LIVE大白熊财经1
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Do you still remember the ups and downs along the way?
In this cryptocurrency world full of unknowns and variables, my journey has been a road that is both grueling and full of hope. Since 2015, I have entered this emerging field with an unknown vision of digital currency. At that time, I was full of youthful energy and unlimited dreams for the future, thinking that I could make a difference in this brand new market. I had been comfortable in the more traditional stock index futures and ETF options markets, so I felt confident that I could easily navigate this freer, more active market. However, reality soon hit me hard. In the first few months, I experienced liquidation almost every month. Each time was a heavy blow, which kept me awake at night and almost lost all my confidence and hope. I started to question myself, am I really suitable for this market? Is it really possible to find a place in this volatile field? But in the most confusing and difficult moments, I told myself that I couldn’t just give up. Because although the past cannot be undone, the future is still in my hands. So, I began to slowly adjust my strategy, learning how to find lessons in losses and stay humble in victories. I gradually learned to control risks and no longer blindly pursue dreams that seemed to make me rich overnight. I began to seriously study market dynamics, analyze various trading tools and strategies, and strive to improve my skills and knowledge. Over time, I began to find my niche in this volatile market. I am no longer the eager newbie, but have become more mature and stable. I learned to stay calm in trading and not be affected by short-term fluctuations in the market. I began to focus on building a solid trading system that helped me maintain a clear mind and firm determination in the complex and ever-changing market. I also began to realize that trading is not only a game of technology and strategy, but also a psychological and emotional battle. Every fluctuation in the market is a test of my mentality. I learned how to manage my emotions, how to stay calm in the face of losses, and stay humble in the face of gains. I started paying more attention to mental health and life balance because I know that only by being mentally strong can you survive in this challenging market for the long term. Now I am a full-time trader. Although the market is still full of uncertainty, I have learned how to find opportunities in changes and seek growth in risks. I know that this road will never be smooth, but I also believe that as long as I stay determined and patient, I will be able to realize my dreams one day. On this journey, I also hope to be able to move forward with more like-minded friends. Because I know that no matter whether it is good times or bad times, you should not face it alone. Let's share experiences together, face challenges together, and celebrate every small victory together. Because in the end, we are all fighting for the same goal - to find our own piece of sky in this volatile market. Therefore, to all my friends who are struggling in the currency circle, I want to say: Don’t be afraid of failure and don’t give up easily. Every fall is the strength to stand up next time, and every failure is the only way to succeed. As long as you persist, one day you will find that all the hardships and challenges are worth it. Let's move forward together and create our own legends in this world full of possibilities.
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This week we have two key deadlines for ETH ETF applications from VanEck and ARK. In fact, one only needs to keep an eye on the outcome of VanEck’s application on May 23rd, as we can assume that decisions will be made on all other ETH ETF applications on the same day, just as we had a decision on the BTC ETF in January. If VanEck’s application is rejected, all other applications may also be rejected, if it is delayed, all other applications will also be delayed, and so on.
The market generally believes that the ETH ETF will not be approved in May. Since this consensus has been formed in the past few weeks, the rejection has also been priced in, which is why I don’t think such a decision will lead to a big market correction. Maybe a short-term overreaction, but not a long-term one. On the other hand, since the market expected the rejection weeks ago, the approval may not be a sell-off news event like the BTC ETF, but instead will lead to a big rally and a reversal in ETH/Bitcoin. This is also bullish for alts.
As I said before, even if the ETH ETF is rejected in May, I don’t think they will be rejected by the SEC forever. BlackRock has only received 1 ETF application rejection, and the recent news of JPMorgan or Wells Fargo holding BTC ETFs confirms the huge institutional demand for cryptocurrency-related ETFs. Once the ETF is approved, there is a large amount of institutional funds ready to flow into ETH.
The market generally believes that the ETH ETF will not be approved in May. Since this consensus has been formed in the past few weeks, the rejection has also been priced in, which is why I don’t think such a decision will lead to a big market correction. Maybe a short-term overreaction, but not a long-term one. On the other hand, since the market expected the rejection weeks ago, the approval may not be a sell-off news event like the BTC ETF, but instead will lead to a big rally and a reversal in ETH/Bitcoin. This is also bullish for alts.
