Bitcoin Price Faces Crucial Test: Here’s What At Stake This Week

Crypto Breaking · 2024-06-17T07:46:44.000Z

As Bitcoin enters a pivotal week, market participants are closely monitoring several key indicators and events that could determine its near-term trajectory. Renowned crypto analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) has provided an in-depth analysis, highlighting the critical factors at play. Weekly Bitcoin Preview Ted’s analysis begins by contextualizing the broader macroeconomic environment. Last week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data were optimistic for risk assets, highlighting a continued disinflationary trend. “Both CPI and PPI data were optimistic for risk assets, with each showing that the disinflationary trend remains,” Ted noted. However, he cautioned that the Federal Reserve’s communication suggested that the market should not be overly enthusiastic about imminent rate cuts. Related Reading The focal point for this week is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and its revised dot plot. In March, the dot plot indicated potential rate cuts of 2-3 times in 2024. However, the June dot plot revision suggests a more conservative outlook, indicating only 1-2 cuts. Ted explained, “The March dot plot indicated cutting rates 2-3 times in 2024, but June’s dot plot suggests only 1-2 cuts should be expected.” This alignment between the Fed’s projections and market expectations likely provides the central bank with greater flexibility in future communications about interest rates. For Bitcoin, maintaining the $66,000 support level is crucial. Ted emphasized the importance of this threshold, stating, “It’s critical that Bitcoin maintains its support at $66,000. If broken, sellers could take a stronghold on the market and force quick liquidations out of the bulls.” This support level is seen as a critical threshold, with potential implications for broader market sentiment. The implied weekly ranges for Bitcoin and Ethereum reflect the cautious optimism among traders. Bitcoin is expected to trade between $65,100 and $74,100, while Ethereum is projected to fluctuate between $3,388 and $4,025. Ted highlighted, “This week is crucial for maintaining BTC’s (and by extension, the broader crypto market’s) short-term trend.” Related Reading Ted also pointed out the performance of US tech stocks, particularly the NASDAQ, which has recently hit new all-time highs. “US tech stocks are certainly feeling the disinflationary vibes, with the NASDAQ breaking out to new all-time highs in anticipation of easier central bank policy to come,” he noted. This disconnect shows that something could be cooking for Bitcoin. Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin is another area of focus. Ted suggested that Ethereum could begin to “play catch up versus Bitcoin,” particularly with the anticipated launch of spot Ethereum ETFs on Wall Street. This potential for Ethereum to close the performance gap with Bitcoin is an important dynamic to monitor in the coming days. Additionally, rate decisions from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are on the radar. While no rate cuts are expected from these central banks, their decisions will be scrutinized for any indications of future monetary policy shifts. Ted mentioned, “It’s not expected that the Australian or Swiss Central Banks cut rates at this week’s meeting, but rather remain on hold.” ETF flows, which slowed last week due to market jitters ahead of key macro events, are also expected to play a critical role. Ted noted, “Last week saw slowing ETF flows on Wall Street for Bitcoin. Likely owed to jitters ahead of key macro events, it will be key for BTC strength that flows return in the week ahead.” Strong ETF flows are essential for maintaining liquidity and supporting Bitcoin’s price. In conclusion, this week is set to be pivotal for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The interplay of disinflation trends, Federal Reserve communications, key support levels, and external economic factors will shape the market’s direction. Ted concluded, “The data is clearly pointing towards a shift to more accommodative monetary policy—and potentially sooner rather than later. This reinforces my view that dips are buying opportunities for risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks.” At press time, BTC traded at $65,965. Bitcoin falls below $66,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com Source: NewsBTC.com The post Bitcoin Price Faces Crucial Test: Here’s What At Stake This Week appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

随着比特币进入关键一周，市场参与者正密切关注可能决定其近期走势的几个关键指标和事件。著名加密货币分析师 Ted (@tedtalksmacro) 进行了深入分析，强调了其中的关键因素。
每周比特币预览
特德的分析首先从宏观经济环境的角度进行。上周美国消费者物价指数 (CPI) 和生产者物价指数 (PPI) 数据对风险资产而言都较为乐观，凸显了通货紧缩趋势的持续。特德指出：“CPI 和 PPI 数据对风险资产而言都较为乐观，均表明通货紧缩趋势仍在持续。”不过，他警告称，美联储的沟通表明，市场不应过于热衷于即将到来的降息。
相关阅读
本周的焦点是联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议及其修正后的点阵图。3 月份的点阵图显示 2024 年可能降息 2-3 次。然而，6 月份的点阵图修正表明前景更为保守，预计仅降息 1-2 次。Ted 解释说：“3 月份的点阵图显示 2024 年可能降息 2-3 次，但 6 月份的点阵图显示预计仅降息 1-2 次。”
美联储的预测与市场预期的这种一致性可能为央行在未来的利率沟通中提供更大的灵活性。对于比特币来说，维持 66,000 美元的支撑位至关重要。
Ted 强调了这一门槛的重要性，他表示：“比特币维持 66,000 美元的支撑位至关重要。如果跌破该支撑位，卖家可能会在市场上占据主导地位，并迫使多头迅速平仓。”这一支撑位被视为一个关键门槛，可能对更广泛的市场情绪产生影响。
比特币和以太坊的隐含周线反映了交易员的谨慎乐观态度。预计比特币交易价格在 65,100 美元至 74,100 美元之间，而以太坊预计在 3,388 美元至 4,025 美元之间波动。Ted 强调，“本周对于维持 BTC（以及更广泛的加密货币市场）的短期趋势至关重要。”
相关阅读
泰德还指出了美国科技股的表现，尤其是纳斯达克指数，该指数最近创下了历史新高。他指出：“美国科技股肯定感受到了通货紧缩的氛围，纳斯达克指数在预期央行政策将更加宽松的情况下突破历史新高。”这种脱节​​表明，比特币可能正在酝酿着一些事情。
以太坊相对于比特币的表现是另一个值得关注的领域。Ted 表示，以太坊可能开始“追赶比特币”，尤其是在华尔街即将推出现货以太坊 ETF 的情况下。以太坊缩小与比特币表现差距的潜力是未来几天需要关注的重要动态。
此外，瑞士央行 (SNB) 和澳大利亚储备银行 (RBA) 的利率决定也备受关注。虽然预计这些央行不会降息，但它们的决定将受到密切关注，以寻找未来货币政策转变的任何迹象。Ted 提到，“预计澳大利亚或瑞士央行不会在本周的会议上降息，而是维持利率不变。”
上周，由于市场在关键宏观事件前的紧张情绪，ETF 资金流有所放缓，预计也将发挥关键作用。Ted 指出，“上周华尔街比特币 ETF 资金流有所放缓。可能是由于市场在关键宏观事件前的紧张情绪，未来一周资金流的恢复将是 BTC 走强的关键。”强劲的 ETF 资金流对于维持流动性和支撑比特币价格至关重要。
总之，本周将成为比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场的关键一周。通货紧缩趋势、美联储的沟通、关键支撑位和外部经济因素的相互作用将决定市场的走向。Ted 总结道：“数据清楚地表明，货币政策将转向更为宽松的政策，而且可能很快就会出现。这强化了我的观点，即逢低买入加密货币和股票等风险资产是机会。”
截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 65,965 美元。
比特币跌破 66,000 美元，1 日图 | 资料来源：TradingView.com 上的 BTCUSD
特色图片由 DALL·E 创建，图表来自 TradingView.com
来源：NewsBTC.com
比特币价格面临关键考验：本周面临的风险如下，该文章最先出现在 Crypto Breaking News 上。

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