Beware of the risk of stablecoins falling. Grayscale finally reversed and wiped out the air force?

In less than 4 months after the ETF was passed, Grayscale basically outflowed BTC every day except for weekends. In the past 110 days or so, Grayscale's holdings have shrunk from more than 600,000 to about 291,200 today.

Finally, things have reversed.

Grayscale began to flow in?

Yesterday's data showed that Grayscale GBTC had a net inflow of funds for the first time, with an amount of US$63 million.

Although not much. But at least it is a turning point.

In addition, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Hong Kong ETFs have all had a large inflow in the past two days.

According to the latest research report from JPMorgan Chase, retail investors have played a greater role in the recent sell-off.

Another data shows that ordinary investors withdrew US$600 million in a week.

There are also data that in the past 6 months, about 74% of Bitcoin has not been transferred.

From every little detail, who is selling? Who is buying?

The simplest and most primitive routine is to make retail investors surrender their chips and smash the market through a series of negative news and true and false news media. This is a trick that the dog dealers play to perfection.

So I say that before entering this circle, everyone should be prepared, prepare positions, be prepared to embrace the plunge, and be prepared to adjust their mentality.............

This continuous rebound may catch many contract short-order users off guard, and these people are obviously not prepared because they believe in the market sentiment and have formed inertial thinking.

Although there will definitely be fluctuations in the subsequent market, there is also a great possibility that it will go one-sided for a period of time. This should be noted.

Let's talk about a piece of news I saw today.

On May 3, the offshore RMB rose above 7.19 against the US dollar, reaching the strongest level since March. The RMB has risen against the US dollar for three consecutive days.

One of the reasons for this situation is that after the Fed meeting, the macro market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have increased.

In fact, even if there was no meeting this time, the US dollar would fall, especially against the RMB.

The rise of the US dollar originated from the interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve. After the exchange rate broke 7, the interest rate hike gradually ended, and it was natural to reach the peak.

I specifically mentioned this point of view in my article on April 30.

You can verify the 9 predictions in my article on April 30th. After half a year, many of them may come true (some are already approaching slowly).

If the interest rate is cut, the US dollar is likely to fall. If the US dollar exchange rate starts to fall, what chain reactions will there be?

Stablecoins will also fall. Large funds need to consider risks, but small funds don’t care.

If the US dollar falls (over-the-counter liquidity increases) and stablecoins fall (on-site liquidity increases), some funds will avoid risks, flee the US dollar market, or buy BTC, which may inject a lot of liquidity into the market.

The interest rate cut will cause the US dollar to fall, and the release of water will also increase liquidity in the market.

Therefore, I personally think that the expected speculation before the interest rate cut has begun to warm up. Spot goods can be flat, and contract leverage should be wary of unilateral rising markets.

On April 30, the V-shaped trend of the market was predicted in advance, and it has been achieved in the short term. #灰度GBTC资金流出趋势结束了吗？ #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？