Today's prediction from the Financial Times is simply outstanding: If Harris wins, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates by two more 25 basis points at the end of this year and then three times in the first half of next year, each by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to the 3.5%-3.75% range. Little do they know, Trump is much more aggressive than Harris when it comes to rate cuts, and we might even see another 50 basis point cut by the end of the year.
In the evening, the Bank of Canada announced its latest interest rate decision, deciding to accelerate the rate cut by 50 basis points after cutting rates three times by 25 basis points this year. The current federal funds rate in Canada is 3.75%. After the first rate cut by the US, countries that could not withstand it have accelerated their rate cuts, while regions that previously held firm have begun their unique easing journey.
Therefore, compared to the currently established waterproof trend, a brief market decline does not need to cause excessive psychological concerns. It can be said that all current pullbacks are psychological shocks from the market makers before the new highs. The more cheap chips, the better; it all depends on who breaks the support first.
Yesterday, Bitcoin's spot ETF saw a net outflow of 87.9 million dollars, while Ethereum's spot ETF saw a net inflow of 11.94 million dollars. The data for Bitcoin's spot ETF has begun to slow down after a massive inflow in the early stages, consistent with the current market's high-level pullback. However, looking at the cyclical data, the activity of off-market funds remains very high; as long as there’s no change in the macro environment, Bitcoin's brief link adjustment and continuation to new highs will not be in doubt.
In recent days, with the market warming up, our focus on this bull market and brainstorming with industry leaders has been quite extensive, and I feel like my brain cells are not enough.
Since March this year, the risks in the secondary market have been evident, as the unlimited unlocking of large VC tokens has dragged down many quality projects. Unlike the last bull market where projects started with valuations of only a million or ten million dollars, many projects in this bull market have valuations exceeding one billion, and in a fully circulating state, there’s basically no opportunity for all projects to explode simultaneously. Therefore, even if the altcoin season comes, it will be hard for altcoins to rise uniformly like in the last bull market.
Uncle's logic is that the altcoin season will definitely come, and it may even explode within a single quarter. Our strategy, especially for altcoins that were deeply in the red by over 50%, is to sell decisively after breaking even, even if they continue to surge after reaching the cost line. Every position not adhering to trading discipline must bear sufficient costs.
Recent DEX projects have once again ignited the market; AI meme concept coins have surged over a thousand times in less than half a month, with current market capitalization breaking seven hundred million dollars, rivaling ORDI. As more and more DEX tokens break the one hundred million dollar mark before listing on CEX, it can be anticipated that this bull market will rapidly develop along the path of decentralization. I will share a document with everyone tomorrow detailing the participation and opportunities.
The market has been moving slowly recently, and there won't be any significant fluctuations before the election. So if there’s a pullback, don’t hesitate to average down or buy at the bottom; on-chain data tells me this wave might be the last adjustment before a new high.
BTC: Bitcoin released a four-hour pullback path a couple of days ago, with the first bottom around 66800 points, adjusting up and down around this support within 24 hours. The current divergence hasn’t completely resolved. If a deep washout is needed, the technical second support will go to the 63000-64000 point range; this range can be anticipated but don’t focus on it entirely. A break of the upper 68000 points means the termination of the previous rebound trend; it's time to brew reversal sentiment. Overall, the trend is a continued range consolidation on the four-hour chart, digesting divergences, with the hourly level trending bearish, while the larger daily trend remains bullish. So if spot positions showed divergence signals in the previous days at high levels, just wait for support to accumulate, and keep holding long-term.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin's downward movement, with short-term support at 2500 points. Currently, there are no signs of a reversal in the exchange rate, and the independent market for Ethereum still needs observation.
Altcoins: During the day, a sudden delisting of UNFI caused a nearly 30% drop, reversing the trend. The next steps will not involve speculation. CFX and SEI show no structural issues on the daily chart; just pay attention to the short-term pullback risks. Altcoin trends overall have a much larger drop compared to Bitcoin, and they are all near short-term support; watch for short-term spike situations.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 71 for the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