As I said before, even if the ETH ETF is rejected in May, I don’t think they will be rejected by the SEC forever. BlackRock has only received 1 ETF application rejection, and the recent news of JPMorgan or Wells Fargo holding BTC ETFs confirms the huge institutional demand for cryptocurrency-related ETFs. Once the ETF is approved, there is a large amount of institutional funds ready to flow into ETH.
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What is an opportunity? How to seize the opportunity?
1. You have to see an opportunity this time.
2. You must have money to buy it, or be willing to take risks and leverage it.
3. You have to determine future growth.
4. You have to invest heavily in it
5. You have to be able to hold it for a long time
6. You have to cash out at a high level
If you meet these conditions, if you invest 1 million, it may become more than 10 million after a bull market!
When investing, you need to see the high probability of things that are certain in the future, and then stick to investing.
1. You have to see an opportunity this time.
2. You must have money to buy it, or be willing to take risks and leverage it.
3. You have to determine future growth.
4. You have to invest heavily in it
5. You have to be able to hold it for a long time
6. You have to cash out at a high level
If you meet these conditions, if you invest 1 million, it may become more than 10 million after a bull market!
When investing, you need to see the high probability of things that are certain in the future, and then stick to investing.
See original
In the past, it was difficult for me to understand why retail investors were losing money even though it was a bull market.
In addition to the above-mentioned large positions in contracts, what is even more exaggerated is that some people still lose money without leverage.
I found out later that their hands were full of garbage.
What is garbage? I'll just give you a standard.
1. After the big pie explodes, do not follow the rise and just barely adjust a few points.
2. After the big pie exploded, it entered a high position and fluctuated sideways. This was the best opportunity for me to perform, but unfortunately it still didn't move.
3. The market began to pull back, and it immediately dived and could not recover.
If the above three points are met, you can discard them all and delete them of your choice.
Many people have obsessions, that is, the obvious anchoring effect and sunk cost, the pie has taken so much, I have been holding it for so long, and it has not risen much, so it will definitely rise, and I have to hold on to it.
Then it was tragic.
In every bull round, in addition to the underlying liquidity injection, on the surface, there must be one or two hot spots that can get out of the circle. The funds must have a story, even if it is a lame garbage story.
21 years of defi, nft, gamefi.
The running shoes of the 22-year bear market are gmt.
Now L1 and so on.
In this circle, the new people must be better than the old people, and the old people will never cry.
In addition to the above-mentioned large positions in contracts, what is even more exaggerated is that some people still lose money without leverage.
I found out later that their hands were full of garbage.
What is garbage? I'll just give you a standard.
1. After the big pie explodes, do not follow the rise and just barely adjust a few points.
2. After the big pie exploded, it entered a high position and fluctuated sideways. This was the best opportunity for me to perform, but unfortunately it still didn't move.
3. The market began to pull back, and it immediately dived and could not recover.
If the above three points are met, you can discard them all and delete them of your choice.
Many people have obsessions, that is, the obvious anchoring effect and sunk cost, the pie has taken so much, I have been holding it for so long, and it has not risen much, so it will definitely rise, and I have to hold on to it.
Then it was tragic.
In every bull round, in addition to the underlying liquidity injection, on the surface, there must be one or two hot spots that can get out of the circle. The funds must have a story, even if it is a lame garbage story.
21 years of defi, nft, gamefi.
The running shoes of the 22-year bear market are gmt.
Now L1 and so on.
In this circle, the new people must be better than the old people, and the old people will never cry.
See original
The overall rise of the MEME sector may be related to the abnormal movement of GameStop. Retail investors have once again exploded with amazing power! In fact, the MEME series is an independent existence in the cryptocurrency circle. The investment and research projects themselves are not very helpful. We should focus more on the development of the MEME community and potential good news in the market. I have to sigh at the strength of the meme community.
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Institutions hold nearly half of the total Bitcoin, but it does not mean that nearly half of the institutions hold Bitcoin!
