The U.S. stock market was closed on Wednesday, and there was no outflow from spot ETFs such as Grayscale, and the currency market rebounded slightly. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose slightly, but the hidden worries of a U.S. recession still linger.

1: Claudia Sahm, the inventor of the U.S. recession indicator, recently warned that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and his colleagues are "playing with fire." She pointed out that if the Fed does not take a gradual interest rate cut now, it may put the U.S. economy into a contraction.

2: Compared with the cottage, although the big cake has fallen less in the past few days, the short-term trend is still weak, and the big cake will be below 72,000 for quite some time.

At least it is unlikely to stand at 72,000 by the end of June, and the hope is placed on mid-July and August.

Given that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is still 50%, even if there is no interest rate cut in September, the first interest rate cut will be postponed to November before and after the election. The time is postponed, and the closer to the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the more likely it is that the big cake will reach a new high in the third quarter.