From May 6 to May 13, Bitcoin reached a high of 65,550 and a low of nearly 60,000, with a fluctuation range of about 8%. Looking at the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 60,000, which will provide some support.

Long-term insights

The total spot selling pressure on the chain has reached a staged point, which means that if the market may not be in a bear market, then whether it is in a shock or a slow bull market in the future, it has a certain reminder effect, that is, it confirms the staged low point of the market.

Grayscale's ETF positions did not sell on the last trading day, and the number of sales is decreasing. The current ETF sales in the market come from BlackRock.

Long-term participants began to increase their holdings. They tended to sell their chips at the peak or high point of the bull market, and tended to collect chips in the bear market. Therefore, these groups played a decisive role in the price and the market. Currently, 3-5 year participants are the main buyers of the market.

The LTH Pricing Range represents the price levels at which LTH holds significant profits (150% and 350%) or losses (-25%). When prices move above or below these levels, it typically results in heavy selling by the group.

Take profit when LTH is holding 350%+ profit and selling rate is high right now.

Capitulation occurred when LTH held -25%+ losses and selling is currently high.

At present, these key points can be used as a reference;

The cost basis of long-term holders is currently at 20510, the price at which long-term participants lose 25% is 15,383 USD, and the profit of long-term participants at 150% is 30,766 USD. The profit of long-term participants at 350% is about 71,787 USD.

If the market moves upward in the future, the 350% profit of long-term participants is around 71,800, which needs to be paid close attention to. It may be the psychological pressure point of the market. The holding cost of long-term participants often means one of the bottom prices in a bear market, and it also needs to be paid close attention to in the future bear market.

Mid-term exploration

As online sentiment continues to slow down and decline, the overall weakening liquidity in the market may be in a consolidation stage.

The meaning of realized real capital is the product of the number of chips and their cost, which is the total amount of funds actually injected into the market. The value is still in a downward phase in the past month, which may mean that the short-term funds in the market are decreasing. This will lead to a shortage of funds in the market, which is in the area of ​​stock competition, that is, liquidity contraction, which is only temporarily suspended at present.

The exchange is currently gradually reducing inflows, and at the same time, the overall situation is also entering a state of weak accumulation. It is possible that the market is also in a period of exchanging time for space.

Short-term observation

BTC continues its volatile trend, and the current risk factor is in a neutral zone. Judging from the risk factor alone, the volatile trend may continue this week.

Both option trading volume and put option ratio are at relatively low levels.

The continued volatility of the market has not caused panic selling, and the market's positive sentiment is also at a low level. The current price is close to the short-term holder cost line of 60K. This week, we will continue to pay attention to the panic of loss.

Newly added and active addresses are at a low level. Spot and selling pressure are in an overall outflow accumulation state, and selling pressure is low.

There is no high-weight selling pressure at present. Global purchasing power is lost in large quantities, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is basically flat.

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 59,000 and 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000.

The crypto market currently relies on the mainstream market, and the corresponding monetary policy will give rise to the same direction of the market. At present, after experiencing the initial excitement of the interest rate cut discussion, the market is waiting for the confirmation of the interest rate cut time to enter the bull market in the era of monetary easing (Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley believe that the Fed will cut interest rates on July 31).

Historically, cryptocurrencies have generally seen relatively flat markets in the summer. In a high-interest environment, the size of U.S. money market funds has reached several new highs, rising to $6.03 trillion.

Once the interest rate cut occurs, from 5.5% to 2.5%, money market funds will look for new investable targets, such as risky assets, gold, and crypto assets, which will once again give birth to better market conditions.

Long term

1. The total spot selling pressure shows that the market has reached a stage low;

2. Grayscale ETF, but no selling occurred in the last trading day;

3. Participants who hold coins for 3-5 years are the main buyers and eaters in the current market;

4. Then the 35% profit of long-term participants is around 71,800, which needs to be paid special attention to, as it may be the psychological pressure point of the market.

The market is oscillating and bottoming out. The market is in a state of slight accumulation with weak liquidity, and a change of stock point is needed.

The overall market sentiment is neutral. Although the selling pressure is at a low level, the market activity and purchasing power are relatively insufficient. The current market is once again fluctuating to test the price range near the cost line of short-term holders. The short-term market may be brewing a change. Be aware of the risks and pay attention to tonight's CPI.

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