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假下跌?交易员正在关注的最重要的#比特币图表 👇1-12) 当三角形突破时,要小心假下跌。比特币的相对强度已回落至 40%,自 2023 年初以来,这曾三次与反弹尝试有关。我们正在指出一条新的“沙线”,我们可能会改变我们的观点。我们转为看跌的上一条“沙线”是 68,300。 👇2-12) 虽然我们在 2024 年 1 月(正确地)看跌(大多数人会记得这一点),但我们在 1 月 26 日转为看涨。我们 1 月 26 日报告的最后一句话是:“我们会利用任何进一步的下跌来再次开始买入。” 我们的观点也在 CoinDesk(此处)中有所介绍。 👇3-12) 我们早在 2023 年 1 月中旬就使用了新牛市一词,当时较低的通胀推动了反弹。因此,我们关注的是 a) 通胀意外走高和 b) 美联储不再鸽派的时期。正如我们在过去几周指出的那样,情况可能会大不相同,对比特币造成严重后果 - 这就是为什么我们下面的分析可能至关重要。 👇4-12) 在此处阅读完整报告 -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/fake-dip-important-bitcoin-chart-traders-watching #BTC

假下跌?交易员正在关注的最重要的#比特币图表

👇1-12) 当三角形突破时,要小心假下跌。比特币的相对强度已回落至 40%,自 2023 年初以来,这曾三次与反弹尝试有关。我们正在指出一条新的“沙线”,我们可能会改变我们的观点。我们转为看跌的上一条“沙线”是 68,300。

👇2-12) 虽然我们在 2024 年 1 月(正确地)看跌(大多数人会记得这一点),但我们在 1 月 26 日转为看涨。我们 1 月 26 日报告的最后一句话是:“我们会利用任何进一步的下跌来再次开始买入。” 我们的观点也在 CoinDesk(此处)中有所介绍。

👇3-12) 我们早在 2023 年 1 月中旬就使用了新牛市一词,当时较低的通胀推动了反弹。因此,我们关注的是 a) 通胀意外走高和 b) 美联储不再鸽派的时期。正如我们在过去几周指出的那样,情况可能会大不相同,对比特币造成严重后果 - 这就是为什么我们下面的分析可能至关重要。

👇4-12) 在此处阅读完整报告 -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/fake-dip-important-bitcoin-chart-traders-watching

#BTC

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Why This #Bitcoin Correction IS Very Different Than the 3 Previous Ones 👇1-14) Bitcoin has another 20% correction within a larger bull market. @10x_Research is the only crypto research team that has accurately called all three 20% corrections (August 2023, January 2024, and March/April 2024) since the 5th Bitcoin bull market started officially on June 25, 2023. At that point, Bitcoin had made a new one-year high for the first time in a year (see our report from July 2023). 👇2-14) However, this correction is very different, as institutional investors have a risk management approach that differs from most retail traders. Based on our estimates, the average entry price of the US Bitcoin ETF holders is approximately $57,300—potentially even 1-2% higher - a level that Bitcoin prices are approaching fast - as we predicted. 👇3-14) Bitcoin's new one-year high has validated our early January 2023 prediction for the start of a potential new bull market. This positive trend is further reinforced by Bitcoin's proximity to our halving price projection of $63,160 (the actual price of $63,491), which we forecasted on October 28, 2022. 👇4-14) Our 2023 Christmas year-end target of $45,000 was almost achieved (the actual price was $43,613). While we called already on November 28, 2023 (still one of our best TV interviews), for a price target of $57,000 for the post-ETF approval period, we ramped up this target to $70,000 on February 1, 2024, when Bitcoin traded just at $40,000. 👇5-14) This is Bitcoin's first correction with a lot of institutional capital at risk, and there are other factors to consider -> Read the full report here -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-correction-different-3-previous-ones #BTC
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April 19, 2024: Why Bitcoin May Fall to $52,000 https://10xresearch.co/videos/ Summary: The primary driver for the recent Bitcoin price rally was the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs, which has now dried up over the past 4-5 weeks. The market internals have become weaker, with funding rates decreasing significantly, indicating a lack of speculative demand. The upside drivers for Bitcoin are no longer present, and the market is facing a risk-off environment, leading to a potential correction to the mid-50,000s. The impact of the Bitcoin halving event may not be as bullish as previously expected, as the miners are likely to sell their inventory after the halving, offsetting the reduced supply. Macro factors, such as high inflation and interest rate hikes, have a more significant impact on Bitcoin’s price than the halving event itself. Bitcoin has not performed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, as it has sold off during these events, suggesting a more significant overhanging issue. The drying up of ETF inflows is a crucial signal, as it indicates a lack of demand from retail investors, who are typically the target audience for these products. 10x Research has taken a cautious stance, selling their tech stock positions and remaining on the side-lines with Bitcoin, waiting for the market to stabilize before potentially re-entering. A potential correlation exists between the Bitcoin futures funding rate compression and the reduced ETF inflows, suggesting a potential offset of margin trading positions. The speculative bubble in the altcoin market, particularly in Korea, has also deflated, with trading volumes returning to average volumes. #BTC
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