Tracking demand for Bitcoin and digital assets is not easy, but one of the most useful ways is through the amount of money allocated to stablecoins.

Tether's synthetic dollar remains the main stablecoin in the market and has a high correlation with market sentiment.

Periods where market capitalization and circulating supply increase signal moments of interest in allocation to digital assets.

On the other hand, moments of reduction in market capitalization indicate that institutional investors are withdrawing money from the crypto market.

It will be important to see a new wave of new money entering via stablecoins to have a clearer signal of an upward trend in Bitcoin and digital assets.

Written by caueconomy

Use Case: UTXO Band [1D ~ 1W] as a Trendline

Early May (Green Box):

A significant upward trend begins as the market price crosses above the realized price. This indicates a bullish market where Bitcoin is trading above the average cost basis of holders. The green box highlights the breakout above the realized price, which often signifies a buying opportunity.

Mid-June (Red Box):

A bearish reversal is indicated as the market price starts to drop while still being above the realized price. The red box highlights the peak before the decline starts.

Analysis:

Bullish Signals:

When the market price crosses and stays above the realized price, it typically suggests that market sentiment is positive and investors are in profit. This can attract more buying, pushing the price higher.

Bearish Signals:

Conversely, when the market price drops and heads towards the realized price, it indicates a potential market correction or bearish sentiment. Investors might be looking to sell or realize their profits, leading to further declines.

Conclusion:

Understanding these trends can help investors make informed decisions about buying or selling Bitcoin. The current decline towards the realized price could be a warning sign of further bearish momentum unless a reversal is observed.

Written by Amr Taha

The Open Network (TON) is currently one of the most popular blockchains. Various on-chain metrics are skyrocketing, highlighting the steady growth of The Open Network.

To provide some perspective, here are two charts:

1. TON Transfer Volume USD

This chart shows the total value of transactions conducted through the TON-Blockchain, measured in USD. The transfer volume ranges between $5.0B ~ $10.0B. For comparison, Bitcoin's average daily transfer volume is around $50.0B. This indicates that TON has already achieved between 10% Bitcoin's capacity, which is impressive for a coin that is only four years old.

2. Holder Count

This chart displays the number of on-chain token holders of TON. Currently, there are 32 million holders, up from 2.9 million a year ago. This represents a 10x increase in just one year, underscoring the growing popularity of the TON-Token.

Written by maartunn

#Ethereum Accumulation shows no signs of stopping even as the market tumbles 👀

#eth #ethetf #crypto

Written by elcryptotavo

Summary: After the Miner Position Index (MPI), which measures implied miner sell pressure, reaches its cycle low— likely below 1.4— the bull run resumes. This process can take many months.

Post-halving is a challenging time for miners, as their struggle to adapt to lower rewards can produce volatility in miner flows, negatively impacting prices on shorter timeframes, which can produce or aggravate mid-cycle slumps.

Once the MPI stabilizes post-halving and reaches its lowest historic range (below 1.4), it correlates with the end of the mid-cycle slump. This is typically followed by a gradual, then parabolic, second half of the bull cycle.

Of course its not an immediate up-only, and other factors play into the timing and duration.

Also consider that Bitcoin is in the midst of a prolonged consolidation period post-halving, and such large consolidations typically lead to significant expansions.

We also observe inflation data declining at the end of a rate cycle, coinciding with a U.S. election where, for the first time, crypto is an increasingly bullish topic, and U.S. ETFs for BTC and ETH are finally approved.

All of these factors suggest an incredible and rare confluence of bullish conditions.

Written by Papi

The MVRV indicator is a metric for assessing whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued. It is calculated by dividing the market value by the realized value.

The current level of the MVRV can provide important insights into the health of the market and possible BTC price movements.

When the MVRV is around 2 to 3 it indicates that the market is relatively healthy and the price of Bitcoin is in line with the value perceived by investors.

This level may suggest stability with less propensity to large price swings.

The impact of the current MVRV level on the price of Bitcoin depends on a number of additional factors, including how investors perceive the current price in relation to the historical post-Halving data.

