Bitcoin halving has always been seen as a catalyst for launching a bull market. The last two years before each halving event were dominated by short sellers. However, before the fourth halving in April this year, the situation changed. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of nearly $74,000 in March, the first time a new high has appeared before a halving event.
This is mainly driven by the hype surrounding the launch of the US Bitcoin spot ETF. Since the middle of last year, Bitcoin began to rise step by step under the market's optimistic expectation that the first batch of Bitcoin spot ETFs would be approved for listing. After it was approved for listing by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early January this year, it became the driving force that stimulated Bitcoin to break through its historical highs.
In the first few weeks of the Bitcoin spot ETF's listing, capital inflows continued to surge. Although demand has slowed in the past few weeks, the price of Bitcoin is still between $60,000 and $70,000, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in the second half of this year, which is generally seen as a positive factor for risky assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Is Bitcoin in the middle of a bull run?
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently wrote that Bitcoin is in the middle of a bull market cycle. He shared a chart pointing out that Bitcoin's actual market value is growing faster than its realized market value. This trend usually lasts about 2 years. If this pattern continues, the bull market cycle may end in April 2025.
Image source: CryptoQuant
Previously, Ki Young Ju shared data on the Bitcoin network’s computing power/market value ratio, pointing out that the current fundamentals of the Bitcoin network may support as much as three times the current market value, which means that Bitcoin may reach a price of $265,000.
Image source: CryptoQuant
It is worth noting that the anonymous analyst PlanB agrees with Ki Young Ju that there will still be a halving this time. He previously stated that the rise of Bitcoin will be triggered again by halving, and Bitcoin will rise above US$100,000 in 2024 and will rise above US$300,000 in 2025.
Altcoin rotation and Bitcoin consensus forecast
Cyclical changes in Bitcoin and altcoins: After the halving event in April this year, May was mainly an adjustment period to test and hone the patience and determination of retail investors. However, according to analysis, the market will usher in an explosive period from mid-to-late June to July, when the long-awaited bull market will officially start. Starting from July, Bitcoin and the entire market are expected to enter a stage of sustained growth, which will be a key moment for the global consensus on Bitcoin. By then, both retail and institutional investors will enter a frenzy of buying (FOMO).
Rapid rotation of altcoins: In the altcoin market, the rotation of sectors is very fast. For example, on the evening of May 3, the inscription currency led the rise, followed by the rise of animal coins on the morning of May 4, and the AI sector began to rise in the afternoon of May 5. This pattern shows that a sector becomes active every 20 hours.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
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