A couple of days ago, a friend messaged me asking: How can I buy those coins that will be listed on Binance in advance?
This is a very good question because many people know that if a token can be listed on mainstream exchanges (like Binance, OKX, Coinbase, etc.), it will directly serve as a catalyst for the token's price increase. The problem is that this kind of insider information may only be available to a very small number of internal exchange personnel or related interest groups in advance. If I could accurately know which coin will be listed on Binance next, I would definitely rush to buy it myself. Such coins are likely to yield substantial returns on the first day of listing.
Although I can't answer this question that almost everyone wants to know, since we've mentioned it, let's discuss it from a few other angles briefly.
1. Does listing on Binance definitely mean it will rise?
From the general public's intuitive feelings or historical data, as long as a token can be listed on Binance, it is basically secure. For MemeCoins, it is even more like a carp jumping over the dragon gate, which will inevitably bring a wave of price increase because being listed on Binance means an increase in liquidity (thanks to Binance's large user base), enhanced trust and recognition, and a dedicated team or market makers to promote or incubate it, etc.
However, this does not mean that once a token is listed on Binance, it can maintain an upward trend indefinitely. In different historical periods, we may also discover some different aspects, such as:
During the last bull market, taking the period from September 2020 to November 2021 as an example, the main narrative in the crypto market at that time was DeFi and various high APR projects. During that bull market, the most intuitive feeling was that you didn't need to understand too many project fundamentals and token economics; as long as a project had the opportunity to be listed on Binance, you could just buy blindly and make money.
Since the beginning of this bull market cycle, the main narratives have changed significantly, especially since around March last year (2023), with the ARB airdrop igniting the market. Various narratives have started to enter a relatively early explosive stage, such as Layer2, airdrops, AI, memes, BRC20, and various hot concepts have begun to attract increasing attention and discussion.
Soon after, around May of last year, RDNT began to attract people's attention again with the reintroduction of Binance Launchpool (the previous Launchpool was in 2022). From that point on, in a certain sense, it seemed to indicate the imminent start of this bull market, but at that time, not many people had noticed.
However, as time progresses, Binance's increasingly frequent listing speed seems to slowly cause more dissatisfaction among people, until May and June of this year when it began to ferment within the community. Many openly complained that Binance's frequent new listings were just cash grabs, and I remember that He Yi (Binance co-founder) even wrote a long article to respond to this matter, as shown in the figure below.
Of course, we can't blame everyone for complaining, as some new coins, after being listed on Binance, indeed disappointed many people. For example, CATI, which many people bought, started to decline in price from the second day after listing, as shown in the figure below.
This may lead to some people, especially those who have experienced the previous two bull markets, feeling very dissatisfied; they seem to be trapped right from the start because, in their historical experiences, tokens listed on Binance should not exhibit such performance during bull markets.
In fact, the above issues may be caused by various reasons. Each bull market has similarities, but there will certainly be differences, and we cannot completely replicate historical experiences. Especially this year (2024), with the successive approval of BTC and ETH ETFs, the crypto market has already undergone significant changes in its development logic. In previous bull markets, any token that could be listed on Binance would generally make money if bought during the bull market. However, as this current bull market has progressed, we should not view this matter as so absolute anymore. We may need to sort through and view this matter separately.
First, targeting projects with TGE on Binance.
TGE, which stands for Token Generation Event, can be understood here as projects that are launched on Binance, such as DOGS, CATI, HMSTR. Whether these projects can perform well and sustainably after listing is one aspect of being launched on Binance; more importantly, it also depends on the narrative ability of the project and the timing of the listing (market timing). If both the narrative ability and timing are quite perfect, then tokens listed on Binance will certainly continue to have buyers.
Secondly, projects that have already undergone TGE before listing on Binance.
Tokens we are familiar with, such as PEPE, WIF, TON, RON, had actually undergone TGE before being listed on Binance. This means that these projects had already gone through a period of accumulation and development before being listed on Binance. Some projects have also established relatively complete products and community foundations, and such tokens inherently possess a certain grassroots foundation (liquidity and trading volume). The continuation of such projects onto Binance can be seen as a win-win choice for both the project parties and Binance.
Therefore, for those who are still very obsessed with chasing potential projects that might get listed on Binance, our advice is that you might need to slightly change your mindset. It’s not that any coin that might get listed on Binance will definitely make you money; you may also need to differentiate and conduct a comprehensive evaluation based on the narrative ability of the corresponding projects and the current market timing (such as considering Bitcoin's trends, macroeconomic environment, etc.).
2. I heard that Binance charges listing fees?
I'm not exactly sure about this, as I haven't been involved in the listing process on Binance myself. What I mention below are all rumors or hearsay, so just take a quick look:
- The latest coin listed on Binance a couple of days ago (October 22) is SCR (Scroll), and it is reported that the project party spent $100 million on listing fees to jump the queue.
- For projects listed on Binance, it is said that the project parties need to hold and stake BNB worth $5 million, plus pay a fee of 8% of the total token supply.
In short, there are basically two types of coins that want to be listed on Binance: one requires the project party to invest a large amount of funds to be listed on Binance, mostly those with high FDV tokens, where ordinary retail investors are likely to just buy at the top. The other is that the tokens themselves already have a relatively good foundation, and Binance also needs to seize this traffic.
Of course, some people believe that projects funded by Binance/Coinbase/Paradigm/A16Z, etc. (i.e., projects with Binance investment backgrounds or financial strength) have the highest expectations of being listed on Binance. This can also be considered a direction to explore, and interested parties can research and position themselves accordingly, as shown in the figure below.
3. How is the overall performance of tokens listed on Binance?
Among all the tokens listed on Binance since 2024, if you had bought them directly upon listing, all but six tokens are currently in a loss state. The highest increase is NEIRO, which has risen 379% since its listing on September 16. Additionally, over half of the tokens have dropped by at least 30-80%, with the highest drop being AEVO, which has fallen 88% since its listing on March 13, as shown in the figure below (table data is current as of the writing of this article).
In short, the price increase or decrease of any project (token) is determined by various factors. Being listed on Binance is just one of the catalysts; although, from a performance perspective, all tokens listed on Binance will experience relatively significant price increases on the first day, this does not mean that this upward trend can continue. We also need to consider the current market timing, the fundamentals of the project, and its narrative ability, etc.
Many people tend to chase new coins rather than old ones, so they sometimes pursue those that have potential or are newly listed on exchanges (like Binance). In fact, we have also mentioned this notion of chasing new instead of old in previous articles, but everything needs to be viewed dialectically; otherwise, one can easily fall from one extreme into another.
Overall, however, participating in projects that have already been listed on Binance is certainly much better from a risk perspective than various DEX projects that may rug pull at any time. We cannot only accept price increases while being unable to accept declines; if we cannot withstand market volatility (the price fluctuations of the tokens you purchase), then we should not participate in any trading.
We will conclude this session here; more articles can be viewed through the homepage of Hua Li Hua Wai. The above content is merely personal perspectives and analyses and should only be used for learning records and communication purposes, not constituting any investment advice.
