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大白熊日记
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Do you still remember the ups and downs along the way?
In this cryptocurrency world full of unknowns and variables, my journey has been a road that is both grueling and full of hope. Since 2015, I have entered this emerging field with an unknown vision of digital currency. At that time, I was full of youthful energy and unlimited dreams for the future, thinking that I could make a difference in this brand new market. I had been comfortable in the more traditional stock index futures and ETF options markets, so I felt confident that I could easily navigate this freer, more active market. However, reality soon hit me hard. In the first few months, I experienced liquidation almost every month. Each time was a heavy blow, which kept me awake at night and almost lost all my confidence and hope. I started to question myself, am I really suitable for this market? Is it really possible to find a place in this volatile field? But in the most confusing and difficult moments, I told myself that I couldn’t just give up. Because although the past cannot be undone, the future is still in my hands. So, I began to slowly adjust my strategy, learning how to find lessons in losses and stay humble in victories. I gradually learned to control risks and no longer blindly pursue dreams that seemed to make me rich overnight. I began to seriously study market dynamics, analyze various trading tools and strategies, and strive to improve my skills and knowledge. Over time, I began to find my niche in this volatile market. I am no longer the eager newbie, but have become more mature and stable. I learned to stay calm in trading and not be affected by short-term fluctuations in the market. I began to focus on building a solid trading system that helped me maintain a clear mind and firm determination in the complex and ever-changing market. I also began to realize that trading is not only a game of technology and strategy, but also a psychological and emotional battle. Every fluctuation in the market is a test of my mentality. I learned how to manage my emotions, how to stay calm in the face of losses, and stay humble in the face of gains. I started paying more attention to mental health and life balance because I know that only by being mentally strong can you survive in this challenging market for the long term. Now I am a full-time trader. Although the market is still full of uncertainty, I have learned how to find opportunities in changes and seek growth in risks. I know that this road will never be smooth, but I also believe that as long as I stay determined and patient, I will be able to realize my dreams one day. On this journey, I also hope to be able to move forward with more like-minded friends. Because I know that no matter whether it is good times or bad times, you should not face it alone. Let's share experiences together, face challenges together, and celebrate every small victory together. Because in the end, we are all fighting for the same goal - to find our own piece of sky in this volatile market. Therefore, to all my friends who are struggling in the currency circle, I want to say: Don’t be afraid of failure and don’t give up easily. Every fall is the strength to stand up next time, and every failure is the only way to succeed. As long as you persist, one day you will find that all the hardships and challenges are worth it. Let's move forward together and create our own legends in this world full of possibilities.
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ETH's fourth attempt to break the 4000 mark in this cycle is really exhausting! Every time the Americans work hard at night to push it up, Asia wakes up and just sells. I don't know what they are thinking. (Sighs helplessly) This time, ETH's fourth attempt to breach the 4000 mark has been dragged down by Bitcoin. It seems that a deeper correction is necessary before it can continue to push higher. The 3800 mark is the support point.
From a long-term perspective, Ethereum definitely cannot withstand this strong resistance at 4000. This time, at most, it can be considered a failed attempt, with a correction of 1-2 weeks. Next time it approaches 4000, that would really break it, marking the start of a new round of upward momentum.
In fact, the bull market is still long, so don't rush for quick results. The market always goes up and down; it needs a year to complete its cycle, not just a few weeks. We need to be prepared for a long-term battle and try not to gamble on high-leverage contracts, as the margin for error is too low. Because those who survive until the end are the real winners!
From a long-term perspective, Ethereum definitely cannot withstand this strong resistance at 4000. This time, at most, it can be considered a failed attempt, with a correction of 1-2 weeks. Next time it approaches 4000, that would really break it, marking the start of a new round of upward momentum.
In fact, the bull market is still long, so don't rush for quick results. The market always goes up and down; it needs a year to complete its cycle, not just a few weeks. We need to be prepared for a long-term battle and try not to gamble on high-leverage contracts, as the margin for error is too low. Because those who survive until the end are the real winners!
