XRP price found support near the $0.5600 zone. The price is again rising and might aim for a break above the $0.60 resistance zone.

XRP price remained supported near the $0.560 zone.

The price is now trading above $0.5750 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $0.5750 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).

The pair could gain bullish momentum if it clears the $0.590 and $0.600 resistance levels.

XRP Price Regains Strength

XRP price started a fresh decline from the $0.5985 zone like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price declined below the $0.5750 support zone, but the bulls were active near the $0.560 zone.

A low was formed at $0.5597 and the price started a fresh upward move, beating BTC and ETH. There was a steady increase above the $0.570 and $0.5720 resistance levels. It cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.5989 swing high to the $0.5597 low.

There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $0.5750 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading above $0.5750 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $0.5890 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.5989 swing high to the $0.5597 low. The first major resistance is near the $0.590 level.

The next key resistance could be $0.600. A clear move above the $0.600 resistance might send the price toward the $0.6120 resistance. The next major resistance is near the $0.6250 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.6320 resistance or even $0.6440 in the near term.

Another Decline?

If XRP fails to clear the $0.590 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.5765 level. The next major support is $0.5750.

If there is a downside break and a close below the $0.5750 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $0.560 support in the near term. The next major support sits at $0.5420.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.5765 and $0.5600.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.5900 and $0.6000.

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post XRP Price Restarts Climb: Will Bulls Push It Past $0.60? appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Data shows that the sentiment of the Bitcoin market has switched to fear after the retrace. BTC has seen a $58,000 level during the past day.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Pointing At ‘Fear’ Now

The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the general sentiment among the investors in the Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market.

Market sentiment can be helpful to follow as it can reflect the cryptocurrency’s price. It sometimes plays a role in the asset’s trajectory, which may be unexpected to many investors.

The Fear & Greed Index uses data from the following five factors to estimate the average sentiment among investors: volatility, trading volume momentum, social media sentiment, market cap dominance, and Google Trends.

Based on these factors, the metric represents this mentality as a score between zero and hundred. The index having a value greater than 53 implies the presence of greed among the investors, while under 47 suggests fear in the market. The values in between these two cutoffs suggest a net-neutral mentality.

Now, here is what the latest Bitcoin market sentiment has looked like from the perspective of the indicator:

As is visible above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 39, which suggests that the majority of the investors in the market are slightly fearful at the moment.

This is a notable change from yesterday, when the index had a value of 51, and the holders had been sharing a neutral mentality. The chart below shows a record of all the changes in the index over the past year.

As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index saw a sharp improvement over the weekend, caused by the recovery that the asset price had enjoyed beyond the $60,000 mark.

However, the cryptocurrency has kicked off the new week with a plunge back towards $58,000, which may be why the sentiment has also seen a reset to the fear region.

That said, while the index is back in the fear zone, it’s not yet at the 31 value it was at before the earlier recovery. This fact, however, may not be a good sign for the asset.

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to move against the expectations of the majority. The probability of a contrary move occurring has only increased the more the investors have become sure of a direction.

Thus, when the Fear & Greed Index assumes low values (signifying a special sentiment called the extreme fear), bottoms can be probable to occur. Similarly, it being high (extreme greed) can signal tops.

With the Bitcoin market being only slightly fearful right now, it seems the pullback in the cryptocurrency hasn’t been enough to deal a heavy blow to investor morale. Naturally,  a pullback can still occur for the coin, but it may be less likely if sentiment worsens further.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has dropped more than 3% over the past day, which has taken its price to $58,100.

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Bitcoin Investors Succumb To Fear As BTC Erases $60,000 Weekend Recovery appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Ethereum price gained bearish momentum and traded below $2,350. ETH is consolidating losses and might struggle to recover above $2,350.

Ethereum started another decline below $2,350 and $2,320.

The price is trading below $2,310 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2,360 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).

The pair must clear the $2,360 resistance to start a recovery wave in the near term.

Ethereum Price Starts Consolidation

Ethereum price failed to clear the $2,450 resistance and started another decline like Bitcoin. ETH traded below the $2,400 and $2,350 support levels to enter a bearish zone.

The price even dived below the $2,320 level. A low was formed at $2,253 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery wave above the $2,285 level. The price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $2,466 swing high to the $2,253 low.

Ethereum price is now trading below $2,310 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price seems to be facing hurdles near the $2,300 level. There is also a declining channel forming with resistance at $2,300 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

The first major resistance is near the $2,340 level. The next key resistance is near $2,360 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $2,466 swing high to the $2,253 low. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2,360 on the same chart.

An upside break above the $2,360 resistance might call for more gains. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,420 resistance zone in the near term. The next hurdle sits near the $2,465 level.

More Losses In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,360 resistance, it could start another decline in the near term. Initial support on the downside is near $2,265. The first major support sits near the $2,250 zone.

A clear move below the $2,250 support might push the price toward $2,200. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,150 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $2,120.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $2,250

Major Resistance Level – $2,300

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Ethereum Price Struggles to Recover: Short-Term Outlook Weak appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Regardless of the Ethereum (ETH) price’s unappealing performance, the latest analysis from top crypto analysts in the space predicts that the asset might be on the verge of a parabolic rise.

In a recent post uploaded on X, renowned crypto analyst Javon Marks has laid out an optimistic scenario for Ethereum, suggesting a potential price surge similar to a pattern witnessed in 2023.

Key Level To Watch For A Rally To $8,100?

According to Marks, Ethereum is poised to replicate a previous pattern that led to a more than 160% surge. In the post on X, he states, “ETH looks to have replicated a pattern from 2023 that led into an over +165% climb, and it’s looking to be ‘GO TIME’ again.”

Marks has set a target price of $4,723.5, adding that a break above this price mark could bring in the possibility of Ethereum reaching above $8,100. This projection suggests a near doubling of Ethereum’s current price if this trend materializes.

$ETH (Ethereum) looks to have replicated a pattern from 2023 that led into an over +165% climb and it’s looking to be “GO TIME ” again!

2023 looks to have been the blueprint for another massive upside that can be soon transpiring in this crypto market.

Target is at $4,723.5… pic.twitter.com/a1ePw6wpF3

— JAVONMARKS (@JavonTM1) September 15, 2024

Despite this optimistic forecast, Ethereum’s recent market performance has shown bearish tendencies. In the past 24 hours alone, ETH has declined by 4.5%, causing its price to fall below the $2,400 mark—a level it briefly traded above over the weekend.

Ethereum Price: On The Flip Side

While Javon Marks’ analysis points towards a bullish future for Ethereum, other market analysts have outlined the critical support zones that Ethereum must hold to prevent further decline.

Ali, another well-known crypto analyst, has highlighted a crucial support range between $2,290 and $2,360. This zone, according to Ali, is significant as it is where roughly 1.90 million addresses hold around 52.30 million ETH.

Ali warns that if Ethereum fails to maintain this support, a sell-off could ensue, potentially driving the price toward the $1,800 level.

Notably, a breach below this range would be quite detrimental to the ETH market as it would not only trigger a significant amount of liquidations but also invalidate the bullish predictions and lead to a further downtrend, marking a substantial shift in the market sentiment.

Key support for #Ethereum lies between $2,290 and $2,360, where 1.90 million addresses hold ~52.30 million $ETH. If this demand zone breaks, we could see a sell-off driving #ETH toward $1,800. pic.twitter.com/ubP9ZZd8H0

— Ali (@ali_charts) September 15, 2024

Featured image created DALL-E, Chart from Tradingview

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Is Ethereum Primed For Surge? Analyst Reveals Key Levels to Watch For A $8,100 Rally appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Bitcoin price started another decline from the $60,650 resistance. BTC is now at risk of more downsides below the $57,500 support zone.

