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Alphractal
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🧠基於應用於雙對數圖表的線性迴歸模型，我們得出的結論是，到 2033 年，比特幣跌破 108,000 美元的可能性極小。該圖表很複雜，X 軸和 Y 軸均以 10 爲底的對數規模，允許創建完美的趨勢線！
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Dormant Bitcoin Awakens: The Story of Lost Coins Returning to Circulation Since the beginning of 2024, with the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, the number of coins considered as Lost Coins — those inactive for years or never moved — has started to decrease. It was estimated that around 8 million BTC were inactive, but this number has dropped to 7.54 million, an impressive reduction of 460,000 BTC. This trend clearly reflects that Long-Term Holders are taking advantage of the bullish cycle to move their "forgotten" coins, which have been sitting in dormant wallets for years. When these coins become active again, they directly impact market supply and demand, increasing liquidity and influencing prices. The "Lost Coins vs Active Supply" metric measures the balance between inactive Bitcoins (lost or in dormant wallets) and those actively circulating. A high proportion of Lost Coins reduces the effective available supply, emphasizing the asset’s scarcity. As dormant coins return to the market, liquidity and value dynamics may shift, influencing long-term price stability. This metric provides valuable insights into how scarcity impacts Bitcoin’s value and how changes in active supply can shape the market’s future. Bitcoin holds stories. And when they resurface, the market reacts. Alphractal
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🚀 Whale vs Retail Dashboard: The new way to understand the movements of Whales and Retail traders in the crypto market! 🐋🛒 With our advanced dashboard, you can now easily compare the Long and Short positions of Whales and Retail traders. Here are the metrics we've implemented for better analysis: 📊 Available Metrics: Whale vs Retail Delta: Difference between the Long positions of Whales and Retail traders. Whale vs Retail Ratio: Ratio of Long positions between Whales and Retail traders. Whale Long/Short Ratio: Ratio of Whales’ Longs to Shorts. Retail Long/Short Ratio: Ratio of Retail traders’ Longs to Shorts. Whale Long Accounts: Proportion of Whales in Long positions. Retail Long Accounts: Proportion of Retail traders in Long positions. Whale Short Accounts: Proportion of Whales in Short positions. Retail Short Accounts: Proportion of Retail traders in Short positions. 🔍 In-Depth Analysis: With these data points, you can: Compare positions of whales and retail traders individually or relative to the market. Use Z-Score and RSI to identify entry and exit points for large players. Identify where Whales are more in Long positions than Retail traders, or when they are closing positions and entering Shorts. 💡 A unique and powerful way to analyze multiple altcoins at once, compare cryptos, and gain a sharper market sentiment! 🔥 Elevate your crypto analysis with the Whale vs Retail Dashboard and stay ahead of the game! 🚀 Alphractal
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The maximum pain for short-term shorts is around $98k USD. A moment when most highly leveraged traders will be adversely affected. Alphractal
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The sentiment on Twitter ("X") and crypto market news remain very positive. People are not posting negative content, which indicates that investors are not fearful, even with the recent market downturn, particularly Bitcoin's drop, fluctuating between $108k and $92k USD. The market typically turns pessimistic when public issues drive people to share negative posts, such as regulations, exchange problems, network failures, FUD about stablecoins and BTC, among other topics. When sentiment becomes highly negative, there is a high probability that Bitcoin forms price bottoms. This happens a few times a year, offering excellent buying opportunities. Alphractal
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Daily and Weekly Open Interest Delta Turn Positive for Bitcoin This indicates an increase in leveraged exposure on the last day of 2024. End-of-year speculation often creates numerous trading opportunities or marks a period of growing interest in long positions. Typically, when the Open Interest Delta turns positive and starts to grow, it is highly likely that Bitcoin's price will also rise. However, it is crucial to monitor whether Market Makers start unloading their positions, which could lead to further price declines. Alphractal
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