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最近的市场，真的是让人摸不着头脑！（无奈地摇摇头）不管你是新韭菜还是老玩家，最近的行情是不是让你晕头转向？什么技术分析、历史规律，全都失灵了，市场就直接给你来了一句——“没用，别猜了！”（双手抱胸，一脸无奈）
看看现在的情况：大饼涨，山寨跌！大饼横盘，山寨继续跌！大饼跌，山寨跟着跳崖！大饼创新高，山寨还是毫无反应！最离谱的是，二饼都突破4000刀了，山寨币居然还是稳稳地躺在地上“装死”！那些曾经夸下海口，预测“大饼XX价位后，山寨就会爆发”的专家们，现在一个个都被行情打得脸肿得像猪头。（忍不住笑出声来）
那问题到底出在哪里呢？这是一个不健康的市场。优质项目太少，投机项目泛滥，坑韭菜的套路简直数都数不过来。大饼、二饼是市场公认的“主流”，而其他山寨币呢？就像你打开一袋饼干，剩下的全是饼干屑：运气好，你能捡到一块还能吃的饼干；运气不好？风一吹，连饼干屑都没了！（摊开双手，叹了口气）
那问题来了：2025年真的是牛市狂欢年吗？没有好的监管、没有健康的市场，整个加密圈还是让人看不透。大饼和二饼还是大家的首选，但山寨币的命运呢？是一飞冲天还是被彻底遗忘？（眉头紧锁，陷入思考）
你打算怎么做？继续死磕山寨币，等待那个“奇迹”发生？还是上车大饼、二饼，安心享受稳健增长？（目光坚定地看着前方）
看看现在的情况：大饼涨，山寨跌！大饼横盘，山寨继续跌！大饼跌，山寨跟着跳崖！大饼创新高，山寨还是毫无反应！最离谱的是，二饼都突破4000刀了，山寨币居然还是稳稳地躺在地上“装死”！那些曾经夸下海口，预测“大饼XX价位后，山寨就会爆发”的专家们，现在一个个都被行情打得脸肿得像猪头。（忍不住笑出声来）
那问题到底出在哪里呢？这是一个不健康的市场。优质项目太少，投机项目泛滥，坑韭菜的套路简直数都数不过来。大饼、二饼是市场公认的“主流”，而其他山寨币呢？就像你打开一袋饼干，剩下的全是饼干屑：运气好，你能捡到一块还能吃的饼干；运气不好？风一吹，连饼干屑都没了！（摊开双手，叹了口气）
那问题来了：2025年真的是牛市狂欢年吗？没有好的监管、没有健康的市场，整个加密圈还是让人看不透。大饼和二饼还是大家的首选，但山寨币的命运呢？是一飞冲天还是被彻底遗忘？（眉头紧锁，陷入思考）
你打算怎么做？继续死磕山寨币，等待那个“奇迹”发生？还是上车大饼、二饼，安心享受稳健增长？（目光坚定地看着前方）
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The results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will be announced tonight at midnight, with the current probability of a 25 basis point cut at 97%. BTC stands out almost alone, as I have long said, I currently see no threats to BTC, which continues to break previous highs. Now let me discuss the ten major reasons why BTC has no threats:
1. After the United States publicly announced that it would include BTC in its national strategic reserves, many countries including Europe, the United States, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Poland were the first to propose using BTC as a strategic reserve. In fact, the BTC we hold has also gained strategic reserve status.
2. The cost of BTC mining has increased, mining shares have increased, and production is halved every four years.
3. BTC is irreplaceable and is long-term used for transactions in gray industries, such as arms, gambling, drugs, mercenaries, and the dark web. Its daily trading volume has long remained above 200 million.
4. The preferred cryptocurrency for institutions and countries to hoard is BTC, because altcoins can be issued indefinitely by any institution.
5. The long-term game between countries and between institutions still becomes a financial war, and this game leads to turnover rates and large capital inflows.
6. The lasting effects of Trump’s presidency, as well as the effects of BlackRock, Grayscale, and others.
7. The number of retail and institutional investors in BTC is increasing globally, with known domestic investors like Lei Jun, Liu Qiangdong, and Meitu also making similar investments in BTC.
8. Bitcoin ETFs have also become an important channel for many big figures and corrupt officials to seek safe assets and transfer assets.
9. The changing regulatory environment, where most countries previously suppressed it, has gradually relaxed their regulatory policies in recent years.
10. The development of the global macro economy has made Bitcoin one of the crazily sought-after tools.
1. After the United States publicly announced that it would include BTC in its national strategic reserves, many countries including Europe, the United States, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Poland were the first to propose using BTC as a strategic reserve. In fact, the BTC we hold has also gained strategic reserve status.
