The NVT Golden Cross suggests that 65,800 could mark a potential short-term local top.

A value above 2.2 suggests that the market cap (price) is outpacing transaction volume and so potentially signaling a reversion to the mean.

Conversely, a value below -1.6 indicates that the market may be undervalued and is likely to revert to its mean value soon.

The deeper the value moves into these zones, the stronger the signal becomes

These values are interpreted as signals for potential long and short positions by also taking into account the global chart and trend.

Written by Darkfost

Since the beginning of 2024, the number of active Bitcoin and Ethereum addresses has continued to decline.

For the bulls to dominate the market, the influx of new investors is a crucial condition.

1-Bitcoin 1.17M --> 855K

2-Ethereum 382K --> 312K

Comment

We’re still playing to ourselves.

New investors aren’t entering the crypto space. The liquidity and investors waiting for spot ETFs have already entered (we can’t see this on-chain). However, despite this, the decline in active addresses shows that the “hype” hasn’t arrived yet. The anticipated rally following the Fed's first rate cut also didn’t happen.

Why?

Because the Fed is continuing QT (quantitative tightening), which, in simple terms, means pulling liquidity from the market. However, slight increases in the M2 money supply are also noteworthy during the same period. In the end, the Fed will sooner or later shift back to QE (quantitative easing), which means pumping liquidity into the market. When that happens, I believe we’ll see the long-awaited hype and a rise in active addresses.

Patience is a steel shield.

Written by burakkesmeci

Price movements in the cryptocurrency market are heavily influenced by investor sentiment and market confidence. The Long/Short Volume to Open Interest Ratio is a key indicator for analyzing market sentiment and predicting future price movements. In this article, we explore the relationship between Bitcoin price and the Long/Short ratio to understand market behavior.

What is the Long/Short Ratio?

The Long/Short ratio indicates the distribution of long and short positions held by investors. A high Long ratio means that investors generally expect a price rise, indicating positive sentiment, while a high Short ratio suggests expectations of a price decline.

Chart Analysis

The chart below shows Bitcoin price (white line) along with the Long/Short ratio (green and red lines). Red and green boxes highlight extreme Long or Short positions that led to price reversals. Extreme investor sentiment has often resulted in price movements in the opposite direction.

Red Boxes: These indicate periods of excessive Long positions, where optimism about rising prices was high. Such situations often led to price declines, as market sentiment became overly optimistic, triggering a correction.

Green Boxes: These indicate periods with increased Short positions, reflecting bearish sentiment. Excessive fear and high Short ratios have often marked low points, leading to price recoveries.

The Importance of Market Sentiment

Analyzing extreme investor behavior helps identify potential market turning points. Excessive Long or Short positions show that market balance is disturbed, often preceding corrections or trend reversals. Investors should use market sentiment alongside other technical indicators for more reliable signals, as relying solely on this ratio can be misleading.

Written by datascope

Total number of unique active addresses has been in a steady decline since March this year and has to be taken as seriously negative signal. While Bitcoin's price remains in a sideways sloping down movement in same time frame, growing worries in US around employment data, FED cutting rates (never a good medium term sign for risk-on assets) that did not boost stock market significantly, add up to a bearish sentiment for crypto.

As you can clearly see this is the biggest decline since 2021 and unless reversed soon, looks heading for under 650k that we have seen in 2018 bear market.

You should not be surprised if BTC's price starts catching up with address activity trend very soon.

Written by gigisulivan

In recent days, Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable surge, reaching the $66,000 range. However, based on its performance over the last 24 hours, this level has not held successfully, and the price is currently fluctuating around $63,000.

Given the current market conditions and the lackluster demand in the Bitcoin market, it is crucial in the short term that the $62,000 range is maintained, as it represents the average realized price for short-term whale holders.

These investors, who have been steadily accumulating Bitcoin over the past few months, have played a significant role in shaping the dynamic price movements. Consequently, maintaining the uptrend formed in recent days is contingent upon Bitcoin remaining above the critical $62,000 level.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Over the past month, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets have experienced considerable volatility, with price fluctuations failing to break the significant $70 level, despite multiple price surges. However, when we analyze the realized price of Bitcoin and Ethereum holders, the outlook remains optimistic for both.

According to the above metric, which reflects the realized price of Bitcoin and Ethereum holders, the price of both assets continues to fluctuate above the average entry points, indicating that these holders are moving their assets while still in profit. The realized price for staked Ethereum is around $2,260, while the non-staked Ethereum realized price is approximately $2,210. Meanwhile, the realized price for Bitcoin holders is estimated to be around $37,000.

Considering the current prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, on average, the holders of both assets remain in profit. With that said, there is potential for price performance to improve in the coming weeks and months. Even in light of reduced demand from new holders, the overall financial health of Bitcoin and Ethereum holders remains positive.