Bitcoin is correcting gains and gaining bearish pace below the $59,000 level.

The price is trading below $58,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $58,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

The pair could climb again if it stays above the $57,500 support zone.

Bitcoin Price Turns Red

Bitcoin price struggled to clear the $60,000 resistance zone and started a fresh decline. BTC declined below the $60,000 and $59,500 levels to start a downside correction.

There was a drop below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $55,550 swing low to the $60,638 high. The bears were able to push the price toward the $57,500 support zone. There is now a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $58,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin is now trading below $58,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. It is testing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $55,550 swing low to the $60,638 high.

On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $58,000 level and the trend line. The first key resistance is near the $59,200 level and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. A clear move above the $59,200 resistance might start a steady increase in the coming sessions.

The next key resistance could be $60,000. A close above the $60,000 resistance might spark more upsides. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $60,650 resistance.

More Downsides In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $58,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $57,500 level.

The first major support is $56,750. The next support is now near the $56,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $55,550 support in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $57,500, followed by $56,750.

Major Resistance Levels – $58,000, and $59,200.

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Bitcoin Price at Risk of Further Downside: Will Bears Tighten Grip? appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) platform Delta Primes suffered a security breach on Monday, affecting the protocol’s users. The attack took $6 million from the project’s pools and is under investigation. However, on-chain investigators suspect it could be linked to North Korean hackers and be part of a larger-scale scheme.

Hackers Drain $6 Million From DeFi Protocol

On Monday morning, cyber security platform Cyvers Alerts informed the community about the ongoing attack on DeFi borrowing protocol Delta Primes. The initial report revealed that Cyvers’ system had detected multiple suspicious transactions involving the project on the Arbitrum chain.

The transactions suggested the DeFi protocol’s team had lost the private key, initially losing $4.5 million from the DPUSDC, DPARB, and DPBTCb pools. The suspicious draining address immediately swapped the USDC for Ethereum (ETH).

In the next hour, Cyvers detailed that the attackers had seemingly changed the proxy, pointing to a malicious address. Other reports explained that “this malicious contract can inflate the deposited amount of the hacker on all pools.”

The attackers drained another $1.48 million from the pools before Delta Prime’s team regained control. Two hours after the initial reports, the DeFi platform addressed the incident.

Per the post, DeltaPrime Blue, on the Arbritum chain, was attacked and drained for $5.98 million. The team confirmed that the attack was due to a compromised private key, with the cause still being investigated.

Delta Prime’s team also assured users that DetalPrime Red, on Avalanche, was safe from this attack, detailing that the “implementation here is covered solely by multisigs and cold wallets (as it should be).”

Additionally, the post claimed that the risk was already contained, reassuring its community that the DeFi protocol’s insurance pool would cover potential losses:

The risk is contained, we’re working on asset-retrieval and the insurance pool will cover any potential losses where possible / necessary. Additionally, we’re looking into other ways to reduce user losses to a minimum.

Are North Korean Hackers Responsible?

Despite the quick response, some users expressed their concerns about the incident. When questioned about it, the team explained that there were no timelocks for DeltaPrime Blue:

This is exactly what timelocks are for. The switch from this hot & non-timelocked owner to a cold timelocked owner should have been done on Arbitrum like it was on Avalanche (and like other initial owners on Arbi)

One community member criticized the team for not having the same security measures on DeltaPrime Blue and Red, stating there was no excuse for the mistake. Moreover, on-chain sleuth ZachXBT suggested that the attack could be linked to a larger-scale problem.

A month ago, Zach assisted another team with another crypto hack. The investigation unveiled that over 25 projects within the space had unknowingly hired multiple IT workers from North Korea using fake identities as developers.

Today, the crypto detective revealed that the DeFi protocol was among the teams he alerted about the North Korean IT workers in August. He also noted that the method used for Delta Prime’s exploit was similar to the hack he originally assisted.

As of this writing, Delta Prime’s team has not addressed the possible link. However, it stated that they would focus on getting the funds back and that “the event isn’t over yet.”

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post DeFi Platform Delta Primes Loses $6 Million In Security Breach, Is North Korea Involved? appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

As Bitcoin (BTC) grapples with a challenging market environment, it has struggled to regain momentum, hovering around the $53,000 and $60,000 levels for six consecutive weeks. 

After losing the crucial $70,000 threshold on August 1, the largest cryptocurrency remains at risk of further declines, particularly with the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on September 18, where a 0.50% rate cut could significantly impact its price.

BTC’s Future Hangs In Balance

Recent insights from crypto analyst Doctor Profit suggest that the market is closely divided, with equal chances—50%—of a 0.25% or 0.50% rate cut. However, Doctor Profit is confident that the Fed will opt for the larger cut, citing a need for decisive action in the current economic climate. He notes, “A 0.25% cut is simply too little for where we are now.” 

The analyst argues that failing to implement a 0.50% cut could lead to market turmoil reminiscent of the “Blood Monday” experienced on August 5, which saw Bitcoin plummet to lows of $48,900, resulting in a nearly 25% price drop.

According to Doctor Profit, this could include acknowledging the Fed’s past strategies and an optimistic outlook for the economy, potentially paving the way for future rate cuts.

Given these potential scenarios, the analyst warns of the potential for market manipulation and “scam wicks” that could mislead investors on both sides of the trade. In addition, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Israel-Lebanon situation, add another layer of complexity and may exacerbate market fears and volatility.

Despite the short-term risks, Doctor Profit remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, particularly through the end of Q3 2025.

The analyst believes that any short-term panic will ultimately be countered by a return to expansive monetary policy, as seen in the recent influx of USDT and other cash injections into the market. He highlights that once the rate cuts are implemented, the Fed’s money printing will likely resume, providing a foundation for recovery.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Looking deeper into the current price action, analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that Bitcoin trades within a parallel channel on the hourly chart. 

Martinez contends that Bitcoin could bounce back to the middle or upper levels if the lower border holds, targeting $60,200 or $62,000. However, Martinez warns that a break below the support level of $58,100 could lead to a drop towards $55,000.

Zooming out to a broader perspective, Martinez also highlights concerning trends in Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Momentum. Since breaking below the $66,750 mark in June, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend, and this negative trend has yet to show signs of reversal. 

To invalidate this indicator, BTC needs to break above this level and reclaim it as support, which could signal the continuation of an expected rally towards the all-time high of $73,700 reached in March this year.

When writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market is trading at $58,440, recording losses of over 3% in the 24-hour. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Bitcoin Alert: Analyst Predicts New ‘Blood Monday’ With 0.50% Fed Rate Cut Looming appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

Ethereum is wavy when writing as bulls struggle to build momentum and push the coin above the immediate resistance levels at around $2,400 and $2,800. Even so, most ETH holders are upbeat, expecting prices to turn around the corner and soar, even breaking above July highs of around $3,500.

61% Of ETH Holders In The Money

Amid this development and the general lull, IntoTheBlock data shows that 61% of all ETH holders are in the money. That over 50% of all ETH holders are in green despite the coin shedding nearly 35% from July highs and nearly 45% from 2024 highs points to resilience, especially in the face of determined bears.

Technically, the resilience among ETH holders indicates a wave of optimism sweeping through its ecosystem. According to IntoTheBlock, this development means that at current levels, more ETH holders are making money, way higher than in bear market cycles. Then, profitability tends to fall drastically.

For context, IntoTheBlock analysts note that during the 2019/2020 period, when prices fell, the percentage of profitable holders at one point dropped to as low as 10%.

Additionally, in the last bear run, the percentage of ETH holders making money fell to 46%. However, this was way higher than the 3% when ETH prices dumped to as low as 3% in the depth of the 2018 bear run.

