💥尽管 BTC 回升至 60,000 美元以上，但我们仍然可以观察到下跌： - 比特币地址活动 - 转账量和现货市场 | Alphractal发布于币安广场

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💥尽管 BTC 回升至 60,000 美元以上，但我们仍然可以观察到下跌：
- 比特币地址活动
- 转账量和现货市场
- Twitter 情绪
冷漠和沮丧的回归（螃蟹季节）？
作者：Chaîne 教授（推特）

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🎯The level around $46,460 could become the next price floor for Bitcoin in the near future. This value represents the True Market Mean Price, a metric that reflects the network’s weighted average price. We’ve previously discussed the significance of the True Market Mean Price and the powerful AVIV Ratio oscillator. A clear example of this metric’s impact was observed during the "China Dump" in May 2021, when the True Market Mean Price provided support for Bitcoin for two months before the price reached new all-time highs. Since March 2024, we've seen a rapid decline in demand for Bitcoin, while market makers seem to be attempting to drive the price down. In this scenario, a smart DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategy would be to closely monitor the True Market Mean Price, as it has proven to be a more accurate metric than the Realized Price, especially since it excludes coins related to mining.

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🔥Leverage Positions on Binance Reveal True Trader Sentiment! Our Long vs Short Open Interest metric clearly shows that, over time, the dominant positions have been longs. The last time shorts outnumbered longs in the total open interest was in 2022. The Long vs Short Open Interest Ratio measures the proportion of longs to shorts in the open interest. Currently, the ratio is at 51.8% for longs. In 2024, new long positions surged to peaks of 66%, leading to a BTC price dump. A recent value close to 50% suggests a rising interest in shorts, potentially indicating local bottoms if it falls below 50%. The Long/Short Ratio (Accounts) is a well-known metric in the market, demonstrating that when accounts favor shorts, BTC prices often move against this sentiment, leading to liquidations. Currently, 62% of trades on Binance are long positions, while 38% are short. The Long/Short Ratio Dominance metric helps pinpoint precisely when the number of trades is skewed towards longs or shorts. Historically, when traders favor shorts, prices often rise or form local highs, as seen with local tops in 2024. Conversely, excessive long positions tend to lead to price declines or consolidation. These metrics confirm the significant impact of leveraged positions on Binance, offering valuable sentiment insights. Understanding these dynamics can give you an alpha edge in your trading strategies!

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🚀 Altcoins are starting to outperform BTC! The Altcoin Season Index shows a clear trend: Last 30 days: 44 out of 61 altcoins outperformed Bitcoin. Last 90 days: Only 9 out of 61 altcoins outperformed Bitcoin. When we exclude Ethereum and all stablecoins from the Altcoin Dominance analysis, we see a pattern similar to what happened between 2019 and 2020. This could be a prime moment to start accumulating solid projects, as they show greater potential for growth compared to BTC. #Altcoins #defi #ETH #bnb #sol $ETH $SOL $BNB

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🤯Our fractal recognition algorithm identified a period in November with high similarity to the last 15 days, based on a 15-minute timeframe. This strategy requires intensive data processing to detect patterns unnoticed by traders, something traditional platforms can't achieve with such small timeframes. This is truly an ALPHA solution.

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📊 Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is a critical metric for understanding Bitcoin's market dynamics. When we talk about Bitcoin Days, we refer to the number of days a particular Bitcoin remains unspent. For instance, if 1 BTC is held for 100 days, it accumulates 100 Bitcoin Days. When that Bitcoin is eventually spent, those 100 days are "destroyed." This concept, known as Bitcoin Days Destroyed, serves as an indicator of the movement of long-held coins by long-term holders (LTHs), often considered smart money. 🚀 Market Peaks and Long-Term Holders: In the past, significant peaks in Bitcoin's price have been preceded by a sharp increase in Bitcoin Days Destroyed, signaling the distribution of old coins by these LTHs. Notably, in late 2017, 2021, and 2024, we observed this pattern, where LTHs started to offload their Bitcoin holdings, leading to heightened market activity and eventually, price peaks. ⚖️ Supply Adjustment: To account for the growing Bitcoin supply over time, we can apply a supply adjustment multiplier, leading to the Terminal Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed metric. This adjustment ensures that the data reflects more recent conditions in the market, rather than just magnifying older data. 🔍 Key Indicators: When analyzing the 90-day moving average (90DMA) of the Terminal Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed, a value surpassing 18 million serves as a warning signal for Bitcoin's bull cycle. Similarly, when the 200-day moving average (200DMA) exceeds 16 million, it also indicates increased risk. These thresholds have proven to be key indicators of market risk during previous cycles. 📈 Investor Strategy: Monitoring these metrics allows investors to better anticipate potential market tops and take precautionary measures, particularly when these thresholds are breached. X: @Alphractal Telegram Channel: alphractal Telegram Discussion Group: alphractal_group

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