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The Green Investor

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新年快乐，大家好！

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No man stands in the front of a train, convinced the train will stop, unless he has several reasons to believe the train will stop. I have several methodological reasons to believe BTC will make an U-turn and fall. It's not easy to go against the majority and yell that something's wrong, but if my theory and my gut back up the idea of a reversal, I will stand for my reversal, even if I get hit by this train on the face, lol.

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Well then, we're pushing to the Last Point of Support. This scheme will be invalid the moment BTC surpasses 101k. While this doesn't happen; I stand on BTC short, SL 101k. The declining volume also backs up the theory this is a bull trap. BTC.D has to fall below 56%; otherwise, it will tend to increase.

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Essa é uma excelente pergunta. É natural pensar que não vai cair por ser janeiro de um último ano de alta, antes de um bear market. Porém ainda há muito tempo (28 dias) antes do mês acabar. Deste modo, é totalmente possível que o valor venha a capturar 86k, talvez até mais baixo, e retorne para 100k para terminar o mês no positivo. Eu poderia até mesmo dizer que toda essa euforia, todo esse ânimo do varejo, está servindo de contra-parte para a distribuição dos institucionais. No entanto, caso o bitcoin venha mesmo a quebrar os 100k, venha a subir até para uns 108k novamente, aí nesse caso, está desconsiderada a chance de ocorrer uma correção aos 86k nesse mês; assim como estaria desconsiderado o Wyckoff na escala macro.

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With that shown, it's a good time to take altcoin profits, BTC long profits, and start setting up some short positions. You don't have to close all of them; some will do. Just be aware that if BTC ChoCHs and commits to a fall, we're retracing all this progress and alts die.

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$BTC update. About three days ago I claimed that if we were to get a bullish breakout from 90k, that would mean 100k. We got the bullish breakout and here we are, $97600. Now for the update: I don't think this will actually reach 100k from here. While not that far away, on the 1d scale, there's a clear Wyckoff Distribution going on, and the price shouldn't surpass the last point of supply, at exactly 100k, for the structure to be valid. This way, if the institutions are now pushing for Phase E, after an UTAD, the price should naturally fall from here, hard, all the way to 86k. It's a good opportunity to short with SL at 101k.

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