Market Analysis 10.31
From on-chain data, stablecoins have been in an inflow state from October 24 to 30,
but have not broken through the previous high of the last two months,
funds have all flowed into BTC, with no spillover effect to altcoins yet.
From October 28 to today, over 10,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges.
It seems that BTC is still set to rise, but how much of a pullback will it experience?
The cost for whales and major ETF funds is at £55,000, with the current price at £72,000, currently up 30%.
Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 index has averaged an annual increase of over 12%.
If the BTC price reaches £82,000, they will have profits of over 50%,
equivalent to achieving more than five times the stock market index increase in one year.
It's estimated that they will start to take profits soon.
So if it rises close to £82,000, BTC may experience a significant pullback.
Currently, from on-chain data, BTC is still flowing out, so the risk is not high.
Regarding the U.S. elections, this year's presidential election in the U.S. may be the closest in history. The two candidates are evenly matched, with polls showing similar support rates in seven swing states, and all differences are within the margin of error, making it hard to predict who will win or lose.
The small non-farm payroll data released last night recorded an increase of 233,000, the largest since July 2023.
Slightly negative, strong employment impacts the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
PCE will be announced tonight at 8:30, and non-farm data will be released tomorrow night at 8:30.
If the non-farm data in the next two days does not create any significant negative impact,
BTC may gain momentum and could break through £74,000.