In addition, global macroeconomic factors can influence the behavior of risk asset investors by triggering trends.

With the MVRV currently at a moderate value, close to the Distribution range, this could indicate that the market is in a neutral phase, with the potential for upward or downward movements depending on other macroeconomic factors and market news

Therefore, the current phase is Neutral with low volatility and a tendency for a big move to follow.

The trend preceding the price is upwards, which indicates a likelihood of following through on the bullish trend by reaching the extreme Distribution range.

Written by G a a h

1. Miner Capitulation

Lower Miner Revenues: Miner revenues have dropped by 55%, forcing miners to sell more Bitcoin to cover costs.

Increased Transfers to Exchanges: More Bitcoin is being moved from miners' wallets to exchanges, which can drive prices down, often indicating they are selling.

2. Lack of New USDT and USDC Issuance

The stablecoin market isn't seeing new issuances, meaning less new money is entering the crypto market. This can reduce liquidity and increase price volatility.

3. Outflows from ETF Funds

Significant withdrawals from major ETFs like Fidelity and Grayscale are creating selling pressure on Bitcoin. For example, Fidelity saw an outflow of over 81,000 BTC on June 17th.

🔹 Fear Among Short-Term Investors

Short-term investors (holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days) are selling off due to these pressures, fearing further price drops.

🔹 Key Points:

Outflows from ETFs and miners selling their Bitcoin are contributing to price drops.

Stablecoins like USDT and USDC aren't being issued as much, leading to less market liquidity.

Despite the current fear and selling, the average realized price for short-term holders, around $62,400, is a strong support level in bull markets.

🔹 Conclusion and Forecast for the Near Future:

Historical trends suggest that periods of sustained low miner revenues combined with a high hashrate can indicate a potential market bottom. This scenario often points towards possible stabilization or a market rebound. While current conditions are causing fear and selling among short-term investors, the strong support level of around $62,400 for short-term holders' average realized price could help stabilize prices in the near term. However, new inflows, especially from stablecoins, and reduced selling pressure from miners and ETFs will be critical for a sustainable recovery.

Written by IT Tech

Due to recent news involving the SEC, OI(Open Interest) in XRP has surged compared to other cryptocurrencies, which is reflected in the significant increase in open interest shown in the chart.

This trend suggests that as open interest rises alongside price, investors are opening more positions with the expectation of XRP's price increase. This heightened interest indicates that more trading activity is occurring with XRP.

However, in such a scenario, it is crucial to monitor market volatility closely and prioritize risk management. As open interest increases along with the price, this could reflect investor expectations and actions, but it could also bring about sudden market fluctuations, so caution is necessary.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

📌 Short-Term Holder: Let's examine the realized price (RP) of Short-Term Holders (STH) by reflecting their share of the realized cap. The cohort from 0 days to 6 months is included in this, accounting for 54.5% of the total cap.

📃 The 0 days to 1 week cohort represents 5.3% and is excluded from the data due to the minimal difference from the spot price. The 1 week to 6 months cohort represents 49.17%.

☑️ The weighted average value reflecting their share is $62.7k. This is an increase from $61.5k a month ago. The difference between STH-RP and the current price ($65.8k) is only 5%.

The recent 1-week BTC decline rate was about 6%. If it falls an additional -5%, it will meet the STH-RP.

Since STHs account for more than 50% of the market share, their RP is likely to act as a strong support/resistance zone.

The 3-month to 6-month cohort share has reached 20%. A significant number of STHs who bought during the March rally have not yet exited the market.

Considering the realized cap of STHs is greater than that of LTHs, it suggests significant turnover occurred between March and June.

Written by Yonsei_dent

In recent days, Toncoin (TON) has reached a new all-time high, highlighting an impressive growth. Since January 2024, the cryptocurrency has seen an increase of over 300%, with prices hitting new highs since March 2024.

However, despite this strong performance, the 90-day percentage return is declining, which may indicate a possible trend reversal in the coming weeks. The lack of new price momentum could trigger a sell-off, affecting TON's future trajectory.

