BTC spot ETF approval is passed every year! Does it indicate that the second half of the year will be the half year for the counterfeit to take off?

大白熊日记 · 2023-08-11T10:27:29.000Z

Judging from the current data, BTC, which has not been moved for more than half a year, continues to rise and maintains a rapid upward trend. This shows that more investors still do not care about short-term price changes or even macro trends, and even if BlackRock’s internal information is correct, and the approval of the BTC spot ETF will not be until 2024. Therefore, it can be expected that if there are no black swans in the market, holders with long-term investment goals will continue to make huge gains. The increase has now exceeded 14.617 million BTC that have not changed hands for at least five months, accounting for 75.14% of the total circulation (Figure 1), which is more than three-quarters of the BTC in circulation. Active lock-up was carried out.

Judging from the current data, BTC holdings that have not moved for more than half a year are continuing to rise and maintain a rapid upward trend. This shows that more investors still do not care about short-term price changes or even the macro market. Even if the information within BlackRock is correct, the approval of the BTC spot ETF will not be passed until 2024. Therefore, it can be expected that if there is no black swan in the market, the holders with the goal of long-term investment will continue to increase significantly. Currently, more than 14.617 million BTC have not participated in the turnover for at least five months, accounting for 75.14% of the total circulation (Figure 1), which means that more than three-quarters of the BTC in circulation has been actively locked.
Another thing we need to keep an eye on is the stock of BTC at a single price. Due to BlackRock's re-hype a few days ago, the stock of $29,000 was partially released, which dropped slightly from the stock of nearly 1.1 million, but there are still more than 1.01 million stocks so far. At the same time, the stock of $29,500 also rose to about 750,000. Although the stock of $30,000 dropped slightly, it also remained at about 676,000. The stock of $1,000 has exceeded 2.436 million (Figure 2).
It can be said that the current crisis is not only not resolved, but is getting higher and higher. If the sentiment is positive, everything will be fine. Although it may hinder the rate of increase of some prices, if the sentiment is negative, it will easily turn into a larger-scale selling pressure. After all, they are all in a similar price range.
Of course, this does not mean that the prices of BTC and ETH will definitely fall, especially tomorrow is the weekend. With lower liquidity, the possibility of sharp rises and falls will increase. The current sentiment is relatively stable, but more chips concentrated in one position will have higher risks. In the short term, without the influence of black swans, I still think that volatility will be the main trend. It is very likely that it will still not apply in the current market to say that if it rises, it will rise, and if it falls, it will fall. Even the impact of macro sentiment on the currency market is very limited. Yesterday's CPI is the best example. In the short term, the only thing that can change the narrative style may be ETF.