2. The cost of BTC mining has increased, mining shares have increased, and production is halved every four years.
3. BTC is irreplaceable and is long-term used for transactions in gray industries, such as arms, gambling, drugs, mercenaries, and the dark web. Its daily trading volume has long remained above 200 million.
4. The preferred cryptocurrency for institutions and countries to hoard is BTC, because altcoins can be issued indefinitely by any institution.
5. The long-term game between countries and between institutions still becomes a financial war, and this game leads to turnover rates and large capital inflows.
6. The lasting effects of Trump’s presidency, as well as the effects of BlackRock, Grayscale, and others.
7. The number of retail and institutional investors in BTC is increasing globally, with known domestic investors like Lei Jun, Liu Qiangdong, and Meitu also making similar investments in BTC.
8. Bitcoin ETFs have also become an important channel for many big figures and corrupt officials to seek safe assets and transfer assets.
9. The changing regulatory environment, where most countries previously suppressed it, has gradually relaxed their regulatory policies in recent years.
10. The development of the global macro economy has made Bitcoin one of the crazily sought-after tools.
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Excuse me, what order did I randomly shout? Which order did I not open? Can you find it and show it to me? Just say it.
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大白熊日记
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Those who trade short-term, I thank you, thank you for not watching me.
I am not justifying myself, may I ask if I have ever traded short-term? Just talking nonsense? How many years has this account been open, have I ever made a short-term trade? I have said that the mid to long-term and short-term circles are different, short-term traders should not refer to me, and I also do not welcome short-term traders, do not use your three-minute trades to test me.
I trade with real money, and I really do not need to clarify anything for you.
I am not justifying myself, may I ask if I have ever traded short-term? Just talking nonsense? How many years has this account been open, have I ever made a short-term trade? I have said that the mid to long-term and short-term circles are different, short-term traders should not refer to me, and I also do not welcome short-term traders, do not use your three-minute trades to test me.
I trade with real money, and I really do not need to clarify anything for you.
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Those who trade short-term, I thank you, thank you for not watching me.
I am not justifying myself, may I ask if I have ever traded short-term? Just talking nonsense? How many years has this account been open, have I ever made a short-term trade? I have said that the mid to long-term and short-term circles are different, short-term traders should not refer to me, and I also do not welcome short-term traders, do not use your three-minute trades to test me.
I trade with real money, and I really do not need to clarify anything for you.
I am not justifying myself, may I ask if I have ever traded short-term? Just talking nonsense? How many years has this account been open, have I ever made a short-term trade? I have said that the mid to long-term and short-term circles are different, short-term traders should not refer to me, and I also do not welcome short-term traders, do not use your three-minute trades to test me.
I trade with real money, and I really do not need to clarify anything for you.
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Brother, btc I'm leaving first. This feast has come to the end. The delicacies from land and sea have long been eaten, leaving only the leftovers and the mess. The smart people have already eaten their fill and quietly left the table, but you are still reluctant to leave, clinking your bowl with chopsticks, looking forward to the next delicious and sumptuous main course. In the end, you are greeted with a huge bill for this feast. Someone always has to pay for the feast, and this time it's you who pays.
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Recently, Bitcoin has been rising alone while other coins have been plummeting, leading to severe blood-sucking. Outside investors only recognize Bitcoin. Look at the United States, where the assets under management of Bitcoin ETFs ($129.3 billion) have already surpassed those of gold ETFs ($128.9 billion).
Gold has been around for over twenty years, and Bitcoin has overtaken it; this is the charm of new things.
However, what is surprising is that Ethereum has also strengthened at this time and has not experienced blood-sucking declines. This is a very good signal. The resistance level we've been talking about has been broken and stabilized, making things easier going forward. The Federal Reserve is also about to cut interest rates, which is all positive news. We are just waiting for a flood of liquidity to flow into the cryptocurrency market.
Gold has been around for over twenty years, and Bitcoin has overtaken it; this is the charm of new things.
However, what is surprising is that Ethereum has also strengthened at this time and has not experienced blood-sucking declines. This is a very good signal. The resistance level we've been talking about has been broken and stabilized, making things easier going forward. The Federal Reserve is also about to cut interest rates, which is all positive news. We are just waiting for a flood of liquidity to flow into the cryptocurrency market.
