美国8月核心CPI超预期
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The Biggest Hidden Danger of the Last Super Central Bank Week in 2024 - Bank of Japan
Will the Bank of Japan make another surprise attack on the global market?
With the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data in November, the market has almost fully priced in a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The market is betting on the 'certainty' of a December rate cut, believing that the Federal Reserve will once again lean towards a larger cut, as it did in September (September was 25bp vs. 50bp, December is 0 vs. 25bp), to address the 'uncertainty' of monetary policy since Trump's presidency.
Mark Cabana, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America, expects a 25 basis point rate cut this week but also states that future cuts will be more gradual. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve is concerned that failing to cut rates would disappoint the market, thus they will cut rates this week. However, if inflation remains high for an extended period above the policy target, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored would be the situation the Federal Reserve fears most. If there is a risk of unanchored inflation expectations, and inflation remains high or accelerates again, the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates, a scenario that has not yet been priced into the market.
The yen against the dollar has fallen for seven consecutive days and has broken through the 154 mark.
Although the market believes the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising rates this week is less than 20%, considering that the Japanese government recently upgraded the economic growth rate data for the third quarter, removing barriers to a rate hike, and the Bank of Japan's preference for 'surprise attacks', who would dare to let their guard down?
This summer, amid heart rate irregularities and angina (liquidity issues) in the U.S. dollar, the Bank of Japan suddenly raised rates, triggering a global market explosion. The wave of deleveraging in yen carry trades was unprecedented, and global stock markets evaporated about $6.4 trillion in three weeks, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing its largest drop since 1987. The current situation is somewhat similar.
According to Bloomberg's analysis of data from the Japan Financial Futures Association, Tokyo Financial Exchange, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Japanese retail investors, leveraged funds, and foreign asset management companies increased their short positions on the yen to $13.5 billion in November, far exceeding October's $9.74 billion, reaching 62.5% of the July peak of $21.6 billion. Short positions on the yen are expected to continue rising rapidly, indicating that yen carry trades are 'reviving'.
#美国8月核心CPI超预期 #加密市场狂欢 #圣诞行情预测
Will the Bank of Japan make another surprise attack on the global market?
With the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data in November, the market has almost fully priced in a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The market is betting on the 'certainty' of a December rate cut, believing that the Federal Reserve will once again lean towards a larger cut, as it did in September (September was 25bp vs. 50bp, December is 0 vs. 25bp), to address the 'uncertainty' of monetary policy since Trump's presidency.
Mark Cabana, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America, expects a 25 basis point rate cut this week but also states that future cuts will be more gradual. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve is concerned that failing to cut rates would disappoint the market, thus they will cut rates this week. However, if inflation remains high for an extended period above the policy target, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored would be the situation the Federal Reserve fears most. If there is a risk of unanchored inflation expectations, and inflation remains high or accelerates again, the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates, a scenario that has not yet been priced into the market.
The yen against the dollar has fallen for seven consecutive days and has broken through the 154 mark.
Although the market believes the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising rates this week is less than 20%, considering that the Japanese government recently upgraded the economic growth rate data for the third quarter, removing barriers to a rate hike, and the Bank of Japan's preference for 'surprise attacks', who would dare to let their guard down?
This summer, amid heart rate irregularities and angina (liquidity issues) in the U.S. dollar, the Bank of Japan suddenly raised rates, triggering a global market explosion. The wave of deleveraging in yen carry trades was unprecedented, and global stock markets evaporated about $6.4 trillion in three weeks, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing its largest drop since 1987. The current situation is somewhat similar.
According to Bloomberg's analysis of data from the Japan Financial Futures Association, Tokyo Financial Exchange, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Japanese retail investors, leveraged funds, and foreign asset management companies increased their short positions on the yen to $13.5 billion in November, far exceeding October's $9.74 billion, reaching 62.5% of the July peak of $21.6 billion. Short positions on the yen are expected to continue rising rapidly, indicating that yen carry trades are 'reviving'.
