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定投(DCA)已成爲在各種時間範圍內實現顯著回報的有效策略。通過分析比特幣的平均價格與其短期實際價格(範圍從1周到1個月)之間的關係,投資者可以識別最佳購買機會。
這種方法與對更廣泛市場趨勢和情緒的全面理解相結合,提供了做出明智投資決策的關鍵洞察。數據強調了DCA在應對市場波動和利用有利條件方面的潛力,強化了對加密貨幣市場的積極展望。
免責聲明:包含來自第三方的見解。非財務建議。可能包含贊助內容。
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**Market Analysis: Bitcoin's Upward Trend Supported by MVRV Indicator** As we approach November, market participants are feeling a mix of anxiety and optimism. A traditional analytical approach, particularly in a market influenced by macroeconomic factors, can provide clarity. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator is a key tool in assessing Bitcoin's value. Currently, the MVRV stands at around 2, indicating the market's surface value is twice the on-chain estimated value. However, the focus should be on trend-based judgment rather than absolute values. Using the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV and the 4-year average, which typically reflects Bitcoin's cycle, we observe that the MVRV is above this average and has recently surpassed the 365-day average. This suggests that the upward trend remains intact. Historically, cycle peaks occur when MVRV levels reach between 3 and 3.6. Assuming the Realized Value (RV) remains constant, a 43-77% increase is necessary, translating to a Bitcoin target of $95k to $120k. As the market rises with new buying interest, the RV is likely to increase, potentially forming a peak above these levels, considering previous cycles. Despite significant gains over the past year, Bitcoin has only returned to the average level on the MVRV indicator, maintaining its upward momentum.
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On October 29th, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,620 on Binance, setting a record in open interest. However, Bitcoin has since retreated from the $70K level, indicating a potential short-term correction phase for both price and open interest. Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands data reveals that the average acquisition cost for participants who bought Bitcoin within the past week is between $69,549 and $70,733. Should the price correct further to the $63K-$66K range, we may observe profit-taking by buyers at lower levels and potential panic selling from recent high-level buyers. In the coming days, identifying the support level will be crucial for understanding the market's potential trajectory.
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Network difficulty and hashrate have reached new highs, signaling a significant shift in the blockchain landscape. As difficulty increases, the computational power required to process transactions also rises, leading to higher mining costs. This surge in difficulty is accompanied by Bitcoin's increasing value, which has intensified mining competition. While this competition underscores the robustness of the network, it also presents challenges. Without adequate transaction fees to offset these rising costs, miners may face sustainability issues. However, the overall market outlook remains optimistic, driven by Bitcoin's value appreciation and the resilience of the mining ecosystem.
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Coinbase Premium Index has reached a significant resistance line. Despite a recent price decline, the index continues to show upward momentum. Monitoring its reaction to this trend line is crucial for predicting future price movements. The open interest indicator's resistance line now acts as support, indicating positive market sentiment. This shift suggests a potential for price stabilization and growth. In my analysis, I have identified two key zones for potential price increases: the 0.5 range zone and the range low manipulation zone. These areas are critical for anticipating upward trends. Additionally, the funding rate indicator remains stable, and the previously bullish community is gradually turning bearish. This shift supports a bullish scenario, as it often precedes market corrections and subsequent growth.
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**TON Network Sees 670% Surge in USDT Holdings Over Six Months** The stablecoin market is experiencing rapid growth, presenting significant opportunities for emerging blockchain networks. Stablecoins, such as USDT, are increasingly used for various transactions globally, including cross-border and personal payments. Notably, around 10% of commercial transactions in South Korea utilize USDT. The TON blockchain has emerged as a strong contender in this space due to its low transaction costs and high speed. In May 2024, the TON blockchain held $130 million worth of USDT. Over the next six months, this amount surged by 670%, reaching $1.02 billion. This substantial increase highlights a growing preference for TON among users, positioning it as a notable player in the stablecoin ecosystem. One of the key drivers behind this growth is the decreasing transaction fees on the TON network. In June 2024, the median transaction fee was $0.061, which decreased to $0.035 by October. This reduction in fees has made TON an attractive option for users, significantly contributing to its rapid adoption. The supply of USDT has reached $120 billion, becoming a major force in the market. Looking ahead, it is expected that the USDT supply could expand to $200 billion during the next bull rally. This growth is likely to drive further demand for fast and low-cost blockchain networks like TON, leading to continued growth in the amount of USDT on the TON network. As the stablecoin ecosystem accelerates the adoption of blockchain technology, TON is well-positioned to expand its share in this space by offering robust infrastructure and competitive advantages.
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