Ethereum Holders Confident, Support Lies At $2,290 And $2,360

ETH’s profitability percentage has evolved over the years, pointing to a maturing market where holders are still confident about what lies ahead.

According to Dune data, there are 128,804,395 ETH in the circulating supply. Out of this, the top 1,000 addresses control over 49.1 million or 38.15%. If IntoTheBlock data is anything to go by, most of these whales are in the green, making money. Accordingly, they won’t be incentivized to sell, increasing pressure on ETH.

Looking closer at on-chain data, one analyst notes that ETH has a critical support at between $2,290 and $2,360. In this zone, nearly 1.9 million addresses were bought and currently hold approximately 52.3 million ETH.

Millions of ETH were bought at this level, meaning it is a critical loading zone. If broken, the analyst predicts sharp losses that will drop the coin below August lows to $1,800 in a bear trend continuation formation.

Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post 61% Of Ethereum Holders Are Profitable But ETH Bulls Must Hold $2,290 appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

MicroStrategy, a leading business intelligence and Bitcoin development company, has announced a proposed private offering of $700 million in convertible senior notes, due 2028. The offering will be made to institutional buyers under Rule 144A of the Securities Act. The company also plans to grant an option for purchasers to buy an additional $105 million of the notes.

JUST IN: MicroStrategy to raise $700 million "to acquire additional #bitcoin" and redeem Senior Secured Notes. pic.twitter.com/2VV9PMkEd6

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) September 16, 2024

The notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of MicroStrategy, bearing interest semi-annually and maturing in September 2028. Holders of these notes may convert them into cash, shares of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock, or a combination of both, at the company’s discretion. Conversion terms will be determined at the time of pricing.

MicroStrategy intends to use the proceeds to redeem all $500 million of its existing 6.125% Senior Secured Notes due in 2028. The remaining proceeds will be allocated to acquiring additional Bitcoin.

“On September 16, 2024, MicroStrategy issued a redemption notice pursuant to which the Senior Secured Notes will be redeemed on September 26, 2024 (the “Redemption Date”) at a redemption price equal to 103.063% of the principal amount, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to but excluding the Redemption Date (approximately $523.8 million in the aggregate), with the redemption of the Senior Secured Notes contingent on the closing and settlement of the sale of the notes,” MicroStrategy stated. “Upon redemption of the Senior Secured Notes, all collateral securing the Senior Secured Notes, including approximately 69,080 bitcoins, will be released.”

The offer is subject to market conditions, with no guarantee on the timing or terms of completion. The notes will not be available for public sale, maintaining private status under the Securities Act.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

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Dual Investment: Earn high yields with structured products that offer exposure to multiple assets.

Source: NewsBTC.com

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Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently trading at $0.102, but the popular meme-based cryptocurrency appears to be positioning itself for a potential move to the upside. Over the past five months, Dogecoin has largely traded in a downtrend with the formation of lower highs and lower lows. This consistent downward pressure has led to the development of a classic price pattern known as a falling wedge.

According to a technical analyst who has been closely tracking Dogecoin’s movements, the daily chart suggests that the falling wedge is nearing its conclusion, and a bullish breakout is now in sight. If Dogecoin successfully breaks out of this wedge, the analyst projects a price target of $0.20.

Dogecoin Falling Wedge Breaking Bullish

A falling wedge is a narrowing price channel that typically signals a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. The key feature of this pattern is that it shows a gradual reduction in the downward price movement as buyers start to step in, causing price consolidation. In the case of Dogecoin, this pattern was highlighted by a technical analyst known pseudonymously as Crypto Yapper on social media platform X. 

According to the DOGE/USDT chart on the 1D candlestick, DOGE has largely been on a downtrend since it peaked at its yearly high of $0.22 in March. At one point, DOGE fell by 63% from $0.22 to a low of $0.08 on August 5. Following this low point in early August, Dogecoin has managed to stage a modest recovery, rising by approximately 25% to its current level. However, DOGE has yet to break above the upper resistance trendline of the falling wedge pattern.

$DOGE almost Breaking Out !

This Falling Wedge on the #DOGE daily chart is close to breaking Bullish

The break out target for #Dogecoin will be $0.20 pic.twitter.com/MoAQe1Xo6r

— Crypto Yapper (@CryptoYapper) September 14, 2024

Since bouncing off $0.088 on September 6, DOGE has traveled upwards to retest the upper trendline of the falling wedge at around $0.108. As noted by Crypto Yapper, a successful break to the upside would see DOGE doubling its current value and reaching $0.20.

While this price target might seem modest at first glance, especially considering that Dogecoin had already surpassed $0.20 earlier in the year, it represents the cryptocurrency’s recovery from its prolonged downtrend. This, in turn, could lead to a total change into bullish sentiment, with DOGE eventually breaking above $0.22.

Echoing the falling wedge pattern analysis is another DOGE trader (CryptoHotep). According to him, DOGE at $0.10 is a gift. His post featured a similar DOGE/USD price chart featuring the falling wedge pattern from $0.22, albeit with the upper trendline only.

This comment was made regarding a forecasted breakout above the upper trendline. Although there wasn’t a projected price target, his comment showed this is probably the best time to buy DOGE before the projected breakout. 

Source: NewsBTC.com

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This article is featured in Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Privacy Issue”. Subscribe to receive your copy.

“Anarchy is order; government is civil war.” – Bellegarrigue

The advent of decentralized money gave rise to an intriguing cognitive bias among early adopters. Bitcoin’s success is convincing many that we can do away with trusted institutions altogether—that trust itself can be engineered away. This hubris is reflected in how we deploy our collective resources and capital.

In the absence of appropriate social structures, we have become risk averse and generally mistrusting of each other. As a result, Bitcoin commerce has become marginalized and many revolutionaries have retreated into techno-utopianism. This complacency has deprived many of the tools needed to navigate this digital economy. Between regulated platforms and half-baked scaling solutions, there is little room for alternatives.

The situation is bleak: the majority of Bitcoin’s commercial activity still revolves around fiat interfaces. Inertia has left users vulnerable to highly organized state actors. While our technical elite fantasizes about theoretical constructs, progress around practical solutions has stalled. Instead of stimulating market functions to replace current financial institutions, we have allowed them to further entrench their position, passively accepting their authority.

This pattern is all too familiar in revolutionary movements—once wealth has been seized or obtained, ideals often become lazy.

Fortunately, the convergence of two technologies—one old and one new—holds the potential to challenge the status quo. Chaumian ecash, decades in the making, and Nostr, a novel, decentralized, social network could provide the groundwork necessary for emergent behavior to trump central planning.

The Financial Anarchist seeks to harness this potential and challenge the incumbent system with decentralized alternatives. He embraces the risk entailed by this duty because he believes it is right and just. He believes we can embrace and wield trust rather than reject it outright

For the Financial Anarchist, decentralization is not an end in itself, but a means to empower individuals and cultivate genuine economic freedom.

A public forum

Like Bitcoin, Nostr does not attempt to prescribe what its users make of it; rather, it offers a set of rules for individuals to organize around and create a foundation for markets to emerge. Those rules are based on a fundamental set of principles: censorship resistance and decentralization.

It achieves this using distributed servers called relays. Relays host content published by users, and thanks to encryption, cannot discriminate based on the nature of the content. Each user event is signed by his cryptographic key and Nostr ensures it remains always available by distributing data across multiple relays. Of course, users are also encouraged to run their own relays. To interact with this network of servers, participants use a variety of software clients that can verify the authenticity of messages shared by others.

