activated.

A breakthrough can rekindle market confidence, and the real uptrend will begin.

The current upward trend of BTC is relatively significant, so you can continue to choose to go long on dips.

The spot market may soon reach a turning point. Non-agricultural data will be released this Friday. The market is paying attention to the Fed's interest rate cuts in November and December. The possibility of not cutting interest rates in November is almost zero. Ultimately, it depends on the performance of non-agricultural data.

Today, both the currency circle and the stock market have entered "Trump trading time."
However, judging from the current situation, Trump's probability of winning is decreasing, and Harris seems to be catching up from behind and has the support of many big names and capital.

In particular, Obama came forward to stand up, which conveyed a message to all Americans: skin color, race, and gender will not be obstacles for a person to serve as president. Only the actual interests of the United States are the key factors for everyone to make choices.

Now that the election has entered the final stage, the outcome may actually have been determined, but it is just those large interest groups, financial groups and mysterious organizations that are acting for retail investors.

When the election results are confirmed, the stock and currency markets will surely fall sharply.

Haha, first fall and then rise, this is their layout strategy. You must understand that the purpose of the bankers is to make money, and all the benefits are created and arranged by them, just to lure retail investors and let the leeks take over without hesitation.

#下一BTC历史新高是多少？ #比特币白皮书16周年 #美国大选后行情预测

ETH has been plundered up and down here.
Now focus on the price reaction.
If it breaks upwards again, then 2800 is possible.
If it distributes downwards, I may need to pay attention to M15 bullish OB and OB at two positions.

#下一BTC历史新高是多少？

The market capitalization of BTC has reached over 58%

The increase in proportion and the rising prices mean that funds are currently concentrated in BTC

In other words, we are not yet in a true bull market

When the proportion decreases and the price remains strong, it will be time to sell and run away

#狗狗币创数月新高

【High Yield Strategy】

When playing the ETH chain, you should keep an eye on the SOL link, because the speed of token issuance means SOL launches first, followed by ETH.

So first monitor the launch results on the SOL chain. If the K-line trend is favorable, it indicates high enthusiasm and strong consensus. At the same time, analyze whether the concept can become popular on ETH, and then wait on the ETH chain for the new launch of the same project. You will achieve extremely high returns!

#狗狗币创数月新高

The price is higher than 4-hour EMA200, which is a strong currency.

The price is lower than 4-hour EMA200, which is a weak currency.

The entanglement of the 4-hour EMA moving average group represents a volatile currency.

The short arrangement of the daily EMA moving average group represents a junk currency.

#狗狗币创数月新高

Yesterday I researched the four mainstream wash trading accumulation models.

1. BONK PIZZA - This is a wash trading accumulation model characterized by three waves of decline, with each bottom getting lower. This creates extreme fear, but the advantage is evident: the subsequent upward movement tends to be strong because the wash is thorough, which is very good for the market makers and not friendly to retail investors.

2. ORID PEPE - This model involves three waves of decline, with the lowest point occurring in the second wave. If you don't buy in time, you may miss out as the bottoms keep getting higher.

3. TAO - This model features increasingly higher bottoms, which means most people will miss out.

4. SHIB - This model is characterized by continuous oscillation within a range. If you haven't researched it, you probably won't hold onto it, and retail investors are left confused.

#狗狗币创数月新高

The bloody lessons learned from losing money

1. Shorting new coins with stop-losses has a much higher chance of making money than going long.

2. For promising low-cap coins, be sure to double your investment back; hold a portion and take profits in waves. If it drops to the cost price, remember not to use your principal to buy the dip, as it can be risky.

3. If a friend tells you to invest in a low-cap coin, make sure to check their cost price. It's acceptable to share the loss, but it's not acceptable for them to ask you to buy in at a high price after they've made a significant profit.

4. The quickest way to understand a project is not by looking at official announcements but by observing the community chat atmosphere. There are many known and unknown negative insights that can be uncovered from there.

5. Evaluating the coin price in the early stages before the token launch is crucial, as it determines whether to enter at a high or low price. Use similar projects in the same sector for benchmarking.

#比特币布林带收窄至低水平

I increased some spot positions in $ETH yesterday, and currently the largest position is ETH. I continue to wait for the next round of shining and heating up.

BTC is already at 71000 while ETH is still at 2620, not yet reaching the previous highs. The ETHBTC exchange rate has slightly adjusted, waiting for the rate to return to welcome you is a 3000 ETH.

#比特币布林带收窄至低水平

Latest Urgent Update on Erbing 🔥

The Erbing market was originally in a weak position, but today, driven by the surge in the Bitcoin market, it has also broken through the 2600 point threshold. The current key resistance level in the latest ranking is around the 2660~2690 range, which is the breakout point from October 2nd. Given the current situation, it may possibly surge to this position.

Current focus

Short-term resistance at 2660~2690
Short-term support at 2490~2520

Short-term trend: Given the current situation, if the trading volume does not continue to expand, it will likely retrace to around 2550.

#比特币布林带收窄至低水平