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過去一週,比特幣鯨魚活動愈演愈烈,獲利和虧損均大幅增加。從歷史上看,虧損往往是出於恐懼,而獲利回吐通常會導致價格下跌。最近鯨魚獲利激增表明,比特幣可能面臨短期下跌。不過,整體市場情緒依然樂觀,因爲這些活動也可能預示着健康的市場調整,爲未來的增長和穩定鋪平道路。
免責聲明:包含來自第三方的見解。非財務建議。可能包含贊助內容。
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Recent analysis reveals a promising opportunity for altcoin investors, as the market enters a favorable buying zone. This is determined by comparing the 30-day average trading volume of altcoin-stablecoin pairs to their annual average. Currently, the 30-day moving average has dipped below the yearly average, indicating a potential entry point for investors. Historically, such phases have provided lucrative opportunities for implementing a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. The last occurrence of this pattern was in September 2023, marking the end of the bear market. These periods can extend over several weeks or months, offering strategic advantages for mid-term investors.
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Bitcoin's recent price decline from $109K to approximately $80K has not deterred the network's growth, as both the hashrate and mining difficulty have reached unprecedented levels. This increase in difficulty, while raising mining costs, underscores Bitcoin's robust fundamentals, particularly its mining power and network security. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's potential market cap, based on current hashrate metrics, could soar to $5 trillion. Given its present market cap of $1.6 trillion, the potential for growth remains substantial, indicating a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency.
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Bitcoin's recent ~15% drawdown from ~$88,000 to ~$74,400 highlights a deeper narrative beyond price fluctuations. On-chain data reveals significant shifts in market behavior, particularly among Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH). On April 7th, STHs realized $10.1 billion in losses, while LTHs increased their holdings by $9.7 billion, indicating a transfer from weak to strong hands. This trend continued on April 8th, with STH losses slowing and LTHs accumulating further. Such structural divergence suggests a potential market bottoming phase, as STHs reduce supply and LTHs strengthen their positions, signaling optimism for long-term recovery.
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Ethereum's current market dynamics reveal a challenging landscape for holders, with the average cost basis at $2.2K indicating widespread unrealized losses. However, optimism persists as the next significant support level lies at $1.29K, aligning with the cost basis of whales holding over 100K Ethereum. Historical resilience was demonstrated during the Luna crisis on June 18, 2022, when Ethereum reached a low of $870 but exhibited recovery potential. This suggests that despite current pressures, Ethereum's market structure retains the capacity for future rebounds, supported by strategic whale positions.
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Bitcoin's realized price analysis, focusing on UTXO age bands, offers insights into market trends. The data highlights the behavior of short-term holders who acquired Bitcoin between 1 week to 3 months ago. Historically, upward trends in these bands have signaled the onset of bull markets, as seen in late 2020 and early 2024. Conversely, at market peaks like April 2021 and March 2025, the realized price often flattens, indicating profit-taking by short-term holders. Currently, the downward curve in the 1m–3m cohort's realized price suggests potential market cooling, pointing to possible consolidation after Bitcoin's peak above $100K.
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