Written by Crazzyblockk

The Velocity indicator measures how frequently Bitcoin is traded overall, reflecting the overall speed at which it changes hands. Dormancy, however, measures how much Bitcoin moves after being held without movement for an extended period.

Since 2024, Velocity has remained near its lowest levels for almost a year. Even as the price rose from $35k to $73k, the flow of Bitcoin in the market did not increase significantly. Dormancy, however, spiked around March 2024, hitting a new all-time high (ATH), indicating that Bitcoin held for several years was being moved.

The fact that Velocity did not increase, despite the surge in Dormancy, suggests that investors are generally holding onto Bitcoin for the long term (HODL). However, with the significant price increase, some long-term holders did sell. This shows that while some movement occurred, the overall liquidity in the market remains low.

Written by Yonsei_dent

It's simple: if CME's open interest is increasing at a higher rate than Binance's open interest, the price will grow.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Bitcoin ETF Netflow :

- Positive USD Netflow (Green Bars): These bars indicate the inflow of USD into the Bitcoin ETF, suggesting that retail investors are purchasing the ETF, likely driven by (FOMO) buying pressure.

-Negative USD Netflow (Red Bars): These bars indicate the outflow of USD from the Bitcoin ETF, suggesting that retail investors are selling the ETF, likely driven by (fear) .

1d ~ 1w UTXO Age Band (purple line):

This represents the realized price of Bitcoin that has been held between 1 day to 1 week.

- UTXO Bullish Signals:

When the market price crosses and stays above the realized price, it typically suggests that market sentiment is positive and investors are in profit. This can attract more buying, pushing the price higher.

- UTXO Bearish Signals:

Conversely, when the market price drops and heads towards the realized price, it indicates a potential market correction or bearish sentiment. Investors might be looking to sell or realize their profits, leading to further declines.

The Korea Premium Index :

(commonly known as the "Kimchi Premium") refers to the price difference between Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) traded on South Korean exchanges versus global exchanges. It measures how much higher or lower Bitcoin's price is in Korea compared to the rest of the world.

- Negative Premium: When the Korea Premium Index is negative ( near to zero or lower ), Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on Korean exchanges compared to global exchanges. It means that there is low buying pressure from Korean traders (FYI trading crypto in korea is a cluture phenomenon ).

Written by Amr Taha

Period comparison is November 2023 and July 2024. And now

Deribit 90% → 82% → 83%

Binance 3% → 8% → 10%

Okex 6% → 8% → 7%

First, look at the image: in July 2024, the Spot volume dropped sharply and the Perp volume increased instead. The CEX Perp BuySell Ratio soared from this period.

Although we are not able to post the image because it is a third-party service, we can see that Deribit's Options share, which had been dominant for a long time, is changing. The most noteworthy is Binance, which seems to have gradually shifted its focus to Options, as CEX's futures have tapered off due to the CME and the emergence of ETFs. In addition, they are expanding their market share. This will certainly broaden their defensive and more aggressive operations.

Written by Crypto_Lion

As I have posted many times, Stablecoins Supply is a sure thing to see if you want to trade. Not only is the correlation high, but by normalizing the Stablecoins Ratio, you can narrow down when to trade. All that's left to do is to decide on the position sign.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Currently, open interest in the Ethereum futures market is showing similar behavior to that of May

Open interest in the futures market increased even as the price of Ethereum fell, and open interest continues to increase even after the price of Ethereum rebounded

More speculators in the futures market means that the price is likely to remain bullish in the short term

Written by crypto sunmoon

Exchange Flow Multiple (30D/365D) is an indicator that shows the ratio between short-term (30-day) and long-term (365-day) inflows and outflows of BTC on exchanges.

When the Exchange Flow Multiple declines, it means that short-term inflows and outflows on exchanges are significantly lower than long-term ones. A low Exchange Flow Multiple points to decreased volatility in Bitcoin exchange flows, which could reflect accumulation by investors.

As seen on the chart, the Exchange Flow Multiple is currently near its lowest point this year. This significant decrease in the indicator may be due to several factors:

1) Long-term investors, or "HODLers", continue to hold their assets, which leads to a decrease in trading volume on exchanges. This scenario is typical of the early stages of a bull market, when more experienced participants prefer not to exit their positions, expecting further price increases.

2) Market correction and recovery. After each significant price drop or correction in BTC, markets require time to recover, which can also manifest in reduced exchange activity. A low Exchange Flow Multiple may indicate that active investors are waiting for prices to stabilize before resuming active trading.

On the chart, it is noticeable that low Exchange Flow Multiple values were observed before the rally in 2023. The current indicator levels are similarly low, which could signal that the market is preparing for the next upward trend.

Follow my channel on X https://x.com/axeladlerjr, where I provide daily analyses of the premier cryptocurrency. Also, consider subscribing to my Substack https://adlerscryptoinsights.substack.com, where you will find a weekly in-depth analysis of Bitcoin.

AAJ.

