In the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, investors face emotional and financial challenges when the amount of profitable Bitcoin falls below the market's psychological breakpoint. This situation is a significant test of patience for investors.

The amount of profitable Bitcoin refers to the quantity of Bitcoin purchased at a price below the current market price. For example, if the current price is 66.2K USD, having 16 million Bitcoins in profit means these were bought at a lower price.

The psychological breakpoint is a crucial level that affects investors' emotional and financial decisions. Price fluctuations above or below this level significantly impact market sentiment and decision-making processes. When Bitcoin amounts fall below this breakpoint, it can shake investors' confidence, leading to increased caution or panic selling.

Investors face tough questions in this scenario. Will they prefer to realize their current gains or wait for higher price levels? Can prices falling below the psychological breakpoint trigger panic selling? How confident are they about the market's potential to rise again? These questions test investors' patience and market understanding, increasing stress levels and creating uncertainty about the market's future.

在最近的發展中，比特幣支出大幅增加。根據昨天的數據，1M-3M、3M-6M、6M-12M年齡層的比特幣已經轉移到交易所。

數據顯示，轉移的比特幣中有40%來自3M-6M範圍，20%來自6M-12M範圍，其餘部分是混合的。比特幣湧入交易所可能會在短期內造成拋售壓力。

分析表明，在一定程度的上漲之後，拋售壓力預計會增加，可能導致自由落體。然而，值得注意的是，這是短期分析，長期前景仍然樂觀。

本報告由比特幣和區塊鏈新聞的領先來源 XBTManager 編制。

In a recent research project, various models were tested to predict Bitcoin prices using on-chain data from the CryptoQuant platform. The study utilized 373 features spanning from 2012 to the present day. Classical machine learning models were unsuitable due to the use of a sliding window technique, leading to the application of deep learning techniques based on tensors for 3D data processing.

The most promising results were obtained with the N-Beats and WaveNet models. The N-Beats model, developed in TensorFlow, achieved a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 31.9849. The model's performance on train, validation, and test data is demonstrated in image A, with the 30-day forecast shown in chart B.

The WaveNet model also showed acceptable results, with a Negative Log-Likelihood loss value of 2.88. Image C displays its performance in predicting past month prices, while image D presents the Bitcoin price prediction for the upcoming month. According to the WaveNet model, the Bitcoin price is likely to fluctuate within the same range it has experienced over the past few months, with a 50% confidence interval.

In the cryptocurrency trading scene, technical analysis continues to be a vital tool. Recently, The Open Network (TON) has been in the spotlight, consistently surpassing its all-time highs.

Through technical analysis, it's straightforward to identify support and resistance levels, which are points where the price significantly fluctuates. This approach has been successful in the past at various levels such as $0.55, $1.9, $4.5, and $2.6.

A few days ago, TON's price peaked at $7.3. This level has now been breached and transformed into a support level. As long as this level remains, the chart indicates a strong bullish trend. This optimistic market attitude is a positive sign for potential investors and traders.

在最近的加密貨幣趨勢分析中，觀察到自 3 月 24 日比特幣突破歷史高點以來，交易所前 10 名流入量與總流入量之比一直在快速增加。這表明鯨魚正在大量使用交易所。

從歷史上看，這一比率的上升往往會導致價格下跌。然而，在過去三個月裏，儘管這一比率迅速上升，但價格並沒有大幅下跌或崩盤。這很可能是由於現貨 ETF 的需求旺盛。

展望未來，價格的走向仍不確定。過去的模式表明，價格暴跌發生在 2018 年、2019 年和 2021 年，當時這一比率在熊市中上升，達到峯值，然後下降。

然而，基於這些歷史模式，價格崩盤似乎並不迫在眉睫。隨着比率達到峯值和下降，崩盤的可能性可能會增加，從而需要重新平衡。本分析強調了監測這些趨勢並相應調整策略的重要性。

在 ETF 獲批之前，比特幣持有者被觀察到拋售其持有的比特幣（藍框）。然而，在盤整階段，人們注意到行爲發生了變化，短期持有者轉變爲 3-6 個月的長期持有者，不斷積累而不出售（綠框）。

這一趨勢主要由鯨魚推動，可以作爲市場的有力支撐指標。這些主要參與者的持續積累反映了對比特幣未來的積極情緒，表明市場前景看好。

該分析強調了鏈上數據在瞭解市場動態和投資者行爲方面的重要性，爲加密領域的戰略決策提供了寶貴的見解。

作者：Mignolet。

In the realm of cryptocurrency, tracking whale movements is essential as they often dictate price trends. On-chain data provides the necessary tools for such tracking.

A case in point is TON. Between April-October 2022 and September-November 2023, TON's price hovered between $1 and $2, with high whale activity. During these times, over 40% of TON tokens transferred on the network originated from whales.

In the subsequent months, the price escalated and currently stands above $7. Keeping an eye on whale movements in the future could aid in predicting potential price peaks. The on-chain dashboard is a valuable tool for this purpose.

In a notable trend, Bitcoin reserves on Coinbase have been on a sharp decline since February 2024. The main catalyst behind this decrease is attributed to the rising demand for Spot ETFs. On February 18, 2024, Coinbase held 1,044,997 Bitcoins in reserve. However, this number has since dwindled to 878K, a significant reduction.

