1. Miner Capitulation
Lower Miner Revenues: Miner revenues have dropped by 55%, forcing miners to sell more Bitcoin to cover costs.
Increased Transfers to Exchanges: More Bitcoin is being moved from miners' wallets to exchanges, which can drive prices down, often indicating they are selling.
2. Lack of New USDT and USDC Issuance
The stablecoin market isn't seeing new issuances, meaning less new money is entering the crypto market. This can reduce liquidity and increase price volatility.
3. Outflows from ETF Funds
Significant withdrawals from major ETFs like Fidelity and Grayscale are creating selling pressure on Bitcoin. For example, Fidelity saw an outflow of over 81,000 BTC on June 17th.
🔹 Fear Among Short-Term Investors
Short-term investors (holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days) are selling off due to these pressures, fearing further price drops.
🔹 Key Points:
Outflows from ETFs and miners selling their Bitcoin are contributing to price drops.
Stablecoins like USDT and USDC aren't being issued as much, leading to less market liquidity.
Despite the current fear and selling, the average realized price for short-term holders, around $62,400, is a strong support level in bull markets.
🔹 Conclusion and Forecast for the Near Future:
Historical trends suggest that periods of sustained low miner revenues combined with a high hashrate can indicate a potential market bottom. This scenario often points towards possible stabilization or a market rebound. While current conditions are causing fear and selling among short-term investors, the strong support level of around $62,400 for short-term holders' average realized price could help stabilize prices in the near term. However, new inflows, especially from stablecoins, and reduced selling pressure from miners and ETFs will be critical for a sustainable recovery.
Written by IT Tech