The results of the US election on November 4th are imminent, let's briefly discuss the impact of two possible outcomes on the cryptocurrency market.
Outcome One: Trump is elected.
1. The new Republican platform will become more important: ending the US government's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, defending the rights to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining, self-custody, and trading freedom.
2. Trump will appoint a new SEC chairman, with three candidates who are favorable to the crypto market: Dan Gallagher (Chief Legal Officer of Robinhood, which fully embraces the crypto space), Chris Giancarlo (former CFTC chairman, nicknamed the 'father of crypto'), and Hester Peirce (one of the current five SEC commissioners, nicknamed 'crypto mom').
3. The DOGE department will be officially established, with budget cuts likely to attract negative attention, bringing Dogecoin's exposure to a new level.
4. Short-term benefits for Trump-themed cryptocurrencies will be fully realised.
Outcome Two: Harris is elected.
1. Steps towards regulatory openness for the crypto market will not be as significant. Gary Gensler may transition to Treasury Secretary, and among the new SEC chairman candidates, only Chris Brummer is crypto-friendly, but with a background as a law professor, his approach in office may resemble Gensler's.
2. Trump may face imprisonment, Musk could be targeted, and companies in the crypto space that support Trump could also be under scrutiny, especially those that have aligned with influential figures out of fear of SEC actions, such as Kraken and Gemini. The aforementioned related cryptocurrencies may face significant risks.
3. Harris's climate policies are likely to negatively impact high-energy-consuming Proof of Work mining.
4. Overall, this should present another buying opportunity similar to the 1994 market dip. After all, the Democratic Party and Harris's major backer, BlackRock, are still interested in expanding Bitcoin ETFs and tokenization.