Currently, well-known investment banks that hold Bitcoin are still rare, and they may hold it on behalf of their clients. For example, JPMorgan Chase holds $1.16 trillion in US stocks, but only holds $760,000 in Bitcoin spot ETFs, which is less than one ten-thousandth of its asset management scale. (The market value of Bitcoin is very high. I personally think that Bitcoin has the potential to double, and the rise and fall is weaker than other cycles)
Currently, well-known investment banks that hold Bitcoin are still rare, and they may hold it on behalf of their clients. For example, JPMorgan Chase holds $1.16 trillion in US stocks, but only holds $760,000 in Bitcoin spot ETFs, which is less than one ten-thousandth of its asset management scale. (The market value of Bitcoin is very high. I personally think that Bitcoin has the potential to double, and the rise and fall is weaker than other cycles)
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1: Bitcoin's first halving took 11 months to reach its peak, with an increase of 262 times.
2: Bitcoin's second halving took 16 months to reach its peak, with an increase of 53 times.
3: Bitcoin's third halving took 17 months to reach its peak, with an increase of 18 times.
Bitcoin's fourth halving on April 20, 2024, will take ___ months to reach its peak, with an increase of ___ times?
2: Bitcoin's second halving took 16 months to reach its peak, with an increase of 53 times.
3: Bitcoin's third halving took 17 months to reach its peak, with an increase of 18 times.
Bitcoin's fourth halving on April 20, 2024, will take ___ months to reach its peak, with an increase of ___ times?
See original
This market is actually more torturous than a bear market.
In a bear market, we at least know that it is a bear market, so we should cut our losses and short sell when necessary.
But now it is a bull market, the market has been fluctuating at a low level, and the continuous decline is always a needle to stimulate the fragile nerves.
Many newbies entered the market during the last round of surge, and almost stood on the top of the mountain.
These waves of continuous plunges have made them completely lose hope. They were originally prepared to kill all sides in the currency circle, but now they have lost everything.
The root cause is too short-sighted and too concerned about the current market.
Ups and downs are just a process. What can bring us benefits is the future bull market. Everything now is false.
A good mentality is the first rule for survival in the currency circle.
Come on!
In a bear market, we at least know that it is a bear market, so we should cut our losses and short sell when necessary.
But now it is a bull market, the market has been fluctuating at a low level, and the continuous decline is always a needle to stimulate the fragile nerves.
Many newbies entered the market during the last round of surge, and almost stood on the top of the mountain.
These waves of continuous plunges have made them completely lose hope. They were originally prepared to kill all sides in the currency circle, but now they have lost everything.
The root cause is too short-sighted and too concerned about the current market.
Ups and downs are just a process. What can bring us benefits is the future bull market. Everything now is false.
A good mentality is the first rule for survival in the currency circle.
Come on!
See original
The third good signal of macroeconomic improvement: April CPI and core CPI were lower than the previous value both year-on-year and month-on-month, and even CPI was slightly lower than expected month-on-month.
The market needs to gradually confirm some signals while waiting for improvement. This is a process of confidence recovery and reconstruction, which is prone to twists and turns. It cannot be said that the current market is completely positive, but it is also a step forward.
The market needs to gradually confirm some signals while waiting for improvement. This is a process of confidence recovery and reconstruction, which is prone to twists and turns. It cannot be said that the current market is completely positive, but it is also a step forward.
See original
Before a serious economic crisis is about to occur.
When a large number of black swan bad news appears.
When everyone panics and sells their stocks.
When the daily liquidity is about to flow into the market.
A bull market will definitely appear.
The emergence of a bull market is not due to the explosive growth of a certain industry.
But when hot money flows into it,
When people have no place to invest their money and dare not spend it
When this consistency is ahead of the consistency,
a bull market will appear.
When a large number of black swan bad news appears.
When everyone panics and sells their stocks.
When the daily liquidity is about to flow into the market.
A bull market will definitely appear.
The emergence of a bull market is not due to the explosive growth of a certain industry.
But when hot money flows into it,
When people have no place to invest their money and dare not spend it
When this consistency is ahead of the consistency,
a bull market will appear.
See original
Why was the previous bull market so fierce, while the current bull market seems dull?
