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Alphractal
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看跌
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今日在币安的比特币永续合约价格比现货价格低28美元,显示出负基差。这反映出可能的看跌情绪,增加的空头头寸使期货价格下跌。交易者可能在预期价格进一步下跌,但这也可能为现货和永续市场之间的套利创造机会。
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The indicator measuring the total balance of cryptocurrencies held by short-term holders (up to one month) has risen. Historically, this increase often signals basic euphoria, which tends to coincide with local tops in Bitcoin's price. This reflects heightened speculative activity or the entry of new investors into the market, potentially leading to temporary overbought conditions. Currently, there are over 3.19 million addresses in this category, representing approximately 5.9% of all Bitcoin addresses on the network. However, when analyzing historical data, it becomes clear that the indicator is still far from reaching the high levels observed in previous cycles, suggesting that the market, despite the increase, has not yet reached a point of extreme euphoria. Alphractal
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Bitcoin's Realized Capitalization has reached the same resistance level observed in 2019 and March 2024. This is highlighted by the Long Term Realized Cap Impulse, which analyzes movements in realized capitalization over extended periods, offering insights into supply and demand dynamics. By focusing on longer time frames, this metric allows for a deeper understanding of how long-term trends influence market behavior and price movements. It emphasizes the impact of significant capital flows and helps identify patterns that may not be evident in short-term analyses. In this way, the Long Term Realized Cap Impulse provides an innovative approach to analyzing demand from an Onchain perspective. On the other hand, the Realized Cap Impulse measures shorter-term oscillations and indicates that market euphoria has yet to materialize. This suggests that either BTC movements have already been significant over the past year, or there is still room for growth. A decline in this metric could negatively impact the price, while an increase signals a more positive and volatile market outlook. Alphractal
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Bitcoin reached the main liquidation level of the last 7 days as it approached $100K. Over the past 30 days, two important regions should remain on traders' radar. Above, we see the $110K level as the primary liquidation level for shorts, while near $90K, it would trigger significant liquidations of longs. Always consider entering a short position when shorts are being liquidated on exchanges. Conversely, entering a long position when longs are being liquidated can be a good strategy for day trading or swing trading. Alphractal
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🚨 Signs of Massive Sell-Offs by Long Term Holders: What Does It Mean for Bitcoin? Two on-chain metrics are signaling significant activity from Long Term Holders (LTH), indicating potential massive sell-offs: 🔍 Reserve Risk Indicators These include metrics like VOCDD, MVOCDD, Reserve Risk, and MVOCDD Signal. They evaluate Bitcoin’s sustainability by comparing its price to the average cost basis of LTH: VOCDD and MVOCDD: Measure the velocity of coin destruction. Reserve Risk: Assesses whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold. MVOCDD Signal: Acts as a market peak signal, indicating when Bitcoin might be nearing a top. 🔍 Coin Days Destroyed Terminal Adjusted (CDD Terminal Adjusted) This metric refines the traditional CoinDays Destroyed by factoring in Bitcoin’s current circulating supply. It offers a clearer view of LTH behavior, highlighting significant coin movements or inactivity, providing valuable insights into market cycles and investor trends. What Does This Mean? Historically, LTH take advantage of Bitcoin’s price rallies to realize profits, as their average acquisition cost is very low. This behavior often creates local resistance levels that can take weeks or even months to break again. Even if BTC continues to rise in the near future, the data suggests that LTH are no longer as interested in holding. This could shape market dynamics in 2025. However, it’s important to note: These metrics don’t define a market cycle top but are excellent tools for sentiment analysis. Learn more about how on-chain metrics are shaping Bitcoin’s future at Alphractal 🚀 Understand the market, make informed decisions.
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Analysis of the Funding Rate and Bitcoin Price Movement The aggregated Funding Rate reflects the balance between buyers and sellers in perpetual futures contracts. When the Funding Rate rises significantly, it usually indicates a predominance of long positions, signaling market optimism. However, the current behavior shows that after the Funding Rate increased and coincided with a price rise, Bitcoin has started to decline, although the Funding Rate remains positive. This scenario may indicate: 1. Excessive optimism: Many traders might have opened long positions during the price surge, pushing the Funding Rate higher, but the lack of additional buying pressure resulted in a correction. 2. Selling pressure: The price retracement could be a result of profit-taking or the entry of short positions taking advantage of the elevated Funding Rate. 3. Short-term support: The still-positive Funding Rate suggests that the market retains some level of confidence, but it’s crucial to watch whether it continues to decline, which could signal a shift in sentiment. Conclusion: The price drop, despite the positive Funding Rate, suggests caution. A persistently high Funding Rate may expose the market to liquidations, while stabilization or reversal of the Funding Rate should be monitored to anticipate future moves. Last days to use the UPDATE coupon and get 10% off on our Pro plan!
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