Quick update.

I am sorry I did not post my thoughts for this week.

My dog is not doing well so I don’t have the time or the mental energy to focus on the market.

Between now and the FEDs decision next week there is little that could make them cut more than 25bps.

Unless unemployment claims overshoot by a LOT tomorrow.

If, only if, BTC rallies to $62 500-$65000 before the end of the week I would treat next week as a sell the news event.(Just my opinion)

In my opinion for BTC to go higher than that (short term, sustained) we will need a perfect scenario next week.

On Monday manufacturing will need to improve.

On Tuesday retail sales will need to show strength in the economy (Not a huge decrease over last months reading).

On Wednesday the Fed will need to drop rates by 25bps and the FOMC statement will need to imply a further 50-75bps cut before year end.

Weekly unemployment claims will need to be as predicted or lower.

On Friday it will be crucial that Japan does not increase interest rates.

All of the above happening is unlikely.

The reason no “parabolic bull run” has happened in the last 6 months is simple, the worldwide economy does not support it.

Regardless of what the Fed or other central banks do it has not hugely increased money supply in the wider economy.

Why?

Because the fabricated money supply is just going from central banks to large banks and not much further, the large banks are not lending out that money, the risk of default is to high.

Central banks->Large bank->Bonds (simplified)

Now there are 2 options.

1-The economy shows a soft landing and banks lend more money and this filters its way to crypto.

2-The Fed buys huge amount of treasuries to drive down the yields and force the banks to lend out the money into the economy, they basically force the banks to make higher risk loans in search of yields.

Option 1 will take time, option 2 will happen if the FED sees an economic downturn.

Please DYOR, I have not focused on the market in the past week.

Peace

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