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At the beginning of November, I want to break even
At the beginning of December, I want to add a zero to my assets
Now, teacher, I really just want to break even
At the beginning of December, I want to add a zero to my assets
Now, teacher, I really just want to break even
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Holding coins is like being a widow; 2024 is an extraordinary year. Personally, I feel this is the most challenging year in the sixteen-year history of cryptocurrencies! This cycle is vastly different from previous ones. Since October 2023, when Bitcoin broke the bull-bear divide, up until now, even now, most coins have failed to outperform Bitcoin (15888 - 106666).
Some quality coins have many participants; however, most people get off midway, buying at the bottom and selling, or selling and then buying again. Looking back from the end of 2023 to the first half of 2024, coins like XRP and Dogecoin have basically shown no significant increase. Even the most popular coin of the year, Pepe, has gone through a washout for over ten months, but in the end, the increase came, and most people still lost money. Why is that? Just three words — can't hold. Too many people focus too much on the news and are overly concerned with various analyses. Investment inherently has cycles; in real life, everyone understands this principle, but once they enter the crypto space, it’s as if they become a different person, thinking that once they invest, they must see returns, doubling in a month or just a few days, and it can't drop. If it drops, they claim a certain coin is trash or just a pump-and-dump scheme. Such talk plays out every day in the crypto space. The essence of investment is cyclical, measured in months and concluded in years. Looking at Bitcoin, its rise from the bottom of 15888, was that just a matter of a few months? After experiencing several major drops in May, July, and August over more than a year, you can only enjoy the current returns if you can hold on. The negativity among most people in the crypto space is too heavy; it’s either insults or more insults, never understanding the need to calm down and reflect on their investments and mindset. The financial market is not suitable for most ordinary people to invest in; most do not know how to improve themselves, always dreaming of getting rich every day. When contracts get liquidated, they blame the heavens and the earth, never considering their own issues. Therefore, the market will always follow the 80/20 rule, with only a few making money while most lose, with those who have awareness making money off those who do not. Without personal growth, filled with nothing but anger and insults, their wallets remain empty... The year 2025 is about to begin, and there is still opportunity in the market, but it has already gone halfway. I hope everyone can stay safe.
Some quality coins have many participants; however, most people get off midway, buying at the bottom and selling, or selling and then buying again. Looking back from the end of 2023 to the first half of 2024, coins like XRP and Dogecoin have basically shown no significant increase. Even the most popular coin of the year, Pepe, has gone through a washout for over ten months, but in the end, the increase came, and most people still lost money. Why is that? Just three words — can't hold. Too many people focus too much on the news and are overly concerned with various analyses. Investment inherently has cycles; in real life, everyone understands this principle, but once they enter the crypto space, it’s as if they become a different person, thinking that once they invest, they must see returns, doubling in a month or just a few days, and it can't drop. If it drops, they claim a certain coin is trash or just a pump-and-dump scheme. Such talk plays out every day in the crypto space. The essence of investment is cyclical, measured in months and concluded in years. Looking at Bitcoin, its rise from the bottom of 15888, was that just a matter of a few months? After experiencing several major drops in May, July, and August over more than a year, you can only enjoy the current returns if you can hold on. The negativity among most people in the crypto space is too heavy; it’s either insults or more insults, never understanding the need to calm down and reflect on their investments and mindset. The financial market is not suitable for most ordinary people to invest in; most do not know how to improve themselves, always dreaming of getting rich every day. When contracts get liquidated, they blame the heavens and the earth, never considering their own issues. Therefore, the market will always follow the 80/20 rule, with only a few making money while most lose, with those who have awareness making money off those who do not. Without personal growth, filled with nothing but anger and insults, their wallets remain empty... The year 2025 is about to begin, and there is still opportunity in the market, but it has already gone halfway. I hope everyone can stay safe.
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Currently, the market's funds are mainly concentrated on BTC. Once it breaks through a new high, it is expected to enter a period of sideways consolidation. Subsequently, some funds will flow back to the altcoin market, driving a rebound in altcoins and ultimately achieving a balanced distribution of funds.
So, why is the market exhibiting a polarized trend today? This actually indicates that after the last interest rate cut, the scale of funds in the market has grown to a certain extent. However, it still cannot support both BTC and altcoins rising simultaneously.
In other words, the market's liquidity and allocation of funds have yet to fully cover, resulting in funds primarily aggregating in BTC while altcoins have not kept pace.
