2024.7.11 Macro Analysis

Fed Chairman Powell spoke yesterday

Revealed a key point: The Fed does not need the inflation rate to be lower than 2% before cutting interest rates

It is an implicit positive, because the Fed previously emphasized that the inflation rate must reach 2% before it starts to cut interest rates.

The CPI will be released at 20:30 tonight. Higher than expected is negative, and lower than expected is positive. Tom Lee, known as the "Wall Street God Calculator", predicts that the CPI will fall sharply, pushing US stocks higher.

Yesterday, BTC's spot ETF continued to inflow more than $100 million to buy the bottom. It seems to be a good thing, but the old saying is still: it will definitely rise in the long run, because the Fed is about to cut interest rates and may release a lot of money in 2025.

But we will encounter such a situation:

Originally the rebound was going well, but suddenly the German government sold the currency, and the wallets of 140,000 BTC in Mentougou began to transfer money on a large scale. BTC may fall by 5%, and the altcoins will fall again. So don't chase the rebound, don't go all in and fill your position.

Leave some room, so that you can add positions when it falls, otherwise you will panic and cut your losses irrationally.

Of course, don't short your position now, otherwise it will be very uncomfortable when it rebounds. Many altcoins have fallen from the starting point. The price is right, and there is room for decline, but it will not be very large.

July-August is not as simple as imagined. The Mentougou crisis battle is not over yet. Keep 60% of the position and hold the currency patiently. Again, beware of the last drop of 46,500-48,000. #CPI数据 #德国政府转移比特币 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC