Recent analysis indicates an imminent futures-led price increase in the cryptocurrency market. Since September, there has been a notable surge in buying pressure, particularly in the Binance futures market. This trend is evident in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting a broader market movement.

The data shows the strongest buying pressure since last September, reinforcing the analysis. This consistent pattern across major cryptocurrencies provides a solid foundation for a positive market outlook. Investors should closely monitor these developments, as they may signal significant opportunities in the near future.

TRON Network has been regaining popularity, as evidenced by its increasing share of total transactions across major altcoin blockchains. Recently, TRON has emerged as the leading alt-chain for transaction processing. On October 30th alone, it handled 43% of transactions across major alt-chains.

In October, TRON processed 230 million transactions, with a notable spike on October 24th, reaching 10.46 million transactions—approximately 25% above the 30-day moving average. This resurgence aligns with earlier activity in 2024, where TRON frequently led in transaction volume.

Despite a slight dip in dominance from August 25th to October 5th, TRON's transaction dominance is back on track. Given historical trends, it is likely to remain the most popular chain among altcoins.

Ethereum's recent price action has sparked renewed bullish sentiment in the market, as reflected in the ETH funding rates metric. This metric measures the aggression of buyers versus sellers in the futures market, where positive funding rates suggest bullish sentiment and negative rates indicate bearish sentiment.

Currently, the funding rates are in positive territory with a slight upward trend, indicating that futures traders have shifted towards a more optimistic outlook on Ethereum. However, despite this positive shift, funding rates are still lower than levels seen in March, when Ethereum was in the early stages of a strong bullish trend.

This disparity suggests that while there is growing bullish sentiment, it hasn’t yet reached the intensity required to fuel a significant breakout. For Ethereum to overcome key resistance levels and sustain an upward trajectory, a higher funding rate would signal increased buying interest and confidence from futures traders. Higher funding rates would not only confirm participants’ willingness to go long on Ethereum but would also add upward pressure on the price, potentially leading to a stronger and more sustained rally.

Bitcoin dominance is a key indicator in the cryptocurrency market, often signaling shifts in investor behavior. Historically, a decline in Bitcoin dominance has marked the beginning of bull markets, as investors diversify their portfolios into altcoins. This trend suggests increased capital flow into a broader range of cryptocurrencies, potentially sparking widespread market rallies.

Analyzing current data, we observe that Bitcoin dominance is decreasing, which could herald the onset of a new bull market. If historical patterns hold, the cryptocurrency market may be poised for significant growth as investors seek opportunities beyond Bitcoin.

Long-term holders (LTH) are showing significant accumulation behavior, aligning with notable shifts in Bitcoin’s trend. The LTH 30-Day Net Position Change, which measures the monthly net growth or decline of supply held by long-term holders, has recently shown a slight dip as BTC approaches its previous all-time high (ATH).

However, this negative net flow is approximately 2.5 times smaller than the reduction observed at the prior ATH level. This indicates a more restrained sell-off, suggesting that LTHs are positioning themselves for a potential short-term rally. The moderated selling behavior reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s market trajectory.

MicroStrategy has announced a $42 billion capital plan, with $21 billion specifically allocated for acquiring Bitcoin. This significant move reflects the company's strong confidence in the future of cryptocurrency.

To date, MicroStrategy has invested $9.89 billion to acquire 252,200 BTC. With this new plan, they aim to more than double their Bitcoin holdings, bringing their total investment to approximately $30 billion.

The execution of this plan is set over the next three years, indicating a long-term strategic approach. This development underscores a bullish outlook on Bitcoin's potential and market growth.

The recent trend in the cryptocurrency market indicates a bullish sentiment as Bitcoin investors increasingly engage in leveraged bets using derivatives. This shift is evidenced by the growing deposits of Bitcoin into futures exchanges rather than spot exchanges, suggesting that investors are more inclined towards speculative trading rather than immediate selling.

The movement of Bitcoin into futures exchanges highlights a strategic approach by investors to maximize potential gains through leverage. This behavior underscores a positive market outlook, as it reflects confidence in Bitcoin's future price appreciation.

Overall, the current market dynamics suggest a continuation of the bull market, driven by investor optimism and strategic leveraging in the derivatives market.