First, looking back at the past market, there were relatively few types of digital assets, and investors had limited choice. The market capitalization was not large at the time, so some projects, even if the market capitalization was only tens of millions of dollars, could easily increase tenfold or even a hundredfold as long as there was some buying.
Second, in comparison, the current market's circulating market capitalization is huge, and the amount of funds required to achieve several times growth is also correspondingly huge. A tenfold increase in the market capitalization of $100 million and a tenfold increase in the market capitalization of $1 billion are completely different concepts.
Third, the past market lacked the diversity of the present. Today, the crypto market is full of various types of projects, including pledge sectors, AI sectors, DeFi, Meme, etc. Investors have a wider range of choices, resulting in frequent changes in market hotspots.
Fourth, the number of investors participating in the market is relatively limited, and the popularity is not enough. Many people still do not have a clear concept of Bitcoin and blockchain.
Finally, some current project parties may lack the pattern and vision of the past, and are more concerned about how to profit from it, rather than how to promote consensus and technological development, and how to improve the long-term value of the project.
First, looking back at the past market, there were relatively few types of digital assets, and investors had limited choice. The market capitalization was not large at the time, so some projects, even if the market capitalization was only tens of millions of dollars, could easily increase tenfold or even a hundredfold as long as there was some buying.
Second, in comparison, the current market's circulating market capitalization is huge, and the amount of funds required to achieve several times growth is also correspondingly huge. A tenfold increase in the market capitalization of $100 million and a tenfold increase in the market capitalization of $1 billion are completely different concepts.
Third, the past market lacked the diversity of the present. Today, the crypto market is full of various types of projects, including pledge sectors, AI sectors, DeFi, Meme, etc. Investors have a wider range of choices, resulting in frequent changes in market hotspots.
Fourth, the number of investors participating in the market is relatively limited, and the popularity is not enough. Many people still do not have a clear concept of Bitcoin and blockchain.
Finally, some current project parties may lack the pattern and vision of the past, and are more concerned about how to profit from it, rather than how to promote consensus and technological development, and how to improve the long-term value of the project.
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At present, it is better not to touch the tokens that are unlocked in large amounts. The market itself is in a state of liquidity depletion at this stage. The increase in supply has not increased demand accordingly. It is a matter of falling. In the state of market sentiment FOMO, the comprehensive situation of market sentiment, project performance, liquidity, market trends, etc. may still be expected. Staying away from large unlocked tokens will at least avoid pitfalls. It is relatively safer to choose platform coins, fully circulated, and public chain tokens, which can at least steadily reap the dividends of the bull market trend.
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4 sad stories in the cryptocurrency circle, how many have you experienced?
1. When you are close to recovering your investment, the rebound stops abruptly
2. When you are out of profit, a dark horse emerges
3. When you are complacent, the crash comes as expected
4. When you are penniless, good coins are everywhere
1. When you are close to recovering your investment, the rebound stops abruptly
2. When you are out of profit, a dark horse emerges
3. When you are complacent, the crash comes as expected
4. When you are penniless, good coins are everywhere
See original
Are you curious about the recent news that major institutions and whales are buying, but the price of the currency is falling instead of rising?
In fact, the logic is very simple. Since the ETF data of major institutions does not show shipments due to high fluctuations, unless the data is falsified, it is the fluctuations and declines that attract funds in batches.
The decline and absorption will benefit them. It just so happens that retail investors thought that the bull market would come immediately after the production cuts. In fact, the cycle is that the few months after the production cuts are basically a shock and wash market. Many people will be washed out during this period. Don't doubt the ability of the dealer to wash the market. It will wash you to doubt your life.
Then the big surge will start, which you can't imagine!
In fact, the logic is very simple. Since the ETF data of major institutions does not show shipments due to high fluctuations, unless the data is falsified, it is the fluctuations and declines that attract funds in batches.
The decline and absorption will benefit them. It just so happens that retail investors thought that the bull market would come immediately after the production cuts. In fact, the cycle is that the few months after the production cuts are basically a shock and wash market. Many people will be washed out during this period. Don't doubt the ability of the dealer to wash the market. It will wash you to doubt your life.
Then the big surge will start, which you can't imagine!
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