Those features and many more make Nostr a strong contender to become the identity layer for the online arena. Every individual is represented by a unique identifier tied to a public key. The motivation is to eliminate the concept of accounts usually associated with centralized platforms. The arrival of Nostr heralds a new era of market prosperity, enabling individuals to liberate themselves from the serfdom of the consumer internet. Identity is finally freed from its fiat chains.

Thanks to its versatility, the protocol lends itself to an ever-growing number of use cases. Chief among them is the creation of social networks for us to coordinate around local and global marketplaces. An interesting trend in this direction is the integration of Nostr with Bitcoin payment applications. Using the protocol to communicate between Bitcoin services, we can enable interoperability so that our social graphs can be ported to any supported application. Our network becomes an extension of our Nostr public key, allowing us to maintain our financial relationships across platforms.

The Financial Anarchist imagines Nostr as the foundation of a new Serene Republic, the ultimate theater for trade and industry in the digital world. It is here that we begin the process of individuation anew.

Reputation markets

Today’s reputation systems are entangled with fiat institutions, with public information about trade and commerce siloed into centralized databases. An open and distributed record of trust is a significant step towards a legal system more closely resembling natural laws. Based on cryptographic attestations of social connections, a functional Web-of-Trust can align users’ incentives and allow markets to thrive by significantly reducing the costs typically associated with enforcing fiat contracts and laws.

Though this may seem implausible, informal systems like Hawala already rely on trust and reputation to operate. Based on a global network of informal brokers, nearly half a trillion dollars move through these channels every year. Built on centuries of accumulated trust and relationships, Hawala examplifies the potential and resilience of self-regulating economies. (citation needed)

Nostr introduces a radical shift in our approach to reputation as it promises to replace centralized certificate authorities with local and distributed trust archives. Relational databases can now be unique to every individual, informed by their voluntary interactions with other market participants. Using simple discovery features, we can reduce information asymmetry and practically eliminate barriers to entry. Individuals new to Nostr only need a single trusted connection to reveal an entire social graph based on their peer’s connections. Imagine the “recommended” feature of the average digital platform but open and extended to every facet of the market based on your social network.

Nostr gives us the tools to survey the integrity of counterparties and accurately assess your position against them in the economy. It is now possible to establish trust structures outside the purview of traditional internet platforms.

Economist Hernando De Soto has attested to the quality of societal records as a defining characteristic of modern societies. Keeping accurate records of assets and transactions is crucial to economic prosperity. Nostr allows us to take an unprecedented leap forward in this regard. We can finally seize information and our data back from the fiat overlords.

The goal is not to eliminate institutions or middlemen but to democratize the provision of such services — preferring systems based on social accountability over centralized institutions and their monopoly on violence.

Electronic cash

While Bitcoin makes several tradeoffs to achieve global trust, the decentralization of finance should not be seen as an end in itself. Unfortunately, this misconception has gained popularity over the years, leading to inevitable conflicts of interest and moral hazards.

A compelling alternative is to recognize and embrace the inherently local nature of finance. Finance operates locally, while money functions globally. Attempting to decentralize finance as if it were money is an exercise in futility.

Chaumian ecash offers a different approach. For the uninitiated, ecash is a medium of payment made possible by the use of blinded servers. Using any form of collateral, the server can issue a corresponding number of tradeable notes. By design, Chaumian mints cannot identify individual payments, payers, or payees. Notes can be transmitted over any communication layer and do not rely on third parties for settlement. The Lightning network allows every Chaumian mint to settle with one another, allowing local finance to operate at a global scale.

Despite its remarkable features, ecash has often been dismissed by casual observers due to its custodial model. However, this perspective overlooks its true potential. By distributing risk across smaller, local instances, we can address the systemic issues typically associated with custodians. Payments are inherently social, making intermediated finance a natural fit for many transactions. The Financial Anarchist dreams of a future where every Bitcoin wallet has access to the modern equivalent of a neighborhood bank. By leveraging their Nostr social graph, users will be able to quickly identify trusted payment hubs within their network. In doing so, ecash protocols will redefine banking and payment services. We can reduce finance to its smallest common denominators, reversing decades of centralization caused by fiat cronyism.

Using Nostr as a coordination mechanism, we can empower communities to pool common resources and establish dedicated financial hubs. Individuals can interface with the Lightning network by sharing channels and liquidity, providing cost-effective payments for every participant. Any group of users can now collaborate to optimize their interactions with the Bitcoin network. As a result, the convenience and user experience associated with custodial wallets are no longer exclusive to large institutions.

Because of the protocol’s versatility, onboarding other users becomes trivial. Ecash notes can be issued for every payment request and used by the recipient to pay any Lightning invoice. Atomic payments allow it to piggyback off any wallet on the network without the application developer changing a single line of code. Users can accumulate notes from different issuers or swap them into their preferred mint. Alternatively, distinct notes can be used to fund a single multi-party payment, affording users incredible freedom and optionality. Members of certain communities may begin accepting a collection of different notes depending on their relative social proximity to the issuers. Mints could be distributed such that multiple operators could issue tokens, effectively distributing the risk of user exposure to a single operator.

This free flow of payment will snowball in different ways. First, a new class of dedicated users will emerge, advertising their services through various marketplaces. One area of particular interest is the provision of stable ecash notes. Thanks to its native programmability, it’s possible to issue dollar-denominated ecash backed by Bitcoin reserves. This could have significant implications for the Bitcoin economy. Using the asset as collateral presents many opportunities to extend its market demand beyond its current speculative use cases. This could result in a flywheel effect which provides the necessary liquidity for it to stabilize over time and become a more reliable medium of exchange. Until then, the unique properties of ecash make it a superior option for payment applications which could see it challenging the current treasury-backed stablecoin hegemony.

The operation of stablecoin mints also creates compelling incentives for liquidity providers. By issuing dollar-denominated notes, they can establish non-custodial long exposure to Bitcoin and take directional bets on the asset. The distributed and permissionless nature of ecash operations presents an interesting contrast to the centralization of current stablecoin issuers, offering market actors a way to hedge their risks against single points of failure.

The grassroots adoption of this technology will undoubtedly face challenges, akin to the early days of Bitcoin and Lightning. While hobbyists and amateurs play a crucial role in bootstrapping ecash, creating a robust and reliable financial system at scale will involve growing pains. Opportunists may exploit others’ trust, and the custodial aspect of mints makes them particularly susceptible to scams and fraud.

However, safeguards can be implemented to mitigate these risks. One idea being explored is programmatic redemption, which would require issuers to regularly prove their solvency. Users would periodically “rotate” the notes in their wallets, exchanging them for new ones. Some have referred to the idea as “scheduled bank runs”. The technical details could be abstracted away to ensure a seamless experience. Additionally, various “Proof-of-Liability” systems are being developed to mitigate the risks of fractional reserves.

As a general rule, it is wise to avoid holding more in ecash mints than one can afford to lose.

Conclusion

We have no elected government, nor are we likely to have one, so I address you with no greater authority than that with which liberty itself always speaks. I declare the global social space we are building to be naturally independent of the tyrannies you seek to impose on us. You have no moral right to rule us nor do you possess any methods of enforcement we have true reason to fear. – A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace

In an age where centralized authorities dictate the rules of financial engagement, the Financial Anarchist emerges with a radical proposition: to support an alternative system reliant on trust between individuals.

This is not a call for civil disobedience. It is also not an attempt to undermine the valiant work of developers focusing on trust-minimized technologies. It is the proclamation of the undeniable potential within our grasp as individuals to organize and use technology to elevate our communities.

The spirit of voluntary association at the heart of Bitcoin should drive us to focus our efforts on maximizing market optionality. Sadly, the paternalistic approach borne out of techno-utopianism has failed at this mission and left us stuck within the constraints of traditional financial institutions.

