作者：Crypto, Distilled

编译：深潮TechFlow

加密货币 - 顶部是否已经出现？

这是在加密货币社区 (CT) 中的禁忌问题。

然而，忽视它可能代价高昂（这也是为什么大多数人会经历完整的涨跌周期）。

“现实是，当你不再相信它时，它并不会消失。” - P. Dick

以下是为什么顶部可能已经出现以及如何在这种情况下仍然能够繁荣的原因。

市场结构的破坏：

第一个主要关注点是最近 $BTC 失去了4个月的区间。

虽然长期趋势依然完好，但中期趋势已经转为看跌。

Andrew Kang 认为这与2021年5月的价格走势相似。

（感谢 @Rewkang）

潜在的双顶？

伴随着关键支撑位的丧失，周线图上的双顶形态难以忽视。

虽然我不是技术分析专家，但这看起来像经典的自满肩形态（Complacency Shoulder）。

“现货市场很舒适，加密货币是安全的，因为流动性会再次上升” = 共识观点

从“忧虑之墙”到“希望之河”：

牛市在攀登“忧虑之墙”；熊市则滑落“希望之河”。

这种转变是逐步发生的，通常在事后才能确认顶部。

要评估这种转变，可以分析以下几点：

对正面/负面新闻的价格反应

闲置资本的心理

市场对新闻的反应：

在疲软的市场中，好消息被置若罔闻，而坏消息则引起巨大的恐惧。

最近的例子：

好消息：特朗普谈论比特币 ($BTC) 作为企业资产 + 以太坊 ($ETH) ETF 即将推出。

坏消息：Mt. Gox/德国抛售比特币 ($BTC)