#美国8月核心CPI超预期 #加密市场狂欢 #圣诞行情预测
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$GOAT
⚡️ＧＯＡＴ⚡️
It looks a bit like fishing 🎣!
If you catch it, you take off 🛫!
If you don't catch it, just cast a long line and keep fishing!
The robot understands human nature!
Hahaha!
This morning I called for high altitude all morning!
It made me laugh to death!
Whether or not to eat meat,
just depends on this afternoon!
#GOAT智能策略库🥇🥇 #GOAT💥💥💥 #美国8月核心CPI超预期
⚡️ＧＯＡＴ⚡️
It looks a bit like fishing 🎣!
If you catch it, you take off 🛫!
If you don't catch it, just cast a long line and keep fishing!
The robot understands human nature!
Hahaha!
This morning I called for high altitude all morning!
It made me laugh to death!
Whether or not to eat meat,
just depends on this afternoon!
#GOAT智能策略库🥇🥇 #GOAT💥💥💥 #美国8月核心CPI超预期
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$BTC $ETH $SOL
$Marvin ignites the market, 400 times increase! 💥💥💥
Agg Capital and the 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈 community jointly launched the Ethereum chain ecological sub-coin $Marvin, which achieved a 400-fold increase on the day of its launch, shocking the audience! 💥💥💥
The 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈 community is known as the "strongest community on the surface". Since the birth of Musk's new dog 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈, no matter how the market changes, community members have always insisted on promotion and construction, constantly looking for new growth points! The community has received 2 likes from Musk and nearly 60 likes from Musk's mother. These are the achievements made by community members through various channels.
$Marvin was created by the original team of the 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈 community. 1% of the transaction tax will be used to repurchase and destroy $Puppies, further increasing the overall currency price. The current market value is only a few hundred thousand U, and $Marvin is also Musk's favorite dog name. Every November 1st, Musk will post on Twitter to wish Marvin a happy birthday! With such a project with unlimited potential, what are you still hesitating about? 💥#灰度将推出首个美国XRP信托 #新币挖矿CATI #美国8月核心CPI超预期 #新币挖矿HMSTR
$Marvin ignites the market, 400 times increase! 💥💥💥
Agg Capital and the 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈 community jointly launched the Ethereum chain ecological sub-coin $Marvin, which achieved a 400-fold increase on the day of its launch, shocking the audience! 💥💥💥
The 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈 community is known as the "strongest community on the surface". Since the birth of Musk's new dog 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈, no matter how the market changes, community members have always insisted on promotion and construction, constantly looking for new growth points! The community has received 2 likes from Musk and nearly 60 likes from Musk's mother. These are the achievements made by community members through various channels.
$Marvin was created by the original team of the 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈 community. 1% of the transaction tax will be used to repurchase and destroy $Puppies, further increasing the overall currency price. The current market value is only a few hundred thousand U, and $Marvin is also Musk's favorite dog name. Every November 1st, Musk will post on Twitter to wish Marvin a happy birthday! With such a project with unlimited potential, what are you still hesitating about? 💥#灰度将推出首个美国XRP信托 #新币挖矿CATI #美国8月核心CPI超预期 #新币挖矿HMSTR
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$BTTC
💥 BTTC Plan: Will the Millionaire Dream Come True in 2030? 💰
#美国8月核心CPI超预期
Explorers of the Crypto World! You may have heard of BitTorrent Chain (BTTC), a somewhat well-known cryptocurrency. But the question is, can it really make you leap from an ordinary investor to a millionaire? Let’s find out!
🚀 What Makes BTTC Unique?
Speaking of BTTC, its predecessor, BitTorrent, has been a classic brand since 2001, completely revolutionizing the way files are shared. Later, it was acquired by TRON, a big player in the blockchain world.