🚨 Stay alert to market movements and consider the signs of a potential price correction.

Written by joaowedson

Currently in a downtrend as tether supply declines; 1d-1w is the break-even point for high prices is one of the selling pressures.

1m-3m supports the price. It is safe to assume that this is the area where new purchases are being made due to the large Stablecoins issue in mid-April.

However, the fact that it has been touched many times means that it is eating liquidity = it could be selling. It is also necessary to anticipate a future move out of this area.

Study-Realized Price:

Step 1: Understanding UTXO

Bitcoin transactions are based on the UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) model; UTXOs record the amount and timestamp of the last time bitcoins were moved.

Step 2: Calculate the acquisition price of each UTXO

To find out the acquisition price of each UTXO, check the price of the bitcoin when it was last moved. This will give you the price at which the bitcoin was last traded.

Step 3: Calculate the current value of each UTXO

Next, calculate the current value of each UTXO. This is calculated by multiplying the acquisition price of the UTXO by its quantity.

Step 4: Calculate the realised cap for the entire network

Sum the current value of all UTXOs to calculate the Realised Cap for the entire network.

Step 5: Calculate the Realised Price

Finally, divide the Realised Cap by the current total supply to obtain the Realised Price.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Indicators not to go against the flow.

Currently on a downward trend since the beginning of the month of June, but a slight decrease in the long term; may be considered an EU-related story.

Written by Crypto_Lion

This is a short-term trade indicator that can still be active: exchange Stablecoins Ratio USD just normalised by RSI; BTC reserve/ALL Stablecoins reserve with a higher number is likely to be a point of selling pressure and a lower number a point of buying pressure.

You'll know it when you see it, won't you?

Written by Crypto_Lion

The Open Network (TON) is currently one of the most popular blockchains. Various on-chain metrics are skyrocketing, highlighting the steady growth of The Open Network.

To provide some perspective, here are two charts:

1. TON Transfer Volume USD

This chart shows the total value of transactions conducted through the TON-Blockchain, measured in USD. The transfer volume ranges between $5.0B and $10.0B. For comparison, Bitcoin's average daily transfer volume is around $50.0B. This indicates that TON has already achieved between 10% and 20% of Bitcoin's capacity, which is impressive for a coin that is only four years old.

2. Holder Count

This chart displays the number of on-chain token holders of TON. Currently, there are 32 million holders, up from 2.9 million a year ago. This represents a 10x increase in just one year, underscoring the growing popularity of the TON-Token.

Written by maartunn

A central characteristic of BTC cycle tops is the dominance of coins with a holding period of less than 3 months.

Historically, this indicates that long-term holders (smart money) have already taken their profits, leaving the market under the control of speculators and new entrants, resulting in a more volatile market structure.

In previous cycles, the proportion of the realized cap held by this age group (<3m) exceeded 70% during market peaks. Currently, only about 35% of the realized cap is in the hands of these short-term holders, a level comparable to the early stages of previous bull markets.

Another crucial indicator at the tops of previous cycles is the realized profit level among short-term holders, measured by the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of this group, which exceeded 1.10 on a 14-day moving average. In the current cycle, the highest peak was 1.05 when Bitcoin reached its all-time high, now operating in a more neutral zone.

This structure suggests that we have not yet reached the peak euphoria of this cycle. The predominance of long-term holders in the market forms a more solid price support base. This robust structure and the relative scarcity of short-term holders make an immediate transition to a bear market less likely, indicating that there is still potential for a significant rally before the cycle top formation.

Written by Gustavo Faria

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are highly volatile markets, continually posing emotional and financial challenges for investors. Among these challenges are critical situations where the amount of profitable Bitcoin falls below the market's psychological breakpoint. This article explores the impact of profitable Bitcoins falling below the psychological breakpoint on investors and why this situation is considered a test of patience.

Profitable Bitcoins and the Psychological Breakpoint

When Bitcoin's price reaches a certain level, many investors make a profit. The amount of profitable Bitcoin indicates that investors have purchased Bitcoin at a price below the current market price. For instance, when the current price is 66.2K USD, having 16 million Bitcoins in profit means that this amount was bought at a lower price.