The Financial Anarchist envisions a world where Nostr and Chaumian ecash allow us to reclaim this sovereignty. By opening up the design space for experimentation and locally-driven initiatives, we are making a conscious effort to divorce from the centralized command structure we’ve inherited. The vision of autonomy and self-regulation alluded to by those tools reinforces the notion that individuals should be free to define their economic relationships on their own terms.

We must build new autonomous zones across cyberspace, away and out of reach from the “weary giants of flesh and steel” Perry Barlow warned us about. The current state of distrust in our ranks is not the natural order of things; it is the consequence of generations of imposed authority. It is no surprise that today nobody even trusts their neighbor. Should Bitcoin prevail, we expect this trend to reverse course and eventually foster levels of trust among individuals previously deemed unimaginable. Anything less would be a tragic outcome.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

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Dogecoin (DOGE) is holding strong above a key price level after a small market dip on Sunday, putting it at a crucial turning point. The meme coin recently broke out of a monthly downtrend that has kept its price suppressed since late March, signaling a potential shift in momentum. 

Analysts and investors are growing increasingly optimistic about DOGE’s latest price action, with some predicting that if Dogecoin breaks above the $0.12 mark, it could trigger a larger rally in the meme coin space. 

However, the next few days will be critical in determining whether DOGE can lead this rally or if it will need a period of consolidation before pushing higher. As the broader crypto market looks for direction, all eyes are on Dogecoin to see if it can capitalize on this positive momentum and set the stage for further gains.

Dogecoin Holding Strong Above $0.10 

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been between $0.092 and $0.115 since early August, forming a consolidation pattern many analysts believe signals accumulation by smart money. This consolidation suggests that significant players may be preparing for a potential breakout.

Some analysts are particularly optimistic, stating that DOGE is breaking out of a monthly downtrend channel that began in late March when Dogecoin was trading at $0.22.

One top analyst and investor, Daan, shared a technical analysis on X showing DOGE breaking through this downtrend line, which presents a new opportunity for meme coin investors. Daan emphasizes that if DOGE holds above the critical $0.105 support and can break above the $0.12 level with conviction, the meme coin could aggressively surge to higher prices.

According to Daan, once Dogecoin confirms an uptrend, its price skyrockets rapidly, leaving no room for hesitation. Historically, when DOGE enters such phases, it experiences sharp upward movements accompanied by high volatility.

This potential move has drawn attention to Dogecoin, as investors and traders alike are eager to see if it will continue to dominate the meme coin sector. The next few days and weeks will be critical in determining whether DOGE can sustain its momentum and break through these key resistance levels.

DOGE Price Analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading at $0.101 after experiencing a 7% dip since Friday. Before this decline, DOGE surged over 22% from local lows on September 6, marking a strong recovery in a short period.

Last Friday, the price broke above the 4-hour 200 exponential moving average (EMA) at around $0.103, often seen as a signal of short-term strength. However, despite this move, DOGE has struggled to maintain its position above the 4H 200 EMA, and recent price action has hovered just below this key level.

For DOGE to regain bullish momentum, it is essential for the price to reclaim the 4H 200 EMA and hold above it. This would provide short-term support and potentially pave the way for targeting higher prices. On the other hand, if DOGE fails to close above this EMA, a deeper correction is likely, with the next major support level expected around $0.097.

As the market remains uncertain, the coming days will be critical for DOGE’s price direction. Investors are closely watching whether it can break back above key technical levels or face further downside pressure.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Source: NewsBTC.com

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On the heels of tour stops in Arizona, Nevada and Detroit, the America Loves Crypto tour rolled into Wisconsin on Friday, September 13, where local Bitcoin and crypto voters in the state rallied in support of pro-crypto candidates for the upcoming US elections. At the Red Rock Saloon in Milwaukee, WI, more than 200 people — including founders, politicians and technology enthusiasts — congregated to ask the question: How can we support Bitcoin and crypto on Capitol Hill?

The battleground state was split nearly down the middle in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, with Biden and Trump receiving 1,630,866 and 1,610,184 votes, respectively. With 840,000 Wisconsinites owning some form of cryptocurrency, the narrow 2020 electoral margin of just 20,000 votes could easily be disrupted by the undecided crypto vote in 2024.

The America Loves Crypto crowd was met with politicians from both sides of the aisle as well as Bitcoin and crypto industry representatives, followed by up-and-coming artist Jessie Murph, whose soulful blend of country and pop music resonated with a surprising number of fans.

The event’s speakers included Josh Schoemann, Washington County Executive (R); Peter Burgelis, City of Milwaukee Alderman (D); Kara Calvert, Coinbase Head of U.S. Policy; Dom Bei, founder of Proof of Workforce; Spencer Smith, Founder of AmpliPhi Digital; Tiara Nicole, Co-founder of Craft the Future; Ian McCullough, Stand With Crypto WI chapter president and Awen co-founder; and Maggie Schmidt, Awen co-founder.

Wisconsin State Pension’s Bitcoin Investment

In May of this year, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) invested $162 million dollars in Bitcoin ETFs, becoming the first U.S. state pension fund to invest in the asset class.

“The Wisconsin retirement system is a very healthy fund, and it’s funded at almost 100%. Very few pensions in the U.S. can boast that, and they are the 10th largest pension in the nation,” Dom Bei told Bitcoin Magazine.

“They have a good balance of being both conservative and innovative. It’s a huge deal because they are healthy and they are looked at nationwide as a leader in the space,” he added.

Bei is a firefighter for the city of Santa Monica, California and Founder of the Bitcoin 501(c)(4) non-profit Proof of Workforce Foundation who educates workers, unions, pensions and municipalities with education-based Bitcoin adoption. To Bei, the trend of pensions investing in Bitcoin will only continue to gain momentum.

“The $5 billion dollar Houston Firefighters Relief and Pension Fund was actually the first public pension fund to buy Bitcoin back in 2021,” Bei explained.

“The state of Michigan has also made a small $7 million allocation to Bitcoin ETFs. It will be fascinating to see the profile of the pensions that follow, whether they are underwater and mismanaged, or fully funded and operating from a place of strength,” he added.

For Bei, Bitcoin is not just a tool for risk managers and Wall Street-types seeking outperformance, but an opportunity to re-engineer the American city for the benefit of wage earners, not just those in power.

“It’s not just necessarily about municipalities holding bitcoin”, said Bei. “It’s really about activating the Bitcoin community, its innovation, and competing to bring in Bitcoin companies while increasing financial literacy for everyone.”

“If union members and workers learn the history of Bitcoin and why it was created, they are going to understand immediately where Bitcoin fits into the union story and the genesis of organized labor,” said Bei. “Bitcoin was created as a response to the financial system placing its failures on the backs of the wage earner.”

Bei’s non-profit has partnered with the City of Santa Monica to launch the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office, akin to the El Salvador Bitcoin Office, to launch a Peer to Pier Bitcoin Festival in October of this year during Los Angeles Tech Week.

When it comes to other investment allocators taking the plunge with Bitcoin and crypto, Spencer Smith, founder of marketing firm AmpliPhi Digital and Board Member of the Wisconsin Technology Council, sees Wisconsin’s allocation as an extremely important signal to the investment community.

“If I’m an investment manager reporting to a committee, you can point to the state of Wisconsin and say ‘Well, they did it, here’s how they did it, and why I propose that we [allocate to Bitcoin].’ said Smith. “Having that first-mover advantage is important for Wisconsin, [and] it really sets the stage for the rest of the states as well.”

Smith also noted that Bitcoin’s sideways price action, following the meteoric 2021 bull run, has led to more clear conversations amongst Wisconsin legislators as well.