To reverse this situation, the Federal Reserve needs to further implement interest rate cuts and strengthen loose monetary policy to stimulate market liquidity and encourage further influx of funds. The monetary policy adjustments expected after this Thursday may bring a "spring rain" to inject more funds into the market, thereby guiding funds towards altcoins.
As for the current pullback in altcoins, from another perspective, does this also present an opportunity for replenishment before the next rebound?
So, why is the market exhibiting a polarized trend today? This actually indicates that after the last interest rate cut, the scale of funds in the market has grown to a certain extent. However, it still cannot support both BTC and altcoins rising simultaneously.
In other words, the market's liquidity and allocation of funds have yet to fully cover, resulting in funds primarily aggregating in BTC while altcoins have not kept pace.
To reverse this situation, the Federal Reserve needs to further implement interest rate cuts and strengthen loose monetary policy to stimulate market liquidity and encourage further influx of funds. The monetary policy adjustments expected after this Thursday may bring a "spring rain" to inject more funds into the market, thereby guiding funds towards altcoins.
As for the current pullback in altcoins, from another perspective, does this also present an opportunity for replenishment before the next rebound?
See original
Keep an eye out! This year's finale—the Federal Reserve interest rate decision—will make a grand entrance at 3 AM on the 19th (which is the night of the 18th, Wednesday)!
The market generally bets on a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. A larger cut would be a huge surprise, while a smaller cut or no cut at all could change the situation dramatically. If there is indeed a 25 basis point cut, don't blink; Powell's speech at 3:30 is the key moment. The warning for volatility 'jumping up and down' has already sounded, so let’s wait for the grand show to begin!
The market generally bets on a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. A larger cut would be a huge surprise, while a smaller cut or no cut at all could change the situation dramatically. If there is indeed a 25 basis point cut, don't blink; Powell's speech at 3:30 is the key moment. The warning for volatility 'jumping up and down' has already sounded, so let’s wait for the grand show to begin!
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$BTC has once again broken a new high, reaching 106,000, but a glance at social media shows that everyone seems very calm, lacking the excitement that accompanied the previous bull market's new highs.
The reasons are quite clear:
1⃣ This wave is driven by institutions pulling the strings, mainly pushing BTC, and there isn't much new capital flowing into other altcoins; for example, ETH has yet to reach a new high.
2⃣ More and more new assets are emerging, which is diluting the pool of funds. Assets like NFTs and inscriptions are siphoning off liquidity, and retail investors, aiming for high returns, are unlikely to heavily invest in Bitcoin.
In web2, buying Bitcoin is seen as a highly risky operation; whereas in web3, purchasing Bitcoin is considered the least risky operation. This reflects the world's disparities.
I firmly believe that there will still be a market for altcoins this time; however, due to the excess of assets and highly dispersed liquidity, how many altcoins can yield returns that surpass Bitcoin?
For the upcoming altcoin market layout, I think we need to focus on two key concepts:
1. The reservoir for funds overflowed from Bitcoin, namely ETH and XRP.
2. President Trump's selected picks, including DeFi, U.S. projects, and compliant concepts like LINK, AAVE, ENA, ONDO, etc., need to be closely monitored in Trump's wallet.
The reasons are quite clear:
1⃣ This wave is driven by institutions pulling the strings, mainly pushing BTC, and there isn't much new capital flowing into other altcoins; for example, ETH has yet to reach a new high.
2⃣ More and more new assets are emerging, which is diluting the pool of funds. Assets like NFTs and inscriptions are siphoning off liquidity, and retail investors, aiming for high returns, are unlikely to heavily invest in Bitcoin.
In web2, buying Bitcoin is seen as a highly risky operation; whereas in web3, purchasing Bitcoin is considered the least risky operation. This reflects the world's disparities.
I firmly believe that there will still be a market for altcoins this time; however, due to the excess of assets and highly dispersed liquidity, how many altcoins can yield returns that surpass Bitcoin?
For the upcoming altcoin market layout, I think we need to focus on two key concepts:
1. The reservoir for funds overflowed from Bitcoin, namely ETH and XRP.
2. President Trump's selected picks, including DeFi, U.S. projects, and compliant concepts like LINK, AAVE, ENA, ONDO, etc., need to be closely monitored in Trump's wallet.
See original
This week's interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is already a foregone conclusion!