The introduction of Spot ETFs has evidently impacted Coinbase's reserves, demonstrating the shifting dynamics in the crypto market. This trend is expected to continue, especially considering the potential interest rate cut in September 2024.

The declining reserves on Coinbase, coupled with the potential interest rate cut, could lead to interesting developments in the crypto market. It is a testament to the evolving nature of the blockchain industry and the increasing demand for diversified crypto investment products. Optimistically, these changes could foster a more robust and dynamic crypto market.

Written by burakkesmeci.

In a recent analysis of the cryptocurrency market, TraderOasis has indicated a potential rise in price due to the approaching daily gap level. The level expected to act as support has been identified on the open interest indicator.

Despite a price fall after breaking the Coinbase Premium Index trendline, the indicator continued to rise, which is seen as a positive sign. The funding rates also show an increase in bullish trades, suggesting an upcoming uptrend following a final round of market manipulation.

Furthermore, the Estimated Leverage Ratio has seen a rise, indicating that traders are opening highly leveraged positions. A healthy market manipulation could potentially weed out these high-risk players.

Lastly, the decrease in selling pressure is evident from the increase in the total amount of coins transferred from the exchange. This is further supported by Coinbase's advanced data showing a positive and gradual increase. Overall, the market outlook appears optimistic.

In the current bull market, the transition between Bitcoin cycles is marked by a series of confluence factors, with a high profitability rate among smaller and new participants being a key market factor. The lure of profit maximization in bullish periods attracts many inexperienced investors, leading to relatively high unrealized profits.

However, the current Bitcoin growth curve remains modest compared to previous cycles. This does not suggest a stagnant future, but rather indicates that higher prices will be needed to see a riskier structure in the long-term cycle.

Furthermore, global demand for Bitcoin has not yet matched the price evolution seen in the last 12 months. While demand remains modest, a renewal is needed for continued growth. Given the market's optimistic outlook, it's only a matter of time before this occurs.

The Reserve Risk Indicators, integrating key metrics like VOCD, MVOCD, and Signal, offer a visualization of the confidence among long-term Bitcoin holders relative to its current price, thereby guiding investment decisions. The calculation of Reserve Risk involves steps such as Bitcoin Days Destroyed (BDD) and Adjusted Bitcoin Days Destroyed (ABDD), which normalize for Bitcoin's circulating supply.

Other metrics included in the chart are Value of Coin (Days) Destroyed (VOCD), calculated as VOCD = ∑ (Daily Bitcoin price * Adjusted BDD), and MVOCD, which is a median of VOCD to smooth the data. These metrics reflect accumulated confidence among holders over time, aiding in identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities.

Historical analysis reveals that low Reserve Risk periods have historically yielded outsized returns, emphasizing its importance in assessing market sentiment and investor behavior. Notably, when MVOCD exceeds Bitcoin's price, it signals resistance and the formation of local tops. The most recent bearish signal occurred from late March to early April 2024, and since then, Bitcoin has not reached new highs.

However, it's important to note that while this combination of metrics is effective, it is still possible to see new all-time highs, depending on how blockchain data adjusts according to long-term investors' behavior. Currently, the peak at $73,800 is defined as the historical maximum for 2024.

In the world of cryptocurrency, an inverse relationship has been observed between Bitcoin's price and miner reserves. As Bitcoin's price escalates, miner reserves tend to dwindle, and the opposite is true when the price drops.

A notable instance of this trend was evident around March 2024 when Bitcoin's price peaked, coinciding with a significant decline in miner reserves. This suggests that miners might be selling off their reserves to profit from the high prices.

This pattern is crucial for understanding how miner behavior, in terms of holding or selling Bitcoin, can influence market prices. Currently, the decrease in miner reserves indicates that the bull market is still in progress, providing a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market. This analysis can be instrumental in making informed decisions in the ever-evolving blockchain industry.

In a recent analysis, a short-term holder indicated that Bitcoin was carried at a loss when it fell below 1 during the last decline. However, optimism remains as the cryptocurrency has reached a potential reaction zone, if it stays above the MA34. This was observed during the panic selling period.

Bitcoin showed resilience with support at 66k, leading to a short-term 6% increase. However, selling pressure began at 1.01, suggesting that the price may continue to face stress within this range. Despite this, the best buying opportunities in a bullish trend are believed to be within the 0.95-0.90 range.

For intraday trading, it is advised to wait for a break below 1 and to hold out for the green area a little longer. This analysis underscores the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, but also its potential for high returns.

Written by XBTManager.

In a significant development, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have hit a four-year low. This trend indicates a growing confidence among investors in the cryptocurrency's long-term potential.

Simultaneously, funds have amassed over 1,000,000 BTC to support Bitcoin ETFs, marking a promising start to this venture. This accumulation of Bitcoin for ETFs further underscores the increasing institutional interest in the digital asset.

Despite high Federal Reserve rates, the anticipation of a substantial money supply bubble is growing. This scenario could potentially lead to a surge in Bitcoin's value, given its fixed supply.