But don’t be fooled by its “age”; it’s full of energy now! BTTC supports decentralized storage, file sharing, VPN, and ad-free browsing—these are all practical features that can attract a lot of users!
🔥 Current Price and Market Cap of BTTC
Let’s take a look at BTTC’s “value.” Its current market cap is 1.42 billion USD, ranking 90th among cryptocurrencies globally. As for the total supply, there are as many as 99 billion tokens. Some investors see BTTC as a potential stock that could turn “pennies into wealth.” But how likely is that?
💡 Will BTTC Surge 100 Times by 2030?
Let’s do some calculations:
If you spent 1000 USD today to buy BTTC, at the current price, you could acquire about 6.99 billion tokens.
If the price of BTTC rises to 0.0001 USD, this is not a fantasy; with the growing number of users, it could happen, turning your investment into 69,900 USD.
Now, let’s think even bolder: if it rises to 0.01 USD, wow! Your 1000 USD could turn into an astonishing 6.9 million USD!
Whether BTTC can make you a millionaire is uncertain. But if you have confidence in cryptocurrencies and are willing to take risks, why not give it a try? After all, dreams are worth having; what if they come true?
#山寨季将持续多久？ #亚马逊股东提议比特币投资
Stop flailing around like a headless chicken! If you want to make big money in a bull market, like + comment, and I’ll help you plan the entire bull market and seize the opportunities together!
$XRP $BTC
💥 BTTC Plan: Will the Millionaire Dream Come True in 2030? 💰
#美国8月核心CPI超预期
Explorers of the Crypto World! You may have heard of BitTorrent Chain (BTTC), a somewhat well-known cryptocurrency. But the question is, can it really make you leap from an ordinary investor to a millionaire? Let’s find out!
🚀 What Makes BTTC Unique?
Speaking of BTTC, its predecessor, BitTorrent, has been a classic brand since 2001, completely revolutionizing the way files are shared. Later, it was acquired by TRON, a big player in the blockchain world.
But don’t be fooled by its “age”; it’s full of energy now! BTTC supports decentralized storage, file sharing, VPN, and ad-free browsing—these are all practical features that can attract a lot of users!
🔥 Current Price and Market Cap of BTTC
Let’s take a look at BTTC’s “value.” Its current market cap is 1.42 billion USD, ranking 90th among cryptocurrencies globally. As for the total supply, there are as many as 99 billion tokens. Some investors see BTTC as a potential stock that could turn “pennies into wealth.” But how likely is that?
💡 Will BTTC Surge 100 Times by 2030?
Let’s do some calculations:
If you spent 1000 USD today to buy BTTC, at the current price, you could acquire about 6.99 billion tokens.
If the price of BTTC rises to 0.0001 USD, this is not a fantasy; with the growing number of users, it could happen, turning your investment into 69,900 USD.
Now, let’s think even bolder: if it rises to 0.01 USD, wow! Your 1000 USD could turn into an astonishing 6.9 million USD!
Whether BTTC can make you a millionaire is uncertain. But if you have confidence in cryptocurrencies and are willing to take risks, why not give it a try? After all, dreams are worth having; what if they come true?
#山寨季将持续多久？ #亚马逊股东提议比特币投资
Stop flailing around like a headless chicken! If you want to make big money in a bull market, like + comment, and I’ll help you plan the entire bull market and seize the opportunities together!
$XRP $BTC
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$BTC Evening View:
The hourly level of the big cake has tried to break through the daily resistance level 6 times from last night to the early morning, but all efforts have failed. Over and over again, and three times, and three times are exhausted. If it can't go up, it will be really Barbie Q.
Set a good stop profit and stop loss. The first and second stop profit levels are marked in the figure.
$BTC
#美降息25个基点预期升温
#美国8月核心CPI超预期
The hourly level of the big cake has tried to break through the daily resistance level 6 times from last night to the early morning, but all efforts have failed. Over and over again, and three times, and three times are exhausted. If it can't go up, it will be really Barbie Q.