Although the CPI inflation in the United States has stalled in November, this may not prevent the Federal Reserve from implementing an interest rate cut next week. On Thursday, the market broadly expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting, with the federal funds futures market currently indicating that Federal Reserve officials will almost certainly choose to cut rates by 25 basis points again at the FOMC meeting on December 17-18.
It is worth mentioning that this expectation does not stem from the latest inflation data, but rather from the overall economic development trends. From July 2023 to September 2024, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and maintained them at a level of 5.25% to 5.50%. The economic environment at that time was quite different from the current one; although inflation has not yet reached the Federal Reserve's 2% target, it has significantly decreased from its peak, and employment conditions are gradually stabilizing.
Federal Reserve officials tend to favor further rate cuts to normalize policy, avoiding constraints on economic growth or worsening employment conditions. At the same time, media analysis warns not to be surprised by the forward guidance issued by the Federal Reserve after next week's rate cut; the Federal Reserve may cautiously consider the pace of subsequent rate cuts, and they might hint at pausing rate cuts at the beginning of the year and reducing the number of rate cuts in 2025.
Although the CPI inflation in the United States has stalled in November, this may not prevent the Federal Reserve from implementing an interest rate cut next week. On Thursday, the market broadly expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting, with the federal funds futures market currently indicating that Federal Reserve officials will almost certainly choose to cut rates by 25 basis points again at the FOMC meeting on December 17-18.
It is worth mentioning that this expectation does not stem from the latest inflation data, but rather from the overall economic development trends. From July 2023 to September 2024, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and maintained them at a level of 5.25% to 5.50%. The economic environment at that time was quite different from the current one; although inflation has not yet reached the Federal Reserve's 2% target, it has significantly decreased from its peak, and employment conditions are gradually stabilizing.
Federal Reserve officials tend to favor further rate cuts to normalize policy, avoiding constraints on economic growth or worsening employment conditions. At the same time, media analysis warns not to be surprised by the forward guidance issued by the Federal Reserve after next week's rate cut; the Federal Reserve may cautiously consider the pace of subsequent rate cuts, and they might hint at pausing rate cuts at the beginning of the year and reducing the number of rate cuts in 2025.
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After the recent bull market correction, the price of ETH has once again stabilized above $3900. Looking back at the development of Ethereum over the past year, it contains many complex factors and emotions. On one hand, the Cancun upgrade was successfully completed, and the spot ETF was officially approved, showcasing a brand new face of the bull market from both technical and fundamental perspectives; however, on the other hand, as Bitcoin, SOL, and BNB continuously set new historical highs, the price of ETH still hovers around the $4000 mark.
From the price chart of ETH this year shown above, it can be seen that Ethereum has experienced three main phases this year, each corresponding to different reasons for the price increases. At the beginning of the year, the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF led to a surge in Ethereum's price, which briefly broke through $4100, but by the end of March, it began to decline alongside the overall market trend. Additionally, due to the strong surge of SOL and its ecosystem, Ethereum's ecosystem faced significant outflow of liquidity.
In May, after the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, the price briefly surged, but its demand was not as strong as that of Bitcoin. The initial market reaction to the launch of the Ethereum ETF was negative, as speculative investors who bought Grayscale Ethereum Trust and expected its conversion to ETF took profits, leading to a $1 billion outflow of funds, which applied downward pressure on Ethereum's price. Furthermore, the narrative of ETH leaning towards tech innovation products was more difficult to impress the traditional market compared to BTC's 'digital gold', and the SEC's restrictions on the Ethereum spot ETF's involvement in staking functions objectively weakened its attractiveness.
After this, the Ethereum Foundation, re-staking ecosystem, and roadmap disputes followed, plunging Ethereum into a dark period.
In November, after the U.S. elections were settled, the pro-crypto Republican Party and Trump injected stronger confidence and liquidity into the entire crypto ecosystem, which led to Ethereum experiencing its third wave of price increase this year.
This time, the increase is different from the past; institutional investors have clearly entered the market, and the liquidity fundamentals have improved. This indicates to us that the market is using funds to tell us what institutions recognize and are optimistic about; moreover, Ethereum is destined to continue its original intention of being the 'world computer'.