“Now that the hype has died down, it gives us a lot more room to educate on a basis that’s more from an understanding [of] ‘How do we figure this out? Now that there’s ETFs, how do we deploy these? How do you explain compliance?’” he said.

Incentives first. Party second.

Wisconsin has seen a stark divide between its rural and urban voter populations, reflecting a larger national trend of partisan polarization with rural voters predominantly voting Republican and urban voters predominantly voting Democrat. Despite that backdrop, the Red Rock Saloon saw a unique blend of poly-partisanship on display, where Republicans, Democrats and even Independents saw value in courting the crypto voter.

Delivering remarks in the typically deep blue Milwaukee, Joe Schoemann (R), Executive of the rural Washington county, received loud cheers in response to his re-affirmation of crypto as a means of prosperity for the average American.

“I’ve been focused on giving the American Dream to the American citizen,” said Schoemann to the crowd. “Crypto represents that for all of us.”

It’s no secret that the Bitcoin and crypto industry has seen what many view as unwarranted, or at least unwelcome, attacks from the national regulatory apparatus in the last few years, and because of this, the industry is not backing down.

This attitude was echoed by Peter Burgelis (D), City of Milwaukee Alderman.

“I ran for office because the election didn’t go my way and I was pissed,” said Alderman to the crowd

“And when something doesn’t go your way, you can post something dumb on social media or you can put your boots on and run. And I ran and I won,” he added.

“Crypto is important and your vote matters. Get out and vote.”

U.S. Senate candidate Phil Anderson (I) reflected on the fact that Bitcoin and crypto appear to be one of the few issues that can transcend party lines.

“We don’t have representative government anymore,” Anderson told Bitcoin Magazine.

“Lobbyists write the bills and the two-party system makes the representatives vote a certain way. And that goes to what all of Congress will agree to: constantly spending on war, constantly spending without any responsibility and really abusing fiat money,” he added.

“It’s all tied together, and it’s important to support Bitcoin and blockchain as a way of making our government more transparent and more accountable.”

With his campaign slogan of #DisruptTheCorruption, Anderson sees Bitcoin and crypto as both a technological and electoral priority for representative democracy.

The next America Loves Crypto event is in Philadelphia, PA on September 16, followed by a 600-person event in Washington, D.C., culminating in a featured performance by The Chainsmokers to close out the tour.

Attendees may RSVP for the free events via the Stand With Crypto website.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

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Avalanche (AVAX) has had a terrible Q2 2024 by several standards, going by a significant decline in market capitalization coupled with low revenue generation.

Messari’s recent report indicated that AVAX faced a fierce correction after two quarters of growth on the trot. Market capitalization dipped by 40% within the last quarter to stand at $11.6 billion. Well, despite this slump, the ecosystem is still sound as AVAX still has a market cap of $4.5 billion — that’s a 157% surge compared to the same period in 2023.

State of @avax Q2

Key Update: Several partnerships announced, notable ones include @stripe, @homium, and @konami.

QoQ Metrics
– Staked AVAX 6%
– DeFi TVL (AVAX) 11%
– Stables 13%

Read the full report https://t.co/7xsKIj1ml3 pic.twitter.com/0dSZnfXOVE

— Messari (@MessariCrypto) September 13, 2024

Price Forecast Shines Through The Dip

The slump is paining the larger ecosystem, but the future of AVAX seems brighter. In fact, the price forecast of the token will shine hope for investors. AVAX is seen going up 70.68% over the next three months, showing a bounce from the recent prices, analysis from CoinCheckup shows.

This bullish sentiment is bolstered by long-term projections that suggest a 166% growth over the next year. It seems AVAX is poised for recovery, making it an intriguing asset for traders keeping an eye on the market.

Revenue Plunge And On-Chain Activity

Revenue for the Avalanche ecosystem was another source of worry, as its value went down from 176,700 AVAX in Q2 2024 to 96,200 AVAX during the same period. In dollar terms, that translated into $7.5 million going down to $3.5 million.

Pullback is due to slowed activity across different on-chain platforms. However, some analysts believe that a renewed interest in on-chain-based transactions could help revive revenue growth in the short term.

Despite these drops, staking remains robust within the Avalanche ecosystem. There is a 6% increase in the number of staked AVAX tokens due to new measures to boost staking. Staking rewards continue to attract new investors despite a fall in active validator count by 7%. This reflects some unease among validators amidst these market conditions.

Network Stability

Average transaction counts remain mixed. With approximately 11,262 transactions and an average block time of 1.61 seconds, Avalanche is showing stability. More than 2% of the total coins have been sent from the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm wallet. Despite the recorded drops, new initiatives are expected to boost staking and future coin balances.

Interestingly, where the network had an average transaction that depreciated by 57% from 495,000 to 201,500, some protocols on Avalanche refused to abide by this trend. Tether (USDT) and GMX increased transaction volumes, which indicated specific sectors in the system are doing well despite this broad slowdown for the crypto market.

Since AVAX is preparing for a potential rebound from the market, its investors may be able to see renewed interest in the asset in case such forecasted growth in price comes true.

The partial recovery in the transaction volumes for selected protocols also suggests something more is being involved under the surface–a sign that Avalanche might pick up fast once the crypto market picks up. For now, investors are keen enough to observe how AVAX acts in the short and medium terms.

Featured image from Durango.com, chart from TradingView

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Avalanche Revenue Nosedives Over 40% In Q2 – Impact On AVAX Price appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

As the crypto market grapples with significant volatility and uncertainty, expert analyst Miles Deutscher has outlined ten reasons to be optimistic about the year’s fourth quarter (Q4). With Q4 fast approaching, Deutscher emphasizes that a monumental market shift could catch many investors off guard.

Trends And Factors That Could Impact The Crypto Market

In a recent social media post, Deutscher broke down his analysis into seasonality, macroeconomic factors, and crypto-specific elements. 

Deutscher begins by discussing the concept of seasonality, noting that market movements often follow cyclical patterns.

Historically, Q4 has proven to be the strongest quarter for equities, with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 3.8% since 1945 and rising 77% of the time. Bitcoin (BTC) has also shown notable performance during this period, averaging a return of 88.84%.

Deutscher points to the previous two Halving years, where Bitcoin saw gains of 58.17% in 2016 and 168.02% in 2020. He notes that Q3 typically represents a challenging period for BTC, making the upcoming months particularly significant. The period from October to April is often regarded as crypto’s “boom season,” further underscoring the potential for gains.

Moving beyond seasonal trends, Deutscher highlights several macroeconomic factors that could impact the crypto market. With the US federal election just two months away, he suggests a Trump presidency could be more favorable for the market.

However, a Kamala Harris win would not be catastrophic. Current odds from Polymarket indicate a near 50/50 split on the election outcome.

Deutscher also points to cooling inflation rates and the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts as pivotal elements.

The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading is the lowest since February 2021, and a Fed pivot could be imminent. He explains that while rate cuts are often viewed negatively, historical data shows they can be bullish during non-recessionary periods.

Additionally, a potential weakening of the US dollar, resulting from rate cuts, would likely benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin. Deutscher emphasizes that Bitcoin is highly correlated with global liquidity and is forecasted to continue rising into 2025, creating a favorable environment for cryptocurrency.

Bullish On Long-Term Growth Prospects

In the realm of crypto-specific dynamics, Deutscher notes that many retail investors have been flushed out of the market. Metrics such as Google Trends and social engagement indicate a significant drop in retail participation, suggesting that those remaining may be better positioned for potential gains.

The analyst also observes a decline in the Coinbase app’s rankings, which previously surged during market highs. This trend points to a broader sense of apathy among retail investors, but Deutscher believes that such off-side positioning could pave the way for aggressive market expansion.