Set a good stop profit and stop loss. The first and second stop profit levels are marked in the figure.
$BTC
#美降息25个基点预期升温
#美国8月核心CPI超预期
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$ETH $ETH $BNB
Investment in the virtual currency market needs to focus not only on the rise and fall of the currency price, but also on the community strength and mechanism design behind the project. A successful virtual currency project often has unique advantages in terms of community support, mechanism design and market promotion.
$Marvin coin is such a project. $Marvin coin, jointly launched by Agg Capital and 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈 community, achieved a 400-fold increase on the first day of its launch, becoming a hot investment target in the market.
Currently, the market value of $Marvin is only a few hundred thousand U. Because its name is the same as Musk's favorite pet dog, Musk will wish Marvin a happy birthday on Twitter every November 1st, which also brings more exposure and attention to $Marvin coin.
#美降息25个基点预期升温 #FTX赎回Solana #美国8月核心CPI超预期 #美降息25个基点预期升温
Investment in the virtual currency market needs to focus not only on the rise and fall of the currency price, but also on the community strength and mechanism design behind the project. A successful virtual currency project often has unique advantages in terms of community support, mechanism design and market promotion.
$Marvin coin is such a project. $Marvin coin, jointly launched by Agg Capital and 𝓅𝓊𝓅𝓅𝒾ℯ𝓈 community, achieved a 400-fold increase on the first day of its launch, becoming a hot investment target in the market.
Currently, the market value of $Marvin is only a few hundred thousand U. Because its name is the same as Musk's favorite pet dog, Musk will wish Marvin a happy birthday on Twitter every November 1st, which also brings more exposure and attention to $Marvin coin.
#美降息25个基点预期升温 #FTX赎回Solana #美国8月核心CPI超预期 #美降息25个基点预期升温
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#美降息25个基点预期升温 #BTC重回关键位置后走势 #美联储12月降息预期上升 #美国8月核心CPI超预期 #比特币战略储备
Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting has become the focus of investor attention, with the current probability of a rate cut reaching 96.4%, which is almost a consensus in the market.
This probability indicates that investors strongly expect the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate from the current 450-475 bps to 425-450 bps at the December meeting.
Why does the market have a strong consensus on a rate cut?
Trend of easing inflation:
In recent months, inflation data in the United States (such as CPI and core PCE) has begun to slow down, with hopes of approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
If inflation expectations are further suppressed, the Federal Reserve will adjust monetary policy to avoid the pressure of high interest rates on economic growth.
Demand for a relaxed financial environment:
Current high interest rates have already placed significant pressure on corporate financing, the real estate market, and consumer credit demand.
To alleviate the tension in financial markets and support economic recovery, the Federal Reserve is more inclined to choose rate cuts as a tool for adjustment.
From the perspective of BTC market prices and Nasdaq market behavior, the vast majority of investors have already accounted for the expectation of a rate cut. If this expectation fails, it may lead to significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.
Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting has become the focus of investor attention, with the current probability of a rate cut reaching 96.4%, which is almost a consensus in the market.
This probability indicates that investors strongly expect the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate from the current 450-475 bps to 425-450 bps at the December meeting.
Why does the market have a strong consensus on a rate cut?
Trend of easing inflation:
In recent months, inflation data in the United States (such as CPI and core PCE) has begun to slow down, with hopes of approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
If inflation expectations are further suppressed, the Federal Reserve will adjust monetary policy to avoid the pressure of high interest rates on economic growth.
Demand for a relaxed financial environment:
Current high interest rates have already placed significant pressure on corporate financing, the real estate market, and consumer credit demand.
To alleviate the tension in financial markets and support economic recovery, the Federal Reserve is more inclined to choose rate cuts as a tool for adjustment.
From the perspective of BTC market prices and Nasdaq market behavior, the vast majority of investors have already accounted for the expectation of a rate cut. If this expectation fails, it may lead to significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.