The Bitcoin trend is quite normal. In recent days, even when encountering sudden situations, it quickly rebounds after a dip. In fact, the entire bull market trend is reasonable; the only unreasonable aspect is the altcoin trend, which can be discussed later regarding specific reasons.

This correction did not reach the estimated $64,000-$65,000 from a couple of days ago, and it may be difficult to reverse back to that position. Time does not support a significant correction unless an accident occurs.

Bitcoin rebounded twice today, breaking through 68,000; the performance of altcoins cannot be considered good overall, only stable. During the first breakthrough, there were slight increases, but when Bitcoin corrected, altcoins overreacted.

Such a market trend typically corrects to a small Bitcoin support level before buying altcoins, with support stop-losses, which may offer a better cost-performance ratio than buying spot, as many altcoins have already touched support levels several times.

Of course, this is a good option for those unwilling to buy short-term altcoin spot.

Pay close attention to market trends at the beginning of next month; personally, I look forward to a short bull run. According to common sense, even if there are risks, a large bullish candle should emerge.

Next, let's talk about an event that happened a couple of days ago.

According to foreign media reports, US regulatory agencies and prosecutors are investigating the cryptocurrency company Tether, as the company may be suspected of violating sanctions and anti-money laundering regulations. The federal government's potential crackdown on Tether could cause an unprecedented upheaval in the digital asset industry.

Tether is the issuing company of Tether (USDT), which is a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, designed to be a digital alternative to the US dollar, with a market value of about $120 billion.

In terms of market capitalization, Tether is the third largest cryptocurrency in the world and the token with the largest daily trading volume. In markets where traditional currencies cannot be used for transactions, Tether has become a substitute for the US dollar.

Around the same time that Israel attacked Iran, news came that US regulatory agencies are investigating Tether.

There are analyses in the market suggesting that if Tether has problems, it will have a huge impact on the market.

Wang Ge actually thinks it resembles a conspiracy theory.

I remember the parent company of USDC, Circle, was also investigated for similar accusations, and Tether has been investigated for similar reasons.

From the perspective of American interests, the symbolic significance of the investigation is greater than the actual impact. They will not investigate Tether and Circle like they did with Binance, because going too far and eliminating these two companies would be shooting themselves in the foot, especially with the elections approaching, regulators dare not play with fire.

Tether is hard to collapse because its size is too large.

Looking again, if the so-called Tether collapses in the market, it will have a huge impact on the market. How big will this impact be?

Firstly, a premise: the probability of 'Tether collapsing due to investigation' is extremely low, possibly even less than 0.0001%. In fact, besides the American company's USDT, there are also stablecoins from Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and other regions in the market. Even if the Americans are foolish, they wouldn't kill Tether, as it would lead to capital outflow.

Now making an assumption, if USDT collapses due to investigation, it would directly lead to:

1. The USDT exchange rate collapses, causing losses to tens of millions of American users, including institutions and capital, which would lead regulatory agencies to face various crises and large-scale lawsuits.

2. USDT decouples, if it decouples slowly, funds will flow towards: direct cashing, other stablecoins, Bitcoin, and other altcoins. Aside from user losses and panic, this does not directly constitute the selling of Bitcoin and altcoins.

Ultimately, USDT itself is just a medium and does not represent cryptocurrencies. The impact of the Americans' previous attempts to regulate cryptocurrencies may be greater than investigating Tether.

Just a day before the weekend, BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings had reached 400,000 coins.

For capital and large holders with Bitcoin holdings, if Tether encounters problems, it does not affect the value of their Bitcoin holdings. Thus, analyzing in reverse, one can understand that the value of Bitcoin will not be coerced by any individual or company.

Note: Market forecasts carry risks, and this analysis only represents personal opinion.#美国大选前行情观察