In essence, the current market conditions suggest a continuous growth trajectory for Bitcoin. As the adage goes, "1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin", implying that the value of Bitcoin is intrinsic and not tied to any other asset. The unlimited money printing could lead to "Eternal Bitcoin Growth".

This optimistic outlook is based on the analysis of crypto projects, on-chain blockchain data, and market trends.

The True Market Mean Price (TMMP) indicator, coupled with the AVIV Ratio, offers a novel method for assessing the average price of digital assets, especially Bitcoin. Unlike the Realized Price, the TMMP takes into account market dynamics and investor behavior over time.

The TMMP is computed by dividing the difference between the Realized Market Cap and the Thermo Market Cap by the time-weighted active supply. This calculation provides an average market price for the digital asset, factoring in both historical transactions and the current circulating supply.

The AVIV Ratio further enhances the TMMP by juxtaposing the active market valuation with the realized valuation, thereby spotlighting significant discrepancies that could signal investment opportunities or risks. This metric, designed to offer a more comprehensive understanding of Bitcoin's market behavior, has demonstrated its value as a powerful tool for analysts and investors aiming to comprehend and predict price trends in the cryptocurrency market.

A key point to note: when the AVIV Ratio turns yellow or red, it indicates that Bitcoin is facing resistance, suggesting that investors are distributing their coins and the cycle's peak is approaching.

In a recent analysis of cryptocurrency trends, it was observed that Short-Term Holders (STHs) of Bitcoin (BTC) are moving their assets to exchanges, indicating panic selling during a price drop. The net profit/loss chart reveals that these STHs sold at a loss.

Simultaneously, long-term investors seized the opportunity to buy the dip. This is evidenced by the significant inflow of Bitcoin to accumulation addresses on June 11, suggesting a bullish sentiment among these investors.

In conclusion, it's worth considering the potential pitfalls of panic selling in a bull market. The strategy of selling during a dip with the intention to buy back at a lower price often proves ineffective. In many cases, holding onto assets may be the most beneficial strategy. This analysis serves as a reminder to investors to make informed decisions based on market trends and personal investment goals.

This update was provided by IT Tech.

In recent blockchain market analysis, short-term holders (STHs) of Bitcoin (BTC) are observed to be moving their assets to exchanges, indicating a panic sell-off in response to price drops. This behavior is reflected in the net profit/loss chart, showing STHs selling at a loss.

Contrary to this, long-term investors are capitalizing on the dip, with substantial Bitcoin inflows into accumulation addresses recorded on June 11. This suggests a bullish market sentiment among seasoned investors, who are buying while prices are low.

In conclusion, it is worth considering whether panic selling during a market dip is a viable strategy, especially in a bull market. The common notion of selling during a fall to buy back at a lower price often proves ineffective. In many cases, holding onto assets can be the best course of action. This analysis is brought to you by IT Tech.

In recent blockchain market analysis, Short-Term Holders (STHs) are observed to be moving their Bitcoin (BTC) to exchanges, indicating panic selling during price drops, often at a loss.

However, while STHs were selling, long-term investors seized the opportunity to buy the dip, as evidenced by the significant Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses on June 11.

This market behavior underscores the importance of considering the potential loss before selling Bitcoins, particularly in a bull market. The common notion of selling during a fall to buy back at a lower price often proves unfruitful. In many cases, inaction may be the best course.

This analysis, provided by IT Tech, encourages a more optimistic view of the market, suggesting that panic selling is not always the most profitable strategy.

In a significant development, Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, has experienced its largest Ethereum outflow of the year, exceeding $1 billion in value. This marks the 5th time in 2024 that over 150,000 Ethereum has been withdrawn in a single day.

These substantial transactions, ranging from $400 million to $1.1 billion each, are unlikely to be driven by individual investors. Instead, it's plausible that these are the actions of whales or undisclosed institutions.

While the exact motivation behind this Ethereum withdrawal remains uncertain, it's worth noting that similar activities were observed prior to the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs. The withdrawal of $1.17 billion on June 12, 2024, could be an indication of anticipation for a rise in Ethereum prices following the introduction of Spot ETFs.

While only time will confirm this hypothesis, such movements that diminish the circulating supply are generally expected to positively influence the price in the medium to long term, providing a promising outlook for the market.

In the wake of significant upcoming news events, particularly those related to the US Federal Reserve and CPI data, the blockchain market is poised for potential volatility. The Bitcoin price has been observed crossing below the UTXO age bands for Short-Term Holders (1d - 1w) and Medium-Term Holders (1w - 1m), indicating a possible increase in selling activity from these holders. This could be a response to market corrections or price volatility.

The relationship between the Bitcoin price and the 1-week to 1-month UTXO age band underscores the influence of short-term holders on the market. Intersections between the price and this band may suggest heightened market activity, with recent buyers potentially more inclined to sell.

These intersections can also serve as indicators of market sentiment. A drop below the UTXO age band may signal bearish sentiment and increased selling pressure, while a rise above it could suggest bullish sentiment and accumulation by recent buyers. These critical moments, often coinciding with price corrections, provide valuable insight into market dynamics and future price movements.