From the price chart of ETH this year shown above, it can be seen that Ethereum has experienced three main phases this year, each corresponding to different reasons for the price increases. At the beginning of the year, the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF led to a surge in Ethereum's price, which briefly broke through $4100, but by the end of March, it began to decline alongside the overall market trend. Additionally, due to the strong surge of SOL and its ecosystem, Ethereum's ecosystem faced significant outflow of liquidity.
In May, after the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, the price briefly surged, but its demand was not as strong as that of Bitcoin. The initial market reaction to the launch of the Ethereum ETF was negative, as speculative investors who bought Grayscale Ethereum Trust and expected its conversion to ETF took profits, leading to a $1 billion outflow of funds, which applied downward pressure on Ethereum's price. Furthermore, the narrative of ETH leaning towards tech innovation products was more difficult to impress the traditional market compared to BTC's 'digital gold', and the SEC's restrictions on the Ethereum spot ETF's involvement in staking functions objectively weakened its attractiveness.
After this, the Ethereum Foundation, re-staking ecosystem, and roadmap disputes followed, plunging Ethereum into a dark period.
In November, after the U.S. elections were settled, the pro-crypto Republican Party and Trump injected stronger confidence and liquidity into the entire crypto ecosystem, which led to Ethereum experiencing its third wave of price increase this year.
This time, the increase is different from the past; institutional investors have clearly entered the market, and the liquidity fundamentals have improved. This indicates to us that the market is using funds to tell us what institutions recognize and are optimistic about; moreover, Ethereum is destined to continue its original intention of being the 'world computer'.
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Last Tuesday, the number of liquidations across the entire network reached 530,000. By this Monday, liquidation situations have occurred again, with the number reaching as high as 80,000. It's truly one batch after another, no wonder Trump is tirelessly promoting cryptocurrency; there's indeed good money to be made.
If your understanding of this market has not yet reached a certain level, you must maintain sufficient patience and learn to control your own hands.
Otherwise, when the results come out, ask yourself if you are satisfied?
If your understanding of this market has not yet reached a certain level, you must maintain sufficient patience and learn to control your own hands.
Otherwise, when the results come out, ask yourself if you are satisfied?
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The progress of the altcoin bull market is only 20%, and a new high can be reached in just 7 days.
Many people are unwilling to fabricate nonsense like "this round has no altcoin season" or "80% of altcoins won't rise this time."
I will give everyone peace of mind: using Bitcoin's new high as a reference, the progress of the altcoin bull market is about 20%, and there are still ample opportunities to enter.
Many altcoins are still in a semi-dead state, struggling to break through as Bitcoin continues to set new highs, with only a few starting to gain momentum, such as XRP, ADA, TRX, XLM, and LINK, which are either reaching new highs or approaching previous highs.
The vast majority of second-tier altcoins listed on major exchanges are still hovering around bear market levels.
This is precisely the opportunity; as long as the project is still operational, and the code repository and social media updates are not interrupted, there is a high probability that institutions have already intervened and established control. Once the timing is right, in 7 days or even one day, you could see a three to five-fold increase, and in less than a month, it could result in a sudden explosion of several years' worth of consolidation.
Any second-tier altcoin on major exchanges will experience a massive surge in a true bull market, with 99% expected to explode, starting from a three to five-fold increase, and a significant portion may even exceed ten times.
This means that the seeds of altcoin season's explosive growth were planted during the bear market; no matter how you tell the story, as long as liquidity is rampant, even the oldest assets will have a chance to explode, and there is no need to search for stories yourself; just pushing the price up is enough, as there are "researchers" ready to write the script for you.
In the face of a real explosive surge, a 50% rise or fall feels like no volatility at all. But for the average investor, a few times or ten times the gain is acceptable, while a drop of twenty or thirty points feels like a devastating loss.
The coins that can experience a dramatic surge must have once been seen as junk by the average investor.
Because every dramatic surge must go through a long and bloody process of washing and consolidating.
The painful oppression and a lack of hope in the market are precisely the sources of profit, while the excitement and immediate big bullish candles that most investors love are the fundamental reasons why they lose everything after buying at high prices.
The vast majority of assets may remain lifeless for years, with a surge lasting only a week or two. Only a very small number of assets, like BTC, provide a tangible and bulldozer-like bull market process.
Many people are unwilling to fabricate nonsense like "this round has no altcoin season" or "80% of altcoins won't rise this time."
I will give everyone peace of mind: using Bitcoin's new high as a reference, the progress of the altcoin bull market is about 20%, and there are still ample opportunities to enter.
