Crypto markets rose and then fell on Thursday.

Financial markets started the day on a positive note after the latest U.S. jobs data showed a continued cooling in the labor market, with continuing unemployment claims hitting their highest level since November 2021, but sentiment began to turn lower during the midday session.

After trading sideways around $65,000 early Thursday morning, Bitcoin fell to the $63,500 support level in the afternoon. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $63,717, down about 1% in the 24 hours.

Altcoins fell overall. The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is US$2.33 trillion, and Bitcoin's market share is 53.8%.

As for U.S. stocks, at the close, the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices all fell, down 0.78%, 1.29% and 0.70% respectively. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.50% on the day, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.1 basis points to 4.2%.

The pullback was accompanied by a drop in open interest and volume, suggesting that the previous rally is losing momentum. The pause in the rally coincided with a sharp sell-off in the stock market, especially yesterday's 2.7% drop in the Nasdaq. If this market correction continues, it could further hinder the cryptocurrency's rebound. A close below the 50-day moving average (around $64,000) could signal a further drop to $62,000.

Bitcoin establishes support near $64,000

After reaching $66,000 on July 17, BTC price fell back below $65,000 and retested that level for most of July 18 before declining.

The fact that $65,000 is a “strong resistance” and the BTC/USD pair has not pulled back significantly is very positive in the long term. Holding resistance levels with no selling intentions is usually a sign of an impending breakout.

IntoTheBlock’s data chart supports Bitcoin’s uptrend, with its IOMAP model showing that Bitcoin price has received relatively strong support on the downside compared to the resistance it faces on the road to rebound.

For example, the immediate support provided by the 100-day and 200-day EMAs is around $62,700, close to the area where 1.7 million addresses previously purchased around 840,920 BTC. Increased demand in this area could push prices higher.

Long-term bullish thesis remains

The medium- to long-term outlook for BTC remains bullish.

Evidence that the market is near a bottom is the Bitcoin network hash rate, which just experienced its biggest drop since the 2022 FTX crash.

Bitcoin is consolidating steadily over four months. As long as it stays above $60,000, it is likely to continue rising. Gold prices are hitting new all-time highs and yields are falling. It is only a matter of time before Bitcoin rises.

Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is “an important metric for Bitcoin.”

This is the most negative value in the past 2.5 years, worse than the crash during Luna, the correction last summer, or the correction after Bitcoin went public. The correction is over, buckle up.

The weakening trend in the US labor market that we have witnessed so far in 2024 has continued. Fed Chairman Powell said at the Economic Club this week that the Fed is now more focused on the risk of unemployment rising too quickly, which means the Fed can achieve the 2-3 rate cuts expected by the end of the year by the OIS market.

For cryptocurrencies, low interest rates could be supportive as long as U.S. economic growth slows but the economy does not fall into recession.

Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.