Furthermore, Deutscher highlights the upcoming repayment of $16 billion to FTX creditors. Unlike the previous cash drain associated with the Mt. Gox refunds to affected users, these paybacks could inject liquidity into the market, with many users likely to reinvest their capital.

Ultimately, it is clear that Deutscher presents a bullish case for Q4, and why it could be a turning point for the crypto market. While he acknowledges that volatility is natural in the digital asset ecosystem, he remains optimistic about significant gains in the medium to long term.

When writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market is trading at $57,880, recording losses of nearly 4% in the 24 hours. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Source: NewsBTC.com

The post Crypto Trends To Watch: Analyst Details 10 Reasons That Could Lead To Massive Q4 Gains appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

South Asian country Bhutan, a Buddhist kingdom on the Himalayas’ eastern edge, has been revealed as a major Bitcoin holder, owning 13,011 BTC worth around $780.49 million, according to a report by Arkham Intelligence. The public data company identified Bhutan’s Bitcoin addresses, marking the first time this information has been publicly shared.

BREAKING: BHUTAN GOVERNMENT’S $750M BTC NOW ON ARKHAM

Bhutan’s Bitcoin holdings are now labeled on Arkham. These holdings come from Bitcoin mining operations carried out by the Kingdom of Bhutan’s investment arm, Druk Holdings.

Arkham is the first to publicly identify these… pic.twitter.com/a8ScUNJJ9F

— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) September 16, 2024

“Bhutan is the 4th largest government with Bitcoin holdings on our platform, with over $750M in BTC,” Arkham stated on X. “Unlike most governments, Bhutan’s BTC does not come from law enforcement asset seizures, but from Bitcoin mining operations, which have ramped up dramatically since early 2023.”

Arkham

Arkham

Bhutan’s Bitcoin mining activities are conducted by the Kingdom’s investment arm, Druk Holdings. According to Arkham, the country has constructed mining facilities at multiple sites, with the largest on the grounds of the defunct Education City project. Arkham further noted, “We were able to corroborate the timeline of on-chain mining activity with time-lapse satellite imagery of facility construction.”

In May of 2023, Bitdeer partnered with Druk Holding & Investments to develop the 100% carbon-free Bitcoin mining operation in Bhutan.

Earlier this year, a Bloomberg report revealed that Druk Holding & Investments and Bitdeer were expanding their mining capacity from 100 to 600 megawatts. Bhutan’s focus on eco-friendly mining is bolstered by its abundant hydropower resources, making it an ideal location for eco-friendly mining.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

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Investors are once again accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) despite previous price declines. Reports indicate that approximately $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from various crypto exchanges, signaling a renewed interest and confidence in the leading cryptocurrency. 

Bitcoin Accumulation Frenzy Resumes

Data from IntoTheBlock has revealed a new accumulation trend amongst Bitcoin investors. According to the financial service platform, roughly $1.29 billion worth of BTC has exited various Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) in the last week. 

This development signals a shift in investors’ sentiment from a previously bearish stance. Just this September, Bitcoin has experienced severe price fluctuations and volatility, raising concerns amongst investors about the cryptocurrency’s future outlook. There have even been reports of liquidation in the market, with analysts noting that September is historically a bearish period for the crypto market. 

With Bitcoin now seeing renewed momentum and experiencing a price surge above the $60,000 mark, investors’ interest in the cryptocurrency has resurged. Based on IntoTheBlock’s report, the majority of Bitcoin outflows, amounting to 12,420 BTC, from crypto exchanges occurred on Tuesday, September 10. During this time, the price of the cryptocurrency had been trading below $60,000, suggesting that investors were accumulating in anticipation of a potential price surge. 

Apparently, Bitcoin holders had begun selling their holdings and taking profits around Friday, September 13. ITB’s data also revealed that 82% of BTC investors are currently making gains, while 13% are in loss.  Interestingly, this accumulation trend has extended its influence towards Bitcoin whales. In an X (formerly Twitter) post on September 14, popular crypto trader, Ash Crypto, unveiled a lofty Bitcoin transaction involving the purchase of 1,062 BTC, valued at $64 million by an anonymous whale. 

With the new Bitcoin addition, the unidentified whale now holds a whopping 10,043 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, based on exchange rates at the time. This move by the whale is also an indication that the market is transitioning into a more bullish and positive sentiment. This trend is common after a market correction or a decline in a cryptocurrency, where prices have reached a perceived low. 

Will BTC’s Price Hit $75,000?

The recent spike in Bitcoin accumulation indicates that investors are now looking favorably at the cryptocurrency, possibly anticipating a price increase in the future. This new trend could potentially trigger a rally to new all-time highs around $75,000 if it continues. 

Earlier this year, when Bitcoin accumulation was at one of its highest, the price of the cryptocurrency had surged to its current all-time high of above $73,000. This bullish development could reoccur as demand and interest in the cryptocurrency surges. 

Although Bitcoin saw a rise above $60,000 over the past week, its price is now down by 2.37% and currently trading at $58,739, according to CoinMarketCap. 

Source: NewsBTC.com

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The debt based monetary system has become quite extreme. On one hand, the US crossed the $35 trillion national debt milestone, placing a $104k burden on every US citizen. On the other hand, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) puts federal expenditures for 2024 at 24.2% of GDP.

This divergence between profligate spending and debt ballooning puts the economy on a narrow path. It is exceedingly unlikely that USG would opt to reduce spending, most of which goes to social programs, entitlements and the military. The latter alone is the key ingredient that backs USD as world currency.

Conversely, this entails another Fed balance sheet expansion, with three 0.25% rate cuts this year already priced in. In turn, non-currency assets like equities, gold and Bitcoin are poised for growth yet again. At the root of this dynamic is the question of information validity.

Just as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to revise down job figures by up to one million between April 2023 and March 2024, the information corruption is visible with central banking itself. If the Federal Reserve can increase M2 money supply by 27% in 2020-21, the money itself loses informational coherence.

It is this why investors then seek equities, gold and Bitcoin. These assets become vehicles of value because currency loses its ability to reliably relay value. The problem is, they are also taxed as a way to subdue the velocity of exiting the central banking system.

This is especially pertinent for Bitcoin, a unique asset that is both a store of value but could be made as a daily transaction driver. The question then poses itself, is a legalistic landscape viable in which low-value Bitcoin transactions are exempt from federal taxation?

Bitcoin’s Usage and Currency Substitution Suitability

To understand the regulatory path forward, we first need to understand how Bitcoin is typically used. After all, contrasting Bitcoin usage against fiat usage paints a clearer picture if Bitcoin can be used as a practical currency, or if it will be perceived as a threat to the current monetary system.

Notwithstanding layer 2 scaling solutions such as Lightning Network, the more BTC is used the greater is the load on the Bitcoin mainnet as miners process transaction blocks. In turn, greater network activity generates greater friction, manifesting as escalating fees for each BTC transaction.

In a developed country like Australia, cryptocurrency usage for payments has been typically minimal.

Image credit: Reserve Bank of Australia

This is predictable as people need strong incentives to move away from existing payment solutions, ones that are already instantaneous and convenient.

At best, BTC transactions mostly revolve around third-parties facilitating BTC transactions using fiat currency. Case in point, Bitcoin onramp platform Strike had to ditch Prime Trust custodian as it eventually filed for bankruptcy. However, Strike still uses banks such as Lead, Cross River Bank, and Customers Bank.

In other words, Bitcoin adoption is attached to online payment systems, through commercial banks which are tied to central banks. The latter have already made money de facto digital, except it is hosted on their ledgers.