Many altcoins are still in a semi-dead state, struggling to break through as Bitcoin continues to set new highs, with only a few starting to gain momentum, such as XRP, ADA, TRX, XLM, and LINK, which are either reaching new highs or approaching previous highs.
The vast majority of second-tier altcoins listed on major exchanges are still hovering around bear market levels.
This is precisely the opportunity; as long as the project is still operational, and the code repository and social media updates are not interrupted, there is a high probability that institutions have already intervened and established control. Once the timing is right, in 7 days or even one day, you could see a three to five-fold increase, and in less than a month, it could result in a sudden explosion of several years' worth of consolidation.
Any second-tier altcoin on major exchanges will experience a massive surge in a true bull market, with 99% expected to explode, starting from a three to five-fold increase, and a significant portion may even exceed ten times.
This means that the seeds of altcoin season's explosive growth were planted during the bear market; no matter how you tell the story, as long as liquidity is rampant, even the oldest assets will have a chance to explode, and there is no need to search for stories yourself; just pushing the price up is enough, as there are "researchers" ready to write the script for you.
In the face of a real explosive surge, a 50% rise or fall feels like no volatility at all. But for the average investor, a few times or ten times the gain is acceptable, while a drop of twenty or thirty points feels like a devastating loss.
The coins that can experience a dramatic surge must have once been seen as junk by the average investor.
Because every dramatic surge must go through a long and bloody process of washing and consolidating.
The painful oppression and a lack of hope in the market are precisely the sources of profit, while the excitement and immediate big bullish candles that most investors love are the fundamental reasons why they lose everything after buying at high prices.
The vast majority of assets may remain lifeless for years, with a surge lasting only a week or two. Only a very small number of assets, like BTC, provide a tangible and bulldozer-like bull market process.
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The craze for altcoins often erupts suddenly after Bitcoin reaches a peak. We can break this process down into three stages:
Stage One: Bitcoin Shines Brightly
Expected Time: From the Bitcoin halving in 2024 until early 2025. During this stage, Bitcoin will become the focal point of the entire market, with funds primarily flowing into 'digital gold', while altcoins remain relatively quiet.
Stage Two: Ethereum Leads the Trend of Smart Contracts
Expected Time: The first half of 2025. At this time, institutional funds begin to shift towards smart contracts and infrastructure assets, and platforms like Ethereum are about to迎来 a prosperous spring.
Stage Three: A Tangle of Frenzy and Panic
Expected Time: From mid-2025 to the end of the year. With a massive influx of retail investors, the market will showcase a variety of 'meme coins' vying for attention and blooming in competition, with funds flowing rapidly. In this stage, distinguishing between genuine opportunities and potential traps becomes exceptionally important.
Stage One: Bitcoin Shines Brightly
Expected Time: From the Bitcoin halving in 2024 until early 2025. During this stage, Bitcoin will become the focal point of the entire market, with funds primarily flowing into 'digital gold', while altcoins remain relatively quiet.
Stage Two: Ethereum Leads the Trend of Smart Contracts
Expected Time: The first half of 2025. At this time, institutional funds begin to shift towards smart contracts and infrastructure assets, and platforms like Ethereum are about to迎来 a prosperous spring.
Stage Three: A Tangle of Frenzy and Panic
Expected Time: From mid-2025 to the end of the year. With a massive influx of retail investors, the market will showcase a variety of 'meme coins' vying for attention and blooming in competition, with funds flowing rapidly. In this stage, distinguishing between genuine opportunities and potential traps becomes exceptionally important.
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I just checked the market, and ONDO surprisingly broke through 2U this morning. I entered at a price of 0.73U. RWA is definitely the leader, and with the bull market continuing, the future price is even more promising! At the time, when I had to choose between BOME and ONDO, I was lucky not to make the wrong choice. After I built my position in ONDO, I remember BOME skyrocketed to around 0.11U, while ONDO remained stagnant, causing many people to mock me as a contrarian indicator. However, let's let the bullets fly a bit longer 😄. BOME has too much weight on it right now, and many people are saying that Squirrel #PNUT also has too much weight and will follow a similar path as BOME. However, I believe that being listed on Coinbase is enough to prove that Squirrel PNUT is different from BOME. From the background story, Squirrel PNUT can outpace BOME by a long shot.
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