According to historical cycle data, Bitcoin’s recent recovery suggests that Bitcoin has escaped the post-halving downtrend.
Bitcoin shows bullish signs, moves out of post-halving ‘danger zone’.
Strong support around $60,000 suggests that the upside momentum is likely to resume.
Leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin [BTC] has recently shown slight signs of bullishness, pushing its trading price above the $63,000 mark before settling at around $62,013.
This move suggests a tentative recovery from the previous lows and a potential shift in market dynamics.
Is Bitcoin’s most dangerous phase over?
Crypto market analyst Rekt Capital recently highlighted that Bitcoin may have passed its most dangerous phase after the halving, a period that usually sees major corrections.
Based on historical data, such “danger zones” are often followed by a phase of re-accumulation, and Bitcoin’s recent bounce from key support levels could signal the start of such a trend.
Bitcoin’s journey after the halving has been fraught with volatility. After peaking in mid-March, the cryptocurrency experienced a 23% decline, hitting a low of $56,800 on May 1.
This price point could represent the bottom of the post-halving downturn, marking a critical moment for investors and traders.
Rekt Capital noted that
“If $56,000 is not the bottom, then the current pullback will officially equal the longest retracement of this cycle (63 days). Yet history shows that the current pullback ends at $56,000 and 47 days.”
This observation is in line with the asset’s recent rebound above $63,000 yesterday, suggesting that the asset is back in a re-accumulation phase.
Future Forecasts and Technology Insights
While historical trends provide a roadmap, they are no guarantee of future results. Market volatility and sideways movements remain possible. However, RektCapital noted that
“Bitcoin is showing early signs of slowing seller momentum, inching towards support at $60,000.”
This support must hold for a sustainable recovery to occur. If successful, Bitcoin could return to higher levels, potentially reaching $68,000.
This forecast is supported by technical analysis and current market sentiment.
Santiment, a well-known analytics platform, has observed an increase in Bitcoin funding rates on exchanges such as DyDx and Deribit.
This growth could be a double-edged sword, indicating growing interest but also a risk of repeating past market tops.
Santiment revealed that to avoid a repeat of last week’s downturn, bullish momentum must be moderate, with the ratio of short positions being equal to or higher than long positions.
On the technical front, Bitcoin’s daily chart shows that there is short-term bearish pressure due to the recent lower lows.
However, zooming in on the 30-minute chart shows Bitcoin tapping into liquidity in the $63,000 region, suggesting a short-term sell-off towards the $60,000 swing low could occur before any major bullish reversal.
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