Although these institutions can tamper with the money supply, they can do so to facilitate maximum liquidity needed for a debt-based monetary system in which fiat currency is effectively a debt-tracker.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s scarcity makes it less appealing for such use. Gold already showcased this when it was abandoned. Because gold’s supply was not flexible enough to support a growing (debt-based) economy, mainstream economists viewed the gold-backed currency as outdated.

Moreover, Bitcoin is ill-suited as a daily currency driver against feeless alternatives like Nano (XNO) that boast eco-friendly green hosting or potential CBDCs. Rather, Bitcoin’s strength relies on inviolable scarcity, one that serves as a global reserve settlement layer.

While both of these factors, network friction and flexible liquidity, are making Bitcoin less suitable as a proper medium of exchange, it also makes Bitcoin less threatening to the system. But does that mean that Bitcoin’s tax treatment should be tweaked?

The Impact of Current Tax Policies on Bitcoin Usage

On exchanges and platforms like aforementioned Strike, users can freely buy Bitcoin without worrying it will be a taxable event. It only becomes so when BTC is sold for profit. Then, it is subject to capital gains tax for trading.

That’s because the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) designates Bitcoin as property. If Bitcoin is held less than a year before it is sold, holders are subject to ordinary income tax rate ranging from 10% to 37%.

Holding Bitcoin over one year makes it subject to 0% – 20% tax rate, depending on the income level spread across three brackets – 0%, 15% and 20%. In turn, Bitcoin holders have to keep a track of when they bought BTC, at which price, and when they sold it, at which price. The profit difference is taxed as capital gains.

Likewise, swapping Bitcoin for another cryptocurrency is a taxable event, subject to capital gains tax. If BTC is received as payment/earnings, or from mining/staking/airdrops, it is then treated as wages income tax, falling into the 10% – 37% ordinary income tax range.

Alongside buying BTC, holding it or donating it to a registered non-profit, users can also transfer bitcoins from exchanges to wallets without constituting taxable events. Although BTC gifts can also pass as non-taxable upon reception, they would still be subject to the same tax regime later.

In the case of selling Bitcoin at a loss, holders could write it off, limited to $3,000 per year (carriable into next year if exceeded). At the moment, it is still possible to engage in Bitcoin tax-loss harvesting, in which holders can sell BTC at a loss to claim the tax break, and then buy it back.

Unfortunately, this leeway not enjoyed by shareholders could be terminated with the proposed Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act, under Section 1091, “Loss from wash sales of specified assets”.

But even with that tax break still open, it is clear that Bitcoin’s unique nature is not reflected in IRS treatment. The tracking alone of every BTC transaction severely discourages daily use as the mere purchase of a pint of beer would require calculating initial BTC price to see whether it was at a loss or at a gain.

Likewise, merchants would have to hassle with the same tax regime because they technically received property, not money. Combined with the previously mentioned issues of friction and flexible liquidity, this puts an additional burden on mass Bitcoin adoption by incentivizing long-term holding.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s expansion into innovative financial products is impeded as well.

The Tax Burden on Bitcoin Derivatives

Although Bitcoin has become the least volatile cryptocurrency due to its large $1.2 trillion market cap, holders would still prefer to protect themselves against price fluctuations. Derivatives, such as options and futures, make this possible.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s price volatility creates opportunities for traders willing to bet if BTC price will go up (going long) or down (going short). This speculative market important for risk hedging and price discovery is also burdened by the current tax regime.

Once an options contract is exercised, or when it expires, it is subject to capital gains tax. Most traders will create trading alerts to signal the moment BTC price crosses a certain threshold. This helps traders to respond quickly as the loss or capital gain tax is calculated based on the difference between Bitcoin’s fair market value and the strike price. So, staying consistently updated on Bitcoin’s fair market value is a challenge.

Additional difficulty would be to calculate the fair market of another cryptocurrency if it was the vehicle for Bitcoin contract settlement.

But if the contract expires without buying BTC, the capital loss would be regarded as the paid premium for the contract. On the other end of the equation, sellers of Bitcoin options premiums would have to pay capital gains tax as well.

When it comes to futures contracts, 60% of gains/losses are taxed as long-term capital gains/losses, while 40% are taxed as short term capital gains/losses. This is irrespective of futures contract length.

While derivatives markets greatly enhance liquidity and trading volume, the current Bitcoin tax regime discourages broader participation.

The Virtual Currency Tax Fairness Act and Bitcoin

The year 2024 turned into a massive pileup of good news for Bitcoin, barely bothered by the German government’s BTC selloffs. The most recognizable cryptocurrency received an institutional blessing when the Securities and Commissions Exchange (SEC) approved 11 exchange-traded funds (ETFs), having climbed to $48.13 billion AuM as of August 20th.

Not only did Bitcoin ETFs exceed all expectations, but their success served as an endorsement ramp for two presidential candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and former President Donald Trump. Both endorsed the idea of a strategic Bitcoin reserve at the Nashville Bitcoin 2024 conference at the end of July.

Just at that time, senators Ted Budd (R-NC), Krysten Sinema (I-AZ), Cynthia Lummis ( R-WY) and Kirsten Gilibrand (D-NY) re-introduced bill S.4808, the Virtual Currency Tax Fairness Act.

As the bill’s title implies, cryptocurrencies would receive the same tax treatment that is currently reserved for foreign currencies.

Meaning, under the value of $200, cryptocurrency transactions would only be subject to regular sales tax. Although this is still behind El Salvador’s approach of having Bitcoin as legal tender, the bill would immediately lift the barrier for small item purchases in merchant locations.

Previously, one of the co-sponsors, Sen. Cynthia Lummis, noted she is “absolutely certain that Bitcoin will be among them…and perhaps dominant among them”, referring to a future world order based on a basket of global reserve currencies.

As of the latest campaign development, presidential candidate Kamala Harris is in favor of President Biden’s 44.6% capital gains tax, in addition to raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.

The Broader Implications for Bitcoin Adoption

Although to a lesser extent, recession is still on the table moving into 2025. If materialized, this will be another BTC price test, if its risk-off status will be light or heavy. But on the long-term horizon, the structure of mass democracy doesn’t allow for austerity.

And if austerity is not on the horizon, the ballooning of the Fed’s balance sheet is, inevitably eroding USD confidence. It is anyone’s guess if factions vying for power will allow Bitcoin to become a potential exit vehicle on that road.

Making BTC transactions under $200 subject to sales tax, instead of capital gains tax, would go a long way in further ingraining Bitcoin into the financial system. Considering that Blackrock’s IBIT has become the largest Bitcoin ETF, at $17.24B AuM, it is fair to say that Bitcoin’s “threat” perception has been muted, if not abandoned.

Conclusion

Currently priced at above $60k per BTC, it is becoming increasingly clear that only a tiny micro minority will ever own more than 1 BTC. Accordingly, such a small population pool is unlikely to shake the proverbial central banking boat.

What is more likely to form is a parallel, hybrid system in which Bitcoin is both a commodity and a premium currency that is tracked. This is evidenced by the fact that even senators not explicitly anti-crypto want expansive cryptocurrency surveillance.

And Bitcoin’s transparent ledger is ideally suited for it. This is a positive development as privacy-oriented cryptocurrencies like Monero (XMR) have already been ousted from the largest exchange onramps.

Without those headwinds when sailing on a fiat ocean, Bitcoin is free to foster greater financial inclusivity and innovation despite the onramp/offramp barriers, including taxing an appreciating asset. The Virtual Currency Tax Fairness Act is paving the road, but it is likely to receive more tweaks. Specifically, it is yet not clear how transactions amounting to $200 are aggregated. 

This is a guest post by Shane Neagle. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

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