August 26th-August 30th Macro data summary!
There are three major events this week, two of which are related to the economy and interest rate cuts, and one is related to the current US stock technology sector.
August 28:
Nvidia announces second quarter financial results.
The data was released after the U.S. stock market closed on Wednesday morning. As the leader of the current technology stocks, Nvidia's financial report can determine the stability of the current technology stocks under the premise that the second quarter financial reports of the seven technology giants are uneven. Especially in the period before and after the interest rate cut, whether it meets market expectations is very important.
August 29:
The revised annualized quarterly rate of US GDP in the second quarter,
Basically, after the release of the U.S. quarterly GDP figures, two figures will be randomly announced. One is the month after the end of the quarter, when the initial GDP value of the quarter is announced, and the second month of the quarter, when the revised value is announced. This issue is the revised value of the U.S. GDP for the second quarter.
The initial estimate of the US GDP in the second quarter was 2.8%, and the expected revision was also 2.8%.
This data is relatively important for the current economy and interest rate cuts. If the second quarter GDP is revised downward too much, it may even trigger expectations of economic instability or recession after the interest rate cut. In this case, the current interest rate cut trading may turn from long to short, and the interest rate cut benchmark may be pushed up to the 50 benchmark.
However, when we compare the GDP in the first quarter with 1.3%, there is a huge gap compared with the data in the second quarter, which also brings more room for downward revision of GDP in the second quarter.
August 30:
The annual rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in July,
This data is the inflation data for July. With the interest rate cut confirmed, many people feel that the inflation data is no longer important. However, in the current environment where the interest rate cut has been confirmed, the inflation issue will be put on the agenda again.
The PCE data for July was 2.6% before and 2.7% expected, which is expected to rebound compared with the previous value.
Under the expectation of rate cuts, whether the economy is stable and whether there is pressure to control inflation will change the sentiment brought about by the current rate cuts. In my long article at the weekend, I also mentioned that there is no fixed relationship between rate cuts and risk market corrections. Often, risk market corrections are caused by pessimism about the economy after rate cuts.
At present, there is a certainty of a rate cut in September, and the market has started trading on the expectation of a rate cut again since last week. At this time, if the inflation data for July this week rebounds significantly, and if the GDP data is revised downward, then people’s confidence in the US economy after the rate cut will weaken, and the rate cut in September will trigger a correction in the market due to systemic pessimistic economic expectations.
Summarize:
This week's assessment of the US economy has the greatest impact on the current trading sentiment for rate cuts, with GDP and PCE data having the greatest impact on current trading sentiment for rate cuts, while Nvidia determines whether technology stocks will explode in the current sensitive stage.
For crypto market traders, GDP and PCE are the data we focus on.
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