The trend of Bitcoin is quite normal; in recent days, even when encountering sudden situations, it quickly rebounds. In fact, the entire bull market trend is reasonable; the only unreasonable aspect is the performance of altcoins, which can be discussed later.
This pullback did not hit the estimated 60,000-65,000 USD from a few days ago, and it may be difficult to return to that position again. Time does not support another large pullback unless an accident occurs.
Bitcoin rebounded twice today, breaking through 68,000; the performance of altcoins cannot be considered good overall, only stable. During the first breakthrough, there was a slight increase, but when Bitcoin pulled back, altcoins overreacted.
This type of market generally retraces to a small support level of Bitcoin to buy altcoins with stop-loss support, which may have a better cost-effectiveness than buying spot, as many altcoins have already touched support positions several times.
Of course, this is a good choice for those who are unwilling to buy altcoins in the short term.
Pay close attention to the market at the beginning of next month; personally, I expect a short bull run. According to common sense, even if there are risks, a big bullish candle will likely form.
Next, let's discuss an event that happened a couple of days ago.
According to foreign media reports, US regulatory agencies and prosecutors are investigating the cryptocurrency company Tether for allegedly violating sanctions and anti-money laundering regulations. The potential crackdown by the federal government on Tether could cause unprecedented upheaval in the digital asset industry.
Tether is the issuing company of Tether (USDT), and Tether is a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, designed to be a digital alternative to the US dollar, with a market value of about $120 billion.
By market capitalization, Tether (USDT) is the third largest cryptocurrency in the world and has the largest daily trading volume. In markets where traditional currencies cannot be used for transactions, Tether has become a substitute for the US dollar.
Around the same time Israel attacked Iran, it was reported that US regulatory agencies were investigating Tether.
There are analyses in the market suggesting that if Tether has problems, it will have a significant impact on the market.
Wang Ge thinks it's like a conspiracy theory.
I remember that Circle, the parent company of USDC, has also been investigated for similar accusations, and Tether has been investigated similarly.
From the perspective of American interests, the symbolic significance of the investigation is greater than the actual one. They wouldn’t investigate Tether and Circle as thoroughly as Binance because overdoing it and causing these two companies to collapse would backfire, especially with the elections approaching; regulators are hesitant to play with fire.
Tether is hard to collapse because its scale is too large.
Looking again, if the so-called Tether collapses, it will have a huge impact on the market. How big will that impact be?
First of all, the premise is that the probability of 'Tether collapsing due to an investigation' is extremely, extremely small, possibly even less than 0.0001%. In fact, in addition to the US company's USDT, there are also stablecoins from Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and other regions in the market. Even if the US is foolish, they wouldn’t kill Tether, or else it would lead to capital outflow.
Now, let's make an assumption: if USDT collapses due to an investigation, it would directly lead to:
1. If the USDT exchange rate collapses, tens of millions of American users will be affected, including institutions and capital, leading to various crises for regulatory agencies and facing large-scale lawsuits.
2. If USDT decouples, assuming it is a slow decoupling, funds will flow towards: direct liquidation, other stablecoins, Bitcoin, and other altcoins. Apart from user losses and panic, they do not directly constitute the selling of Bitcoin and altcoins.
In the end, USDT itself is just a medium and does not represent cryptocurrency. The impact of the US's previous attempts to regulate cryptocurrency may be greater than the investigation of Tether.
Just a day before the weekend, BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings had reached 400,000 coins.
For capital and large holders holding Bitcoin, if Tether has problems, it does not affect the value of their Bitcoin holdings. Therefore, analyzing it in reverse can also clarify that the value of Bitcoin will not be manipulated by any individual or company.
Note: Market predictions carry risks; this analysis represents personal opinion.
