The overnight momentum remained unabated, and BTC continued to maintain its upward momentum, holding above 68k, which echoed the "Bitcoin 2024" conference as scheduled, and seemed to break the curse of "falling at every conference" in the crypto market.
As BTC prices rise strongly, STHs (short-term holders) seem to be "okay" again. Most of their positions have also begun to return to profitability. From the perpetual contract rate data, as shown in the figure below, in fact, since last year, that is, August 2023, until now July 2024, it has basically maintained a positive rate, which shows that the market has actually been in a bull market.
Of course, the period when the fee rate is above the neutral fee rate (i.e. 0.01% for 8 hours) can be considered as a period of extremely strong bullish sentiment. Smart friends may think of shorting the currency standard to eat the fee rate, but I personally think that the chance of winning is not big enough for such arbitrage before 100,000 dollars or more (below), and the final outcome may be that the fee rate is eaten and the principal is lost.
Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.), a U.S. presidential candidate with little chance of winning, attended the ongoing "Bitcoin 2024" conference and gave a speech.
In his speech, Kennedy Jr. said: "(If elected,) I will sign an executive order directing the United States Treasury to purchase 550 bitcoins per day until the United States has established a reserve of at least 4 million bitcoins and a dominant position that no other country can usurp."
This statement even attracted praise from Jimmy Song, a well-known Bitcoin developer: "No matter what you think of Kennedy Jr., he has done a lot of homework. It is awe-inspiring that he can learn so much knowledge in just one year."
However, some netizens poured cold water on the comments section, saying: "What a shame, he has absolutely no chance of winning (the election)."
Some netizens disagreed with this pessimistic argument: "If everyone who says he has no chance of winning stopped saying he has no chance of winning and voted for him, he would have a better chance of winning."
I appreciate the latter netizen's attitude. Politics is a game of catering to ideas. Many things that people think are indestructible are actually the product of ideas. From families and companies to society and countries, they are actually the ideas of a group of people. If the ideas of most people change, these things will change in minutes.
Concepts are called consensus in the field of encryption, public opinion in the political field, and "water can carry a boat, but it can also capsize it" in the field of history.
No matter how dictatorial the tyrant is, no matter how powerful the violence machine is, no matter how horrific the butcher knife and bomb are, they will inevitably be defeated in the general perception of the people.
On this point, the words of the great teacher Marx are classic: "The weapon of criticism cannot, of course, replace the criticism of weapons. Material force can only be destroyed by material force, but once theory has mastered the masses, it will also become material force. As long as the theory convinces people, it can master the masses; and as long as the theory is thorough, it can convince people."
When talking about "people controlling capital", some pessimists immediately deny it and insist that it is impossible. If everyone abandons the idea of impossibility and instead advocates for their rights, actively practices and exercises power, when every soldier, every civil servant, every worker, every farmer, every teacher, every student, every father, every mother... when everyone in a country thinks and acts this way, then it will naturally be possible.
Just like the fact that BTC is halved and the total amount is 21 million, it has evolved from an idea in Satoshi Nakamoto's mind to the common idea of dozens or hundreds of early participants, and then to the collective idea of millions or tens of millions of miners, coin holders, and ecological participants. It has become increasingly indestructible.
How did this concept, after being grasped by millions, tens of millions, and even hundreds of millions of people in the future, become a material force that cannot be destroyed by aircraft carriers and nuclear bombs? Through mining machines, computing power, and PoW (proof of work). The world's invincible computing power is the "weapon of criticism." The concept of "decentralized currency" conceived and designed by Satoshi Nakamoto is the "weapon of criticism."
Why can’t BTC “de-PoW”, such as following the trend of PoS? Because from a philosophical point of view, our mentors have long warned us that the weapon of criticism cannot replace the criticism of weapons, and no matter how clever the design ideas are, they cannot replace powerful computing power.
Becoming a national reserve is another powerful concept in the development of BTC.
It doesn’t matter which specific individual, whether it is Kennedy Jr. or Trump, who proposed and promoted this idea.
The objective laws of historical development determine that when BTC develops to this stage, it will inevitably give rise to more and more influential politicians who will begin to advocate and promote this concept.
In my personal opinion, this is the inevitable result of historical development.
From this point of view, it doesn’t really matter whether Kennedy Jr. has a chance of winning the election, and we don’t need to care or worry about it.
What’s important is that when a politician starts promoting this idea, it means that this idea has gained the support of a considerable number of people.
So game theory can tell us with certainty that this will definitely prompt more politicians to move toward this idea.
When a country begins to include BTC in its national reserves as an element of national strategic competition, it will inevitably arouse the vigilance, evaluation, reflection and follow-up of other countries.
After all, when it comes to international competition and the survival of civilizations, a single mistake can lead to a complete loss, and even a tiger taking a nap can lead to a century of humiliation. No one dares to underestimate it.
What kind of concept will be deeply rooted in people's hearts and become the choice of history? The teacher has made it very clear: if you can convince people, you can control the masses. What kind of concept can convince people? Thoroughly.
Is BTC thorough? Thoroughly.
Along the way, countless people with ulterior motives who want to promote altcoins always like to label BTC people as "maximalists" and smear them as "extreme", "uncompromising", "closed" and "intolerant". All these labels, smears, criticisms and abuses are actually the supreme honor and medals!
It is precisely because of the "thorough" revolutionary nature of the BTC community, with its uncompromising spirit and its resolute defense of the purity of BTC, that it has been able to constantly convince people, and then gain control of hundreds of millions of people around the world, turning into the most powerful material force, incarnating into weapons of criticism, passing the test of life and death, crushing the mantis trying to stop it, and ultimately achieving victory in the monetary revolution.#比特币大会 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？
