BTC showed another unsuccessful test of the breakdown of an important resistance, a downtrend from ATH.

Yesterday in a big review for the beginning of the week we pointed out three important resistances on the way to working out the full goal of the P&P and updating the ATH. And special emphasis was placed on the downward trend that has been going on since March 14, 2024. As a very important resistance, the unsuccessful breakdown of which on May 20 already sent the price into correction.

The situation repeated itself. The price squeezed to $70,681, breaking through the trend line and almost testing the volume level of $70,780. And after that, a correction began, a trip for lower liquidity. So far -4.5%.

Also during this decline, the price broke through the local downward trend support since May 14. While the price is below the volume level of $68,232, the “magnets” are the volume levels of $67,088 and $65,892.

Between them are the layers of daily candles on May 23 and 24, behind which the nearest liquidity of the bulls is hidden. And the EMA of the 50 day TF is already close to $65,892, currently $65,435. The most important support, below which one cannot consolidate in the scenario of going to ATH in the near future. In the review dated May 24 last week, we gave a 60-70% probability for the test scenario for this EMA. And if its probability dropped over the weekend, then an unsuccessful breakout of the downward trend since March 14 is again a reason to wait for this particular scenario to work out. 

An important point is that the price was pushed up by the news, it was shed on the FUD classic - the theme of the Mt.Gox crypto exchange hacked in 2014 for 850,000 BTC. Now Mt.Gox has 142,000#BTCand 143,000#BCHleft to pay out. According to Arkham Intelligence,#WhaleAlertand#CryptoQuantservices, today Mt.Gox began actively moving BTC to a new previously unknown address for the first time in 5 years.

A series of transactions totaling 107,467 BTC (more than $7 billion) were carried out. This may be part of efforts to repay debts to platform creditors. There has been no official information yet on the reasons for the movement of assets. We remind you that the deadline for refunds is set for October 2024.

BTC reacted negatively to the news, going below $68,000. Other assets that are not affected by the topic, such as ETH and related tokens like ENS, did not show any negative results.

The market fears that Mt.Gox will begin distributing BTC and that crypto exchanges that have received BTC from the hack will begin to drain them. Although both expectations are untenable. Firstly, it is far from a fact that people who understand the value of BTC since 2014 will begin to drain it. Secondly, with the current appetite of issuers of spot Bitcoin ETFs, this volume could create volatility in a one-time sale. But it is unlikely to be able to do so if sales are distributed in parts across the market. And it will not be able to bring down the rate. As a manipulation for long squeezes, this topic is suitable. But in reality it does not pose a threat to the market.

$BTC