Short-term speculation is a thousand times more fun than investing.
I remember during the craze for inscriptions, I would look for various products to Mint on Twitter. There were inscriptions, there were NFTs, and as long as you paid a bit of gas, you could earn a lot.
There are projects with dozens, hundreds, and even thousands of times returns, but two stand out in my memory. One is OrdiRocks, with a Mint cost of 5U that later rose to 500U each; the other is the inscriptions on NEAR, which yielded as much as two thousand times.
Including past airdrops like uni, op, arb, and the Xpet game, if not for being hacked and having my wallet drained, I would have made quite a bit, including PEPE and ORDI as well.
But these things are not the same as investing. Making money from these speculations is not a pure goal; it's just for fun, enjoying the thrill of competing with others. Of course, making money is great, but you must also be able to afford losses. Essentially, this is not much different from gambling in Macau.
Especially with the current MEME, it feels more like a hunting game. Everyone is prey in a zero-sum market, and one misstep could lead to elimination, which is very exciting. However, the reasons for speculation are significantly influenced by the viewpoints of others in the market, so strategies need to be adjusted quickly. Skilled individuals like Soros can also profit, but it’s very tiring and hard to learn.
Since last month, I've also been playing a lot of MEME, making a lot of money and losing a lot of money at times. Theoretically, I could delve deeper into research to achieve higher multiples. For example, I could set up a crawler to monitor the flow of smart money addresses, or use AI to buy and sell faster.
But I think this takes too much effort, and it seems I earn less than if I just held Bitcoin and Ethereum. My cost for Bitcoin is over 6K, and for Ethereum it's about 0.2K. If I play with MEME, I have to be able to afford the losses, so I will definitely go light. If I invest 100U and make 100 times that, it would be 10,000U; how could that compare to a full position that increases tenfold, especially with BTC and ETH likely to rise even higher in the future?
Long-term investing is something entirely different; it requires deep research into the industry, enough patience, and a certain amount of capital. Duan Yongping said this is like playing a long game. You really need to consider 'value', find something that you believe can increase long-term and consistently, then buy it when you think the price is at its low.
There are many things to think about, but the operation is very tedious. Most of the time, buying in means you don’t have to worry about it. Compared to speculation, investing is a calming thing, because you don’t have to engage in PVP with others, nor pay attention to the market noise. When you have money and see BTC drop significantly, just buy some; it's that simple.
So, big holders of Bitcoin are actually reluctant to play MEME because they are already very calm and don’t want to engage in thankless tasks. Participating in MEME is simply a gamble to make a small profit.
Still, it's worth saying that taking a gamble isn't wrong, but don’t confuse gambling with investing, and don’t indulge in unreasonable dreams. For example, there are now over a thousand AIMEME launched from pump.fun, but only about three have made it big, with goat at 700 million and the rest like Long Two and Long Three at several tens of millions.
Expanding the scope, up to now, there have been millions of MEMEs, and after experiencing three bull markets, only one or two super MEMEs have emerged in each bull market. So, I ask, among those who have learned from the past and never engaged in PVP with others, why would they think that the MEME they buy is a super MEME?
Once you start dreaming about this, you'll end up PUAing yourself, finding all sorts of reasons to value a dogecoin, treating it as 'value investing', and hoping it will multiply a thousand times. Even if you use money you can afford to lose, from a probabilistic standpoint, multiplied by quantity, that money is also at risk of loss.
In the casino, you must follow the rules, put up money you can afford to lose, play, and once you lose it all, just accept it. If you earn, take out your capital and play with the profits; this way, you can play longer, and who knows, you might just stumble upon a big win and then leave immediately.
However, this is also quite difficult. If investing in Bitcoin means you can make a decent amount by being in the top 20%, then in a casino, you need to be in the top 0.1% to make money. This is not just about difficulty but also lacks a methodology.
Now, when people play MEME, many seriously analyze this logic and that reasoning, claiming it’s very valuable, but that’s just pseudo-logic. To put it bluntly, if you could really make money using that logic, you would have achieved financial freedom long ago and wouldn’t be wasting time arguing about it.
When I can make money by crafting inscriptions, I really don't want to talk about it. If I have time to tweet, I can just craft some inscriptions. Since I have to be responsible for paid reach, I will mention new things I discover in the paid reach.
Some insights are hard to articulate; short-term speculation is inherently easier for those who know fewer strategies, making it easier to profit. Investing is the opposite; you have to make a big deal out of it so that everyone knows it has value.
In the end, it simplifies to 'buy Bitcoin', which often feels like a low-skill activity, so people don’t really buy it.
Having talked a lot, in summary, MEME is very popular right now, and there are indeed opportunities to make money. Just like in a casino, when there are more people, the money of fools will increase, and it is possible to earn. But still, remember a few points:
1. You may not necessarily be the smart one; PVP doesn't guarantee you can outplay everyone else. So, you should only use money you can afford to lose and play primarily for the thrill rather than for profit. Of course, if you have enough PVP skill, then I’m not saying anything because you've already made a lot of money.
2. Money made in a casino is luck, not your ability. Don't try to summarize your successful experiences, or you'll find that this experience will cause you to lose money at the next table.
3. Money set aside for gambling should be considered lost once it's gone; don’t think about getting it back. Conversely, when you do make money, learn to withdraw your capital and let the profits keep playing; this way, you can play longer, and your chances of hitting a big win will increase.
4. You must have something that can make money in the long term, whether it’s a job or a dollar cost averaging Bitcoin account. Gains and losses come from the same source. If you stay too long in the casino, even with a 90% win rate, you'll eventually lose. LTCM is a good example of long-term capital management; they were some of the smartest people in the world, including Nobel laureates, but what was their final outcome?
5. If you're going to play, do it yourself. Don’t join too many groups. You can learn from investing, but you can't learn anything from speculation.
That's all I want to say. Remember, speculation is a thousand times more fun than investing, but in the end, it is investing that will truly make you happy.