**TON Price Heat Map Analysis: A Bullish Outlook**

The TON Price Heat Map, which calculates the one-year moving average and its multipliers (2x, 3x, etc.), provides valuable insights into long-term price trends. Historical data indicates that TON's price has only dipped below the one-year moving average during bear markets. Given the current bull cycle, this support level offers a favorable risk/reward profile for long-term investments.

If the current price reaches the Sigma8 level, it could present substantial profit margins for investors. TON’s price movements suggest a decrease in volatility, placing the price in a relatively "cool" zone. This environment is potentially favorable for investors employing a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy, as it presents lower risk.

In conclusion, TON’s price may not remain at the one-year moving average levels for long. This zone can be considered an attractive opportunity for accumulating TON. The TON Price Heat Map is a useful tool for evaluating the risk/reward ratio, reinforcing a bullish outlook on the asset.

Demand for BTC appears to be on the rise once again. We're observing a noticeable difference between the initial surge earlier this year and the range that settled in over the following months, during which demand even dropped to negative levels.

Looking at current demand levels, it aligns with those seen back in February, which could indicate the beginning of a new upward trend. This resurgence in demand suggests a positive market sentiment and potential growth in the near future. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these developments as they could signal a significant shift in the market dynamics for Bitcoin.

Short-term Holder SOPR Metric Indicates Potential Bitcoin Rally

The short-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) metric, which measures the profitability of coins held between 1 hour and 155 days, currently stands at 1.017%. This value suggests that short-term holders are realizing some profits but have not yet reached an overheated state. Historically, a SOPR value of 1.03% has been considered overheated, indicating there is still room for upward movement.

Despite Bitcoin's recent peak at $70k, the current SOPR value implies that the market remains stable. Should Bitcoin's price continue to rise and the SOPR metric spike further, a full-blown rally could ensue. However, the upcoming US election poses a significant risk factor that could impact asset prices, including cryptocurrencies. Investors should remain vigilant and responsive to these developments.

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSRO), which evaluates the ratio of Bitcoin's market cap to that of stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, BUSD, TUSD, USDP, GUSD, DAI, and SAI, provides critical insights into market demand.

Since Bitcoin's low in November 2022, the 90-day and 200-day SSRO have mirrored those lows during Q3 2024. However, October has demonstrated a significant recovery, with Bitcoin reaching $70K and potentially retesting its all-time high from Q1 2024.

The SSRO's current readings show high demand, surpassing the positive 2-point mark. If this trend continues and favorable macroeconomic and election data emerge in early November, a move above the positive 3-point mark is plausible, echoing similar movements in January 2023, October 2023, and February 2024.

**Bitcoin Returns to the United States: Market Optimism Grows**

Recent data indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) has made a significant return to the United States, following a notable address update. This development has been accompanied by a rise in BTC prices and trading volumes, signaling a positive shift in market sentiment.

The increase in BTC volume suggests heightened investor interest and confidence in the cryptocurrency market. This trend is likely to continue as more institutional and retail investors recognize the potential of blockchain technology and digital assets.

Overall, the current market conditions reflect a promising outlook for BTC and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.

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The Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price, representing the average price at which each Bitcoin last moved, serves as a crucial metric for understanding market trends. By reflecting the value of Bitcoin based on the last transaction price of each unspent Bitcoin, it provides insights into whether Bitcoin is trading above or below its average realized price.

When short-term Bitcoin UTXO Realized Prices (e.g., 1 week and 1 month) exceed longer-term UTXO Realized Prices (e.g., 1-3 months and 3-6 months), it often signals the onset of significant price increases. This crossover indicates rising momentum, as newer transactions occur at higher prices than in the recent past, suggesting potential bullish sentiment. If this crossover is approached again, midterm Bitcoin prices may rise.

Recent analysis indicates that purchasing Bitcoin during a Hash Ribbons signal has historically aligned with strong long-term returns. The Hash Ribbons indicator, which evaluates the health of the Bitcoin mining ecosystem by monitoring shifts in hash rate, has recently issued another signal, following a major one this past summer.

The Hash Ribbons have proven to be a reliable metric over time, with only one significant miss attributed to the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This historical accuracy suggests that another Bitcoin rally could potentially occur over the mid-term, providing a positive outlook for investors.

Metric by Maartunn
Written by Darkfost

**Bitcoin Miners' Actions Indicate Potential Price Rally**

Miners' behavior within the Bitcoin network is a critical factor influencing price volatility. As the halving approaches, miners often sell Bitcoin and halt some operations to cover costs. When prices stagnate, they tend to accumulate or hold Bitcoin. During the latter part of a bull run, they gradually release Bitcoin into the market, signaling the preparation for the next cycle.

Currently, the Miner Position Index (MPI) shows miners are holding Bitcoin, with no significant movements toward exchanges. Historically, a rebound in MPI from a low has led to substantial price increases. Additionally, block rewards per block are rebounding, indicating increased transaction activity, which often precedes price hikes.

Bitcoin's price is currently showing favorable movement for an uptrend, suggesting potential new highs by the end of this year or next. Patience is key during this period.

The percentage of Bitcoin held by US entities, including exchanges, banks, and funds, has started to grow again. This trend marks a significant shift from earlier this year when a decrease in US-held Bitcoin coincided with a sustained sideways movement in the cryptocurrency's price since March. Notably, the strong bull run in late 2023 was initiated by an increase in the percentage of Bitcoin held by these US entities. This correlation suggests that US institutional involvement plays a crucial role in Bitcoin's market dynamics, offering a positive outlook for future price movements.

**Binance Whales Influence Bitcoin Market Amid Rising U.S. ETF Demand**

Two weeks ago, on October 14th, Binance whales began significantly influencing the market during Asian trading hours. This intervention has continued, as evidenced by the ongoing decline in CPG data alongside price increases—a clear indicator of Binance whales' activity.

Contrary to a simplistic interpretation of declining U.S. demand, the past two weeks have seen a surge in demand for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a net inflow of approximately 47,000 Bitcoin. The movement in CPG data, closely tied to ETF demand, shows a negative premium, driven by Binance whales rather than a decline in U.S. demand.

In summary, the current Bitcoin price is being driven by Binance whales, supported by sustained inflows of U.S. capital.

**Coinbase Premium Index Hits Lowest Point of the Year at -0.20**

Last Friday, the Coinbase Premium Index reached its lowest point of the year at -0.20, indicating significant selling pressure among U.S. investors. This surpasses the previous low of -0.13 during the Japanese carry trade crisis on August 5, 2024. The decline suggests heightened uncertainty among retail investors, possibly linked to upcoming elections.

Conversely, Bitcoin Spot ETFs experienced their highest inflow of the past week, totaling $402 million. Institutional investors, including Emory University's $15 million investment, continue to show strong confidence in the market.

Currently, the Coinbase Premium Index stands at -0.11, with a 14-day moving average of -0.05. If the Index can settle above this average, it may signal a return of U.S. retail investors to the buying side, indicating potential market recovery.

U.S. institutional investors and whales are currently selling ETH, as indicated by the negative ETH Coinbase Premium Index, which has reached -2. This bearish sentiment is corroborated by data showing a mix of accumulation and heavy selling among both whales and retail investors.

In the short term, the negative index value suggests a bearish outlook for ETH. However, for long-term investors, this dip could present a strategic buying opportunity. Historically, periods of low sentiment have often provided savvy investors with optimal entry points for potential future gains.

Overall, while the short-term outlook is bearish, the long-term perspective remains optimistic for ETH.

Short Term Holder Metric Indicates Positive Market Sentiment

The Short Term Holder (STH) metric, a key indicator for assessing the profit or loss ratio of short-term investors or currencies traded for less than 155 days, shows promising signs for the market. Historically, the average exit peak ratio has been concentrated at 1.23, indicating critical areas where the market stabilizes after corrections, allowing STHs to exit with approximately 10% profit.

Currently, the market is at a balance point of 1, meaning the average currency spent has a neutral profit of 1%. This stability suggests that retailers are comfortable with the current corrections and are holding their assets in anticipation of more significant future profits. The lack of sharp rebounds below level 1 further supports this, indicating strong support during this phase of exiting a long correction.

Additionally, only 2.3% of STHs are currently in loss, reinforcing a positive shift in market sentiment and price polarity. This data suggests a lack of price resistance and a growing confidence among investors, pointing to a potentially optimistic outlook for the market.