Let me first say the conclusion: 1-2 times

I always think that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, but they have to. They want to cut interest rates, whether it is the calls from citizens under high interest rates, the pressure from the upcoming election, or something else, they have reasons to cut interest rates.

Just because they have reasons to cut interest rates doesn't mean they have reason to do so. The Federal Reserve had already begun releasing signals of a rate cut in January and February of this year, but until last month, inflation had been rebounding and the job market was strong. How could the Fed tolerate the fact that non-farm payrolls occasionally increase by more than 300,000? You have to know that rate cuts are meant to stimulate the economy.

High inflation means high consumer enthusiasm and a good labor market, which means Americans have the ability to consume. So if you are stimulating consumption, why doesn't inflation take off?

However, over the past month, some U.S. data have shown signs of recession, including PCE, CPI, and non-farm payrolls. Although the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates directly, because this is the basis for their rate cut, it would be easy for them to explain if they really cut interest rates by saying that the current data shows signs of recession.

But what are the signs of a recession, what is a real recession, and can just one month reflect a recession?

So if we cut interest rates without paying any attention to anything, what will we do if inflation rebounds? Should we continue to shrink the balance sheet? Or should we consider raising interest rates?

This will definitely affect the credibility of the Federal Reserve. It is like investors buying when the market goes up and buying when the market goes down. It is the same fence-sitting behavior and has no meaning.

So if we are rational, we must see more data, that is, at least three consecutive months of recession, before we can cut interest rates. It is actually very difficult to have a recession for three months. By the end of the year, if inflation rebounds, then there is no need to talk about cutting interest rates this year.

This probability is like throwing a dice. I say 1-2 I win 3-6 you win. Can you guarantee that you can win three to five times in a row? #BTC