Directional Bias : Example of the morning reversal of 08:00 | TheCryptoDegen发布于币安广场

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方向性偏差：
前面提到的早上 08:00-09:00 反转的示例，以及如何规划。
提醒一下，此统计数据的平均填充率为 85%。
确保标出水平并创建局部偏差，以了解价格在尚未触及的情况下全天可能走向的位置。
#btc70k #StartInvestingInCrypto 

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#Bitcoin cycles repeat. (1) - All time high (2) - Correction and Bear market rally (3) - Bear market (4) - Bear market bottom (5) - Uptrend and consolidation (8) - New All time high These time zones are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a mathematical series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ...). In trading, Fibonacci time zones are created by segmenting the vertical price movement (from a notable low to a notable high) into several equal parts using Fibonacci ratios. Commonly used ratios include 1, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and others. Each ratio represents a distinct time zone.

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Bitcoin On-chain Metrics The database contained within Bitcoin and other digital asset ledgers is transparent, allowing analysts and data providers to inspect the aggregate transactions and volumes across the network. This allows the pricestamping of each coin based on the time when it last moved on-chain. Pricestamping also enables analysts to calculate the average cost basis for all coins in the supply and to determine the proportion of the supply held “in-profit” or “in-loss.” The Realized Cap is an important on-chain metric for Bitcoin as it captures the aggregate value of all coins, priced at the time they last transacted on-chain. In many ways it is analogous to a form of “on-chain market cap.” The Realized Cap is currently at $591 billion, providing a measure of the cumulative capital inflows into Bitcoin over the course of its history. Historically, the spot Market Cap has traded near or below the Realized Cap during late-stage bear markets, signifying that the average coin is held at an unrealized loss. We can also identify periods where the Market Cap diverges higher than the Realized Cap during uptrends, signifying the average coin is holding an increasingly large unrealized profit.

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Bitcoin will outperform stocks for one simple reason Apple stock started with 4.6 million shares, now there’s 16 billion Google stock started with 16 million shares, now there’s 14 billion GameStop had 65 million shares in 2020, now there’s 420 million Bitcoin is the only asset you can’t make more of when the price goes up

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Realized volatility for Bitcoin has historically been elevated during bull markets and declines during periods of reduced attention and adoption. The macro trend for realized volatility can be seen to be lower over time. During the 2017 bull market, rolling realized volatility over three-month to one-year windows reached between 120% and 150% at the peak. The uptrend in 2023-24 has now been in play for just over 18 months and realized volatility has compressed to between 40% and 55%, which is less than half of that seen in the prior two cycles. This aligns with the shallower drawdown profile thus far and speaks to an asset class that is growing in both size and maturity. BTC: Annualized Realized Volatility #ETH_ETF_Approval_23July #Mt_Gox_BTC_Dip

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The 2024 uptrend has also experienced relatively shallow drawdowns compared to previous bull markets. The deepest correction since November 2022 has seen prices pull back by -20.3% from the local high. Previous cycles have experienced much deeper corrections ranging from -25% to -35% in 2016-17 and as deep as -50% to -63% during the 2020-21 cycle. As the Bitcoin market grows in size and sees wider institutional adoption, many analysts expect the profile of volatility, returns and drawdowns to compress over time. #bitcoin☀️ #CPI_BTC_Watch

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