Written by AxelAdlerJr

While XRP is a well-known altcoin globally, the mainnet ecosystem built on the XRP Ledger receives relatively less attention. This Quicktake will cover the basic elements for XRP Ledger on-chain analysis, with plans to offer deeper insights in the future.

Daily Transaction Count

• Minimum: 1,347,681

• Maximum: 1,935,274

Key Transaction Types

• Payment

• Minimum: 311,341

• Maximum: 807,382

A payment transaction represents the transfer of value from one account to another.

• TicketCreate

• Minimum: 310

• Maximum: 18,557

TicketCreate allows for the creation of tickets to process specific transactions without following the strict sequence number order in the XRP Ledger.

• AccountSet

• Minimum: 26

• Maximum: 85

The AccountSet transaction modifies the properties of an account in the XRP Ledger.

• TrustSet

• Minimum: 24,340

• Maximum: 44,932

Creates or modifies a trust line linking two accounts.

• NFTokenCreateOffer

• Minimum: 1,832

• Maximum: 11,689

Creates an offer for an NFT.

• NFTokenAcceptOffer

• Minimum: 636

• Maximum: 5,239

Accepts an offer to complete the trade of an NFT.

• NFTokenCancelOffer

• Minimum: 362

• Maximum: 703

Cancels an offer for an NFT.

• NFTokenMint

• Minimum: 486

• Maximum: 26,758

The NFTokenMint transaction creates an NFT with unchangeable properties, such as TokenFlags.

• NFTokenBurn

• Minimum: 31

• Maximum: 6,169

The NFTokenBurn transaction removes an NFT from the ledger, effectively burning it.

Written by Wenry

The chart below illustrates the percentage of transaction volume for each Layer 1 solution compared to the total transactions. It highlights which Layer 1 is currently the most popular.

In the past month, one clear leader has emerged: The Open Network (TON). TON captured over 50% of all Layer 1 transactions during this period, largely driven by several major token launches, including:

- DOGS (28 million MAU) on August 28, 2024

- CatizenAI (18 million MAU) and Rocky Rabbit (18 million MAU) on September 20, 2024

- Watbird (12 million MAU) on September 23, 2024

- Hamster Kombat (110 million MAU) on September 26, 2024

As a result, The Open Network currently stands as the leading Layer 1 solution.

Written by maartunn

The steady maintenance of a high level of BTC supply in profit is a big clue to whether a bull cycle is underway or not. Looking back at past cycles, BTC supply in profit has mostly remained above 80%.

Of course, there have been moments when it fell below 80%(= red circles), but these were opportunities to buy the lows.

In the current bull cycle, it has remained above 80% for the most part. Recent summer pushed it below 80% shortly several times, but so far, those pushes were buying opportunities.

Written by SignalQuant

Stablecoins are like the blood of the coin market, especially during upward market cycles, as their increasing marketcap fuels rallies indeed.

However, an increase in stablecoin marketcap alone will not cause the coin market to rise. Rather, there must be net flows of stablecoins into exchanges for the market to rise.

Interestingly, in Sept, there was a high correlation between BTC price and stablecoin's exchange net flows, especially around the 10th and end of September, when its net inflows of stablecoins were positive for several days, contributing to the price rise.

Therefore, I believe that the net inflows of stablecoins can be a good predictor of the future price of BTC for now.

Written by SignalQuant

Ethereum has suffered a loss of activity to blockchains with greater accessibility, more technology, rapid update efficiency and also driven by crypto market narratives.

The positive Momentum sentiment is far below expectations, Open Interest reached US$9.2 billion, an inflow of US$2.12 billion in August 2024, expressing an increase in percentage terms of 30%, below the US $6 billion (50%) between April and May.

Through the Coinbase Premium Gap, a slowdown in selling pressure on the part of the American investor is observed at the same time the entry into a directional pressure triangle emphasizes a sign of lack of investment inflows of vast liquid capital are necessary to see a positive rally no future. Shortly after the FOMC did Ethereum know the price of gas increase, a sign of a possible rotation of treasury yields towards DeFi?

Lending platform Aave saw its fees at $43M in August, up around $1M from March, an insignificant growth.

Ethereum needs to revert back to its mean from an economic point of view. Internally, it goes through several gaps, ignoring the expansion of the technology ecosystem and aligning with the evolution of its competition. Today, the lack of investment is significant, and even small capital inputs and usage cannot be sustained.

Written by Percival

When the proportion of Bitcoin held by asset managers(Fund) relative to exchanges began to increase, the price of Bitcoin followed suit and began to rise.

Since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, exchanges have been holding less Bitcoin and asset managers (funds) have been holding more. This will lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin

Written by crypto sunmoon

Since the beginning of February, we have seen a decrease in Bitcoin reservations in exchanges, which is still going on. This indicates an increase in the withdrawal of Bitcoin from the exchange and a decrease in selling pressure.

Written by CryptoOnchain