The psychological breakpoint is a critical level that influences investors' emotional and financial decisions. Price movements above or below this level significantly impact investors' market sentiment and decision-making processes. Bitcoin amounts below the psychological breakpoint can shake investors' confidence, leading them to be more cautious or trigger panic selling.

Test of Patience

The drop of profitable Bitcoins below the psychological breakpoint poses a serious test of patience for investors. In this scenario, investors face several tough questions:

Profit Realization: Will profitable investors prefer to realize their current gains, or will they wait for higher price levels?

Panic Selling: Can prices falling below the psychological breakpoint trigger panic selling among investors?

Future Expectations: How confident are investors about the market's potential to rise again?

These questions test investors' patience and market understanding. Prices falling below the psychological breakpoint increase investor stress levels and create uncertainty about the market's future.

Written by datascope

There has been an increase in Bitcoin spending. According to yesterday's data, some Bitcoins in the 1M-3M, 3M-6M, and 6M-12M age bands have been sent to exchanges.

40% of the sent Bitcoins are in the 3M-6M range, 20% are in the 6M-12M range, and the remaining portion is mixed.

These sent Bitcoins will create selling pressure. This analysis covers the short term, indicating that after a certain rise, the selling pressure will increase, and it looks like we will enter free fall again.

Written by XBTManager

What is being presented is purely a research project and not a recommendation for trading:

So far, I have experimented with various models to predict Bitcoin prices using on-chain data. I've utilized 373 features from the CryptoQuant platform spanning from 2012 to the present day. Since I employ a sliding window technique, classical machine learning models, which typically work with 2D data, are not suitable for my data. Instead, I use deep learning techniques based on tensors, which enable processing of 3D data.

Among the different models I've tried in recent months, the best results have been obtained with N-Beats and WaveNet models. The N-Beats model is developed in TensorFlow, and the model accuracy is MAPE: 31.9849. The performance of this model on train, validation, and test data is visualized in the image A. Based on this, the forecast of the N-Beats model for the next 30 days is shown in the chart B.

The second model that has provided acceptable results so far is the WaveNet model. The loss values for this model have been measured by Negative Log-Likelihood, with a loss value of 2.88. This model also used the same data as the previous model. The image C shows its performance in predicting prices for the past month. And the image D shows the Bitcoin price prediction for the next month based on the WaveNet model.

Based on the WaveNet model, with a confidence interval of 50%, the Bitcoin price is likely to fluctuate within the same range it has experienced over the past few months in the upcoming month.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Technical analysis is a very popular tool for trading, especially in the cryptocurrency scene. The price action of The Open Network (TON) has been catching attention lately, consistently breaking through all-time highs.

Using technical analysis, it’s easy to define support and resistance levels. These are typically points where the price sharply increases or decreases, creating strong levels when the price encounters them again. This method has proven effective in the past for various levels such as the $0.55-level, $1.9-level, $4.5-level, and $2.6-level.

And a few days ago, the price peaked at $7.3, but that level has now been broken and turned into support. As long as that level sticks around, this is a really bullish chart.

Written by maartunn

This ratio of the top 10 inflows to the total inflows of the exchange. High values indicate whales are using the exchanges in large amount.

Interestingly, this trend has been growing rapidly since Mar 24th, when the Bitcoin price broke the previous all-time high.

What happened in the past when the ratio increased?

Almost without exception, when the ratio increased, the price fell. Interestingly, in the last three months, when the ratio has increased rapidly, the price has not fallen significantly, nor has it crashed. My guess is that this hasn't happened because of the huge demand for spot ETFs.

The question is the direction of the price going forward, and with the exception of 2022, when the ratio increased in a bear market, price plunges occurred in 2018, 2019, and 2021 when the percentage peaked and declined.

So I don't think we're going to see a price crash based on historical patterns right now. But as the ratio peaks and declines, the likelihood of a crash will increase and then we'll need to rebalance accordingly.

Written by SignalQuant