（感谢 @CryptoDonAlt）

闲置资本与抄底：

散户在没有明确催化剂的情况下盲目抄底是一个值得关注的问题。

随着自满和否认转变为恐慌，市场沿着这条希望之河滑下。

（感谢 T. Livingston）

2022年的技术性反弹：

2022年市场经历了几次技术性反弹，但没有趋势逆转。

理想情况下，你希望看到前方有重大催化剂，同时闲置资本犹豫是否抄底。

相反的情况则预示着危险，正如最近以太坊 ($ETH) ETF 的价格行动所显示的那样。

比特币超级周期论：

许多山寨币可能已经见顶，但比特币 ($BTC) 可能会进入超级周期。

尽管全球流动性可能激增，但这挑战了山寨币是最快马匹的假设。

一个范式转变可能正在进行，其影响滞后。

（感谢 @Rewkang）

比特币与标普500的分歧：

比特币 ($BTC) 与股票的相关性减弱（4.5年来最低）可能是一个令人担忧的问题。

大量供应过剩（德国/美国等）可能会推动这种脱钩达到极限。

（感谢 @WClementeIII）

类似2019年：

比特币 ($BTC) 与标普500 ($SPX) 的分歧类似于2019年，当时比特币在6月达到顶峰。

花了12个月以上才创下新高。

（感谢 @intocryptoverse）

大型 AI 公司风头盖过加密货币：

也许市场见顶并不是因为加密货币不好，而是因为AI更具吸引力。

我们正在看到历史上最单薄的股票反弹（由大型AI公司主导）。

尽管获取比特币 ($BTC) 的途径前所未有地好，但散户需求增长缓慢。为什么？

（感谢 @TXMCtrades）

最大狂热是否已经过去？

最大的狂热可能已经过去。这一周期可能只是昙花一现。

证据：memecoin在2024年第一季度达到顶峰，此后呈下降趋势。

比特币 ($BTC) 在2024年第一季度达到顶峰（巧合吗？）

（感谢 @ki_young_ju）

Memecoin超级周期 = 顶部信号

“memecoin 超级周期”的概念可能是最终的顶部信号。

2021年也出现了类似的顶部信号，当时有人预测比特币 ($BTC) 会进入超级周期（$250k+ $BTC）。

由于这一周期的幻灭感较少，也许我们更快地进入了 memecoin 狂热。

Memecoin 领域的主导地位：

首次，memecoin 已成为 CoinMarketCap (CMC) 上最受欢迎的类别。

没有实际应用推动有机需求，山寨币能在投机泡沫中运行多久？

（感谢 @coinmarketcap）

通过对冲获利：

即使我们可能已经达到顶部，也不意味着所有希望都破灭了。

通过做空弱势山寨币来对冲强势山寨币可能会非常有利可图。

这使你能够从下跌中获利，同时仍然保持市场参与。

（感谢 @GiganticRebirth）

比特币主导地位上升：

在风险规避的市场中，投资者卖出山寨币换取比特币 ($BTC) 往往会增加比特币的主导地位。

做空弱势的 ALT/BTC 交易对对来捕捉这一趋势可能会非常有利可图。

@intocryptoverse 认为比特币主导地位 ($BTC.D) 到2024年第四季度可能达到60%。

从风投贪婪中获利：

要识别那些供应过剩且风投未实现利润巨大的币种。

如果四年周期被打破怎么办？

想象一下，如果2024年3月只是接下来6-12个月的峰值？

这还算是周期顶部吗？

鉴于这一周期迄今为止的上涨有限，预期下跌也会较少是合理的。

因为短周期 + 低波动性。

宏观顶部尚未出现？

尽管有一些潜在信号，但周期顶部可能还没到（个人观点，仅供参考）。

流动性是最关键的因素，有强有力的证据表明峰值可能会在2025年出现。

虽然当前流动性较低，但我们似乎正处于重大转变的边缘

（感谢 @zerohedge）

神秘的艺术家布莱克先生以其神秘的街头艺术和比特币区块链上雄心勃勃的 21,000 件序号收藏而闻名，他声称一旦收藏品完全铸造完毕，弥赛亚时代就会被揭示。然而，最近的事态发展表明，布莱克先生可能面临社交媒体平台 X（以前称为 Twitter）的审查。

布莱克先生在耶路撒冷、罗马、墨西哥城、巴黎和特拉维夫等城市的神秘海报和贴纸引起了全球关注。他承诺铸造自己的收藏将迎来一个普遍和平与启蒙的新时代，这项承诺既激起了人们的兴奋，也引发了怀疑。

深潮 TechFlow 消息，据 Coin98 Analytics 报告，Solana 在 Q2 2024 收入超 2600 万美元，同比增长 42 倍。SOL 交易总量达 2920 亿美元，同比增加近 7 倍。

Q2 2024 关键数据：

交易量超 153 亿笔

TVL 达 34 亿美元

新创建 NFT 超 9800 万个

USDC 市值达 21.5 亿美元，占比约 70%

Solana’s optimistic price forecast suggests a potential surge to $180, bolstered by its increasing DeFi TVL. Conversely, Jupiter (JUP) faces significant challenges at a pivotal support level of $0.7800, contending with intense selling pressure. Amid these market movements, BlockDAG (BDAG) shines brightly with its stellar $56.4 million presale achievement, exhibiting strong investor confidence. With a remarkable 1300% price increase across its 19 presale batches, BlockDAG positions itself as a highly attractive investment. Furthermore, its X100 miner is revolutionizing crypto mining, offering investors a stable and lucrative alternative.

Solana Price Prospects: Community Strength in Numbers

Solana demonstrates resilience amidst broader market fluctuations. Currently, its price has risen to $137, marking a 2% increase in just 24 hours. The total value locked (TVL) within Solana’s ecosystem has reached $4.22 billion, highlighting growing engagement and trust among its community. With a market cap also up by 2% at $63 billion, Solana’s prospects look promising.

The presence of a bullish ‘falling wedge’ pattern on the charts suggests a potential rebound to around $180. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 40, support the potential for an upward trend if investor interest continues.

Jupiter’s Market Struggles: Critical Levels to Watch

Jupiter (JUP) is currently treading water at the crucial $0.7800 support zone, a battleground for buyers and sellers alike. Recent heavy selling has pushed its price below key moving averages, indicating bearish market sentiment.

The monthly return ratio for JUP stands at -33.20%, with a year-to-date return of 2500.30%. Indicators such as the RSI and the MACD signal possible further declines unless the $0.7700 support holds firm. Should a rebound occur, JUP could aim for resistance levels at $0.8800 and $0.9300.

BlockDAG’s Presale Triumph and X100 Miner’s Efficiency

In the midst of Solana and Jupiter’s volatile movements, BlockDAG stands as a solid investment choice. Its presale has attracted massive attention, amassing $56.4 million and selling over 12 billion BDAG coins. Currently, the BDAG coin is priced at $0.014 in its 19th batch, up 1300% from its initial $0.001, with projections suggesting it could hit $0.05 by Batch 45, potentially yielding a 30,000x ROI. This rapid growth highlights the immense confidence and backing from early investors.

Additionally, BlockDAG’s X100 miner, featuring state-of-the-art ASIC technology, boasts a powerful 2 TH/s hash rate and efficient 1800W power consumption. It enables miners to earn up to 2,000 BDAG daily, optimizing their mining operations and maximizing returns. The X100 also supports mining other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Kaspa, making it a versatile tool for both novice and expert miners due to its advanced ethernet connectivity and superior heat dissipation.

Final Analysis

While Solana shows signs of a bullish future and Jupiter wrestles with crucial support levels, BlockDAG offers a robust alternative for those seeking stability and substantial returns. The successful $56.4 million presale, advanced X100 miner, and impressive ROI forecasts position BlockDAG as an exciting investment opportunity. Its strong market presence and rapid growth underscore its potential to transform the cryptocurrency landscape.

Join BlockDAG Presale Now:

Website: https://blockdag.network

Presale: https://purchase.blockdag.network

Telegram: https://t.me/blockDAGnetworkOfficial

Discord: https://discord.gg/Q7BxghMVyu

Disclaimer: TheNewsCrypto does not endorse any content on this page. The content depicted in this press release does not represent any investment advice. TheNewsCrypto recommend our readers to make decisions based on their own research. TheNewsCrypto is not accountable for any damage or loss related to content, products, or services stated in this press release.

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