SignalPlus Vol Commentary (22 Aug 2024)

SignalPlus · 2024-08-22T12:40:54.000Z

For Powell, the current Federal Reserve is in the final stages of battling inflation, with the U.S. election looming in the background, aiming for a soft landing by reducing inflation without triggering a recession. The coming months will be critical, and Powell is expected to proceed with particular caution. According to a report by Jin10, Northern Trust’s Chief Economist Carl Tannenbaum believes Powell will convey another message to investors, advising them ‘not to overreact to the data’. Earlier this month, the non-farm payroll report rattled global financial markets. Tannenbaum noted, ‘The reaction to the employment report was one of the worst market overreactions I’ve seen in a long time, with the market rushing to embrace the narrative of an economic recession based on just one data point. They were simply looking for a narrative and then created one around an employment figure’. For Powell, the current Federal Reserve is in the final stages of battling inflation, with the U.S. election looming in the background, aiming for a soft landing by reducing inflation without triggering a recession. The coming months will be critical, and Powell is expected to proceed with particular caution. Source: TradingView Returning to digital currencies, BTC formed a V-shaped pattern intraday, with liquidity temporarily collapsing at 3 AM, leading to a sharp dip below 60,000. In the options market, implied volatility (IV) for August 25th has formed a local peak on the curve due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming global central bank meeting. However, since most economists expect Powell to take a relatively cautious approach, not much risk premium has been priced in. Source: Deribit (As of 22 AUG 16:00 UTC+8) Source: SignalPlus Over the past two trading days, demand for puts expiring in September and late October has steadily increased, particularly around the 55,000 and 56,000 support levels, causing the local skew to tilt towards the bearish side. In August, there has been widespread selling of out-of-the-money puts, which may reflect a positive market response to the recent price rise and the significant reversion of the front-end risk reversal (RR). Source: SignalPlus，BTC Skew and Trading Distribution , which may reflect a positive market response to the recent price rise and the significant reversion of the front-end risk reversal (RR). Source: SignalPlus，BTC Skew and Trading Distribution

對於鮑威爾來說，當前美聯儲正處於抗擊通脹的最後階段，美國大選迫在眉睫，其目標是在不引發衰退的情況下降低通脹，實現經濟軟着陸。未來幾個月將是關鍵時期，預計鮑威爾將特別謹慎行事。
據 Jin10 報道，Northern Trust 首席經濟學家 Carl Tannenbaum 認爲鮑威爾將向投資者傳達另一個信息，建議他們“不要對數據反應過度”。本月早些時候，非農就業報告震驚了全球金融市場。Tannenbaum 指出，“對就業報告的反應是我很長時間以來見過的最嚴重的市場過度反應之一，市場急於接受僅基於一個數據點的經濟衰退敘述。他們只是在尋找一個敘述，然後圍繞就業數據創造了一個敘述”。
對於鮑威爾來說，當前美聯儲正處於抗擊通脹的最後階段，美國大選迫在眉睫，其目標是在不引發衰退的情況下降低通脹，實現經濟軟着陸。未來幾個月將是關鍵時期，預計鮑威爾將特別謹慎行事。
資料來源：TradingView
回到數字貨幣，BTC 盤中形成 V 型形態，凌晨 3 點流動性暫時崩潰，導致跌破 60,000。在期權市場，由於即將舉行的全球央行會議存在不確定性，8 月 25 日的隱含波動率 (IV) 在曲線上形成局部峯值。然而，由於大多數經濟學家預計鮑威爾將採取相對謹慎的態度，因此風險溢價並未被計入太多。
數據來源：Deribit（截至 8 月 22 日 16:00 UTC+8）
來源：SignalPlus
過去兩個交易日，9 月和 10 月底到期的看跌期權需求穩步上升，特別是在 55,000 和 56,000 支撐位附近，導致局部偏向看跌。8 月份，價外看跌期權普遍出現拋售，這可能反映了市場對近期價格上漲和前端風險逆轉 (RR) 顯著迴歸的積極反應。
來源：SignalPlus，BTC Skew 和交易分佈

這可能反映了市場對近期價格上漲的積極反應以及前端風險逆轉（RR）的顯著迴歸。
來源：SignalPlus，BTC Skew 和交易分佈

創作者的更多內容

實時新聞

創作者的更多內容

實時新聞

熱門文章