On Thursday (April 11), the US dollar index rose to 105.22, and gold fell back to $2,334. Shorts are in power. The United States issued a heavy warning that Iran and its proxies are about to launch attacks on Israeli military and government sites, which would mark a serious expansion of the conflict in the Middle East. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is overheated, and the possibility of a rate cut in June has dropped significantly. Bitcoin rebounded to $70,000, and the bulls and bears were at odds. The price of the currency flashed a halving buying trend.
The possibility of a rate cut in June has dropped sharply due to overheated US CPI
The CPI for March showed that the overall inflation rate rose to 3.5% year-on-year in March, higher than 3.2% in February and better than the expected 3.4%.
The core CPI measure, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, reflected February's gains, with an annual increase of 3.8% in March. Both the headline CPI and the core CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, beating analysts' expectations of a 0.3% rise.
The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has plummeted to 20%.
U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.93%, the 5-year Treasury yield at 4.56%, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.51%. All three yields rose by more than 2%.
Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March meeting revealed officials’ persistent uncertainty about inflation but did not offer any new insights on monetary policy.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bears attempt to capture aggressive bulls
Bitcoin is hovering around $70,000, indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears. The countdown to the new round of Bitcoin Halving is about 9 days. Every time the Bitcoin blockchain generates 210,000 blocks, that is, about every four years, the miner block reward will be halved. After this halving, the miner reward will be reduced from 6.25 to 3.125.
In the history of Bitcoin, halving events have occurred three times so far, and halving events are closely related to the bull market cycle of the entire crypto market. Historically, after each halving, the price of Bitcoin has risen rapidly in 6 to 12 months and reached a record high.
CoinTelegraph noted that Bitcoin broke out of a symmetrical triangle on April 8, but the bears pulled the price back into the triangle on April 9, which shows that the bears are trying to capture the aggressive bulls.
A small positive in favor of the buyers is that they are trying to buy on the dip to the 20-day exponential moving average at $68,497. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, bitcoin will again try to break out of the overhead resistance at $73,777. If that happens, the pair can rally to $80,000 and above it to $84,000.
Conversely, if the price dips below the 20-day EMA, the bears will sense an opportunity and pull the pair to the uptrend line. A breakout and close below the triangle will indicate the start of a corrective phase towards $